Remember when every Sunday was a shootout? When quarterbacks like Drew Brees and Peyton Manning routinely racked up 400-yard games, and high-flying offenses lit up scoreboards across the NFL? Yeah, that was fun. But lately, something’s changed. NFL games aren’t as explosive as they used to be, and if anyone has been watching closely this season, they have probably noticed that there are fewer big passing plays, fewer touchdowns, and more checkdowns.
It’s not just your imagination. Passing production is down dramatically through the first three weeks of the 2024 NFL season. Teams have thrown for fewer than 20,000 yards, the lowest figure since 2008. Air yards per attempt are at their lowest since tracking began in 2006. Sacks are up, big plays are down, and touchdowns are way more challenging to come by. So, what happened to the NFL’s high-scoring, big-play offense? Why does it feel like quarterbacks are playing it safe? Let’s dive in and break it down.
The Rise Of Split Safety Defenses
One of the biggest reasons for the decline in explosive offense is that defenses are playing smarter and safer. Over the last few seasons, NFL defenses have increasingly adopted split-safety coverages, like Cover 2, Cover 4, and Cover 6, to take away deep passing plays. Instead of bringing extra pressure or stacking the box, defenses are dropping two safeties deep, protecting themselves against the long ball.
What this means for quarterbacks is simple: fewer opportunities to bomb it downfield. When defenses play these two-deep zone coverages, quarterbacks are forced to take shorter, safer throws underneath. This has led to a league-wide drop in air yards per attempt (now just 6.7), and more checkdowns and short completions, which are essentially extensions of the running game.
Look at guys like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow—these are some of the best quarterbacks in the game, yet they’re struggling to put up explosive numbers. Burrow, for instance, has been getting the ball out in 2.21 seconds on average, the fastest of his career, but he’s only averaging 5.3 air yards per attempt this season. Sure, they’re moving the ball, but it’s less exciting and vertical.
Even veterans like Lamar Jackson and Allen are adjusting their play styles. Jackson is scrambling more (11.5% of dropbacks), while Allen still holds the ball longer (2.94 seconds) but chucks it deep less frequently. The result? Offenses are moving the ball, but not with the same explosiveness we used to see.
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Checkdown Culture: Playing It Safe
When defenses play split-safety coverages, it’s hard for quarterbacks to push the ball deep consistently. So, what do they do? They check it down. ESPN’s Mina Kimes recently dubbed this year’s quarterbacks “checkdown artists,” and she’s not wrong.
Teams are averaging 5.1 yards after the catch against these two-deep coverages, meaning QBs are making short, safe throws and relying on their receivers to make plays. This approach makes sense—it’s often the best way to attack a defense that’s committed to stopping big plays. But it’s also making the game feel a little less exciting.
Take Jared Goff, for example. Despite being a seasoned veteran, Goff has struggled against two-deep zones this season. He ranks last in expected points added (EPA) per dropback and hasn’t completed a single pass of more than 20 yards against these coverages. Goff’s lack of mobility and limited arm strength are holding him back from taking those deeper shots, and it’s hurting the Lions’ ability to put up points. Defenses are playing it smart, and offenses are playing it safe. The result? Fewer fireworks on Sundays.
Young Quarterbacks Are Struggling
Another factor that’s dragging down NFL passing numbers is the influx of young quarterbacks. Three rookies (Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Bo Nix) are starting this season, and several other young QBs are playing prominent roles. These inexperienced signal-callers are still learning the ropes, and defenses are taking full advantage.
Young quarterbacks like Williams and Nix are getting sacked at an alarming rate—9.4% of the time, to be exact, compared to a six-year average of 7.6%. Williams, in particular, has been a disaster against blitzes, taking sacks on 16.7% of his dropbacks when facing pressure.
These young guys simply don’t have the same pocket awareness or decision-making skills as veterans, and it’s showing. They’re hesitant to take risks downfield, instead opting for safer, shorter throws. This has contributed to the league-wide dip in air yards and explosive passing plays.
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Defenses Are Winning the Chess Match
One of the great truths of football is that it’s a game of adjustments, and right now, defenses are winning the chess match. NFL defenses have figured out how to limit explosive plays by sitting in split-safety coverages and daring offenses to beat them underneath.
When quarterbacks face these coverages, they’re averaging 4.09 seconds to throw on deep passes (15+ air yards), the longest in recent history. This opens up opportunities for negative plays like sacks and interceptions, making it even riskier to take those shots downfield.
Some quarterbacks, like Seattle’s Geno Smith, are still finding ways to push the ball deep. Smith has excelled at identifying defenses playing two-high coverages and taking advantage of them with perfectly timed deep routes, as we saw with DK Metcalf’s 50-yard touchdown against Miami in Week 3. But this is the exception, not the rule.
For most teams, defenses are dictating the terms of engagement, and offenses are stuck playing conservatively.
Is There Hope For A Passing Revival?
So, is this the new normal for the NFL? Will high-scoring, explosive passing games become a thing of the past? Not necessarily, but it’s going to take some gutsy playcalling to turn things around.
The key for offenses is to find ways to beat these two-deep defensive schemes. Right now, NFL quarterbacks are enjoying a 50% success rate on deep passes (15+ yards) against split-safety defenses, and they’re averaging a whopping 0.728 EPA per dropback on these throws. That’s the second-highest in the last six years!
What does this mean? Offenses need to stop playing scared. Even when the defense is playing conservative coverages, taking deep shots can pay off big. It might be riskier, but the potential reward—huge chunks of yardage, game-changing plays—is worth it.
Quarterbacks and offensive coordinators need to have the courage to dial up deep passes and let their receivers go make plays. If they do, we might see a return to the high-flying offenses of the 2010s.
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