The vast majority of lucrative NFL free agent signings fail to pan out, but the 2023 class was certainly different. While many of the more pricey signings flopped mightily, there was also no shortage of big-named guys who lived up to or even outperformed their new contracts.
With the regular season in the books, let’s dive into the five worst NFL free agent signings of 2023…and the five absolute best.
Worst: Jimmy Garoppolo
This contract seemed like a mistake from day one. Lo and behold, it took the Las Vegas Raiders six games to punt on the Jimmy G experiment.
After cutting Derek Carr, the Raiders pivoted to the oft-injured Garoppolo and handed him a three-year contract worth $72.75 million. The hope was that Garoppolo would provide stability at QB with head coach Josh McDaniels — Jimmy G’s OC in New England — leading the way.
Garoppolo missed two games in the first half of the season to injury, but the final straw was a Week 8 outing against the Detroit Lions. Garoppolo completed 10 of 21 pass attempts for 126 yards, no touchdowns and one interception in a 26-14 loss.
Rookie Aidan O’Connell took over as the starter from there, finishing with a 5-and-5 record that helped beloved interim head coach Antonio Pierce retain the HC position.
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Jimmy G’s season ended with 1,205 passing yards in seven game appearances, seven touchdowns and nine interceptions.
If he was an average Joe in Kyle Shanahan’s star-studded offense, what made the Raiders think Garoppolo would be a superstar again? Someone make it make sense!
Best: Baker Mayfield
Go through just about every NFL expert’s season predictions ahead of Week 1, and you’ll see just about all of them ranking the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a bottom three or five team.
The Bucs lost Tom Brady to retirement and carried over $80 million in dead money for 2023. So how on earth were they supposed to do anything good this year with Baker Mayfield — on his fourth team in three years — replacing the GOAT?
Mayfield accepted a one-year pact worth $4 million from the desperate and cap-strapped Bucs, eventually winning the starting QB job over Kyle Trask. If anything, Baker was gonna struggle mightily and essentially help Tampa tank for a top-five pick…right?
Not so fast.
Playing with a chip on his shoulder, the former first overall pick instead pieced together a career year with 4,044 passing yards and 28 touchdowns against only 10 interceptions. The Bucs just BARELY won the NFC South over the New Orleans Saints via tiebreaker with a 9-and-8 record.
Continuing the magic, Baker and the Bucs crushed the defending NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles on Super Wild Card Weekend…before narrowly falling to Dan Campbell’s Detroit Lions in the Divisional Round.
Somehow, the Bucs were better with Mayfield in 2023 than they were with Brady last year. As it turns out, Mayfield never was a draft bust. He just needed to find a team that believed in him — one that would build the offense around him. Mayfield’s a starter in this league, and hopefully it’ll be with the Bucs long-term. A division title and a playoff win for $4 million? That’s an all-time coupe by GM Jason Licht.
Worst: Derek Carr
Carr’s first season with the New Orleans Saints had mixed results. But when a team pays a quarterback $150 million over four years, “mixed results” ain’t gonna cut it. You gotta bring your A-game.
Unfortunately, Carr didn’t really do that until the final quarter or so of the season.
The Saints had one of football’s softest schedules this year, and they played in the league’s worst division. Carr was supposed to jump-start a talented offense featuring Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara and Juwan Johnson and get them back into the postseason.
But Carr’s first year with the Saints was marred by inconsistent play, temper tantrums and blowups on his teammates. He finished with just 3,878 passing yards on the year, with the 228.1 passing yards per contest marking Carr’s lowest average since his 2014 rookie year.
Carr had 25 touchdowns against eight interceptions, which doesn’t look bad on paper at first glance. But he went four games without a single TD pass, and he only had multiple passing TDs in eight of the Saints’ 17 games.
His final stat line looks solid because Carr led New Orleans to a 4-and-1 finish, but his play was mediocre at best for the first three quarters of the year. He left it too little too late, and the Saints finished 9-and-8 to miss out on the postseason for the third straight year.
It’s not a stretch to suggest that 2024 will be Carr’s last chance to show not only the Saints, but every other NFL team that he’s a capable long-term starting QB option.
Best: Samson Ebukam
Looking to bolster their pass rush, the Indianapolis Colts signed the former Los Angeles Ram and San Francisco 49er to a three-year deal worth $24 million.
It felt like nothing more than a depth signing, yet all Ebukam did was turn in his best season yet under first-year head coach Shane Steichen.
Ebukam finished as the Colts’ sacks leader with 9.5, having also provided three forced fumbles. But the stat line alone DOES NOT do justice.
Ebukam finished third in ESPN’s edge defender run stop win rankings, behind only Maxx Crosby and Will Anderson Jr. Ebukam also finished 16th in ESPN’s edge defender pass rush win rate rankings.
Ebukam’s efforts helped the Colts to a surprising 9-and-8 record — as they fell just short of making a surprise return to the postseason. But with Ebukam, DeForest Buckner and rising star Kwity Paye leading the charge on defense, the future is ultra-bright for this young Indy team.
Worst: Jawaan Taylor
Having lost All-Pro offensive tackle Orlando Brown Jr. to the rival Cincinnati Bengals in free agency, the Chiefs decided to replace him with ex-Jacksonville Jaguars standout Jawaan Taylor.
Oddly, Taylor has never been as good as Brown — yet he wound up earning more money in free agency. Taylor got a four-year, $80 million pact with KC, while the Bengals got Brown Jr. on a $64 million pact over four years.
Anywho, the switch was a disaster for the Chiefs. Taylor committed a league-high 20 penalties, per Pro Football Focus, while allowing five sacks on 1,076 offensive snaps. PFF graded him at a disappointing 52.1 on the year — showing that he was basically an average player with a $20 million average annual value.
The only saving grace for Taylor? The Chiefs still had one of football’s best o-lines in 2023 led by interior linemen Trey Smith, Creed Humphrey and Joe Thunuey. So Taylor’s mostly lackluster and miserable play this year was easy to ignore thanks to the super stardom around him.
Doesn’t take away the fact that this was a big swing-and-a-miss of a signing for the defending Super Bowl champions, though.
Best: David Montgomery
After a four-year run with the Chicago Bears, Montgomery stayed in the NFC North and signed a three-year pact with the Lions worth $18 million.
The Detroit front office stunned everybody by using the No. 12 selection on Alabama running back Jahmyr Gibbs, despite already having the presence of Montgomery. Fast forward less than a year later, and now we see why the Lions made the move.
Montgomery and Gibbs formed football’s most explosive running back duo of 2023, with the former tallying 1,015 rushing yards and a career-high 13 rushing scores DESPITE missing three games.
Gibbs was no slouch himself as the RB2, compiling 945 rushing yards, 10 rushing scores and 1,261 total yards of offense. If Gibbs didn’t miss two games, the Lions would have had not one, but TWO 1,000-yard rushers.
Montgomery and Gibbs perfectly exemplified the physically punishing smash-em-in-the-mouth offense that Dan Campbell wanted. All it did was a) lead Detroit to its first division title in 30 years and b) its first postseason win AND NFC title game appearance since 1991.
Who said the running back is a devalued position? The 2023 Lions — Montgomery and Gibbs in particular — would like to have a word with that crowd.
Worst: Tremaine Edmunds
The two-time Pro Bowl linebacker was a mainstay on the Buffalo Bills’ defense under Sean McDermott. Yet he also carried plenty of risk entering free agency.
For one, Edmunds was largely supported by a superstar-studded cast on the Buffalo defense. Secondly, off-ball linebackers just aren’t worth the amount of money that he got from the Chicago bears: A whopping $72 million over four years.
Now, Edmunds did record a career-high four sacks to go along with seven interceptions and 113 combined tackles. But he was also a major liability in coverage, allowing a 78.5 completion percentage when targeted for 450 yards and three touchdowns, according to Pro Football Reference.
PFF also had him traded at just 56.6 — a far cry from the 79.0 grade he posted a year ago with the Bills.
So the Bears basically got replaceable-player-caliber play from their $72 million man. You don’t have to be great at math to realize what a colossal disappointment of a signing this was for GM Ryan Poles and company.
The one silver lining? There’s nowhere for Edmunds to go but up after a disappointing first year in the Windy City.
Best: Jessie Bates III
You probably didn’t find many — if any — folks who understood the Atlanta Falcons’ decision to hand the ex-Bengals safety a lucrative four-year deal worth $64.02 million last spring.
It was simply too much money for a good-not-great safety that had one excellent season on his resume. Hindsight is 20/20, but now we see why the Falcons paid Bates like a superstar.
Bates single-handedly transformed Atlanta’s defense into one of football’s best units. He tallied a career-high six interceptions to go along with 11 pass defenses, three forced fumbles and 132 combined tackles. Those latter two marks were also career-bests for Bates.
Per Pro Football Reference, Bates also allowed just a 67.1 passer rating when targeted — the best mark of his career. Finally, Pro Football Focus had him graded at 90.6 — putting himself in the category of football’s elite defensive backs.
Worst: JuJu Smith-Schuster
The New England Patriots made the mind-numbing mistake of letting top wide receiver Jakobi Meyers walk to free agency. Bill Belichick decided to replace Meyers with the oft-injured JuJu Smith-Schuster, handing the speedy wideout a three-year deal worth $25.5 million.
Belichick forgot the obvious that Smith-Schuster simply had a great year for the Chiefs because he was playing for Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. As expected, Smith-Schuster was a non-factor on a lousy Patriots offense that was more unwatchable than the fourth Jaws movie.
Smith-Schuster, dealing with a well-documented knee injury, missed six games and finished with only 29 receptions for 260 yards and a touchdown.
Meyers, on the other hand, had 71 receptions for 807 yards and a career-high eight touchdowns. And that was despite playing second-fiddle to superstar Davante Adams in Sin City.
All we can say is, Belichick’s decision to swap out Meyers for Smith-Schuster was just one of many mistakes that ultimately led to his departure from Foxborough. It was time for a change, alright.
Best: Javon Hargrave
After losing to Hargrave and the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Championship Game, the 49ers saw the golden opportunity to turn an enemy into an ally.
After hitting the open market, the star defensive tackle left Philly to sign a four-year, $81 million deal with the 49ers. Double-whammy for John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan!
Hargrave added more juice to an already-scary 49ers front seven led by Nick Bosa and Fred Warner — tallying seven sacks and two pass defenses. As well, ESPN ranked Hargrave ninth in their pass-rush win-rate among defensive tackles.
Per ESPN’s data, Hargrave commanded the double-team on 59 percent of his pass-rushing plays. Even if he wasn’t getting after the quarterback, Hargrave was just opening the door for the likes of Bosa and Arik Armstead to create pressure.
The Eagles’ loss turned out to be a massive gain for the 49ers, who once again fielded an elite defense that propelled them to the NFC’s top seed. And a Philly team that recorded a league-high 70 sacks a year ago finished with only 43 for the 2023 season.
What can we say? It was a monumental win for the 49ers…and a big loss for the Eagles.
Which other terrible and great 2023 NFL Free agent signings should we have included on our list?
