The race for the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft is tighter than ever. Unlike last season, when the Carolina Panthers had the worst record all but locked up, this year features a four-way tie at 3-13 entering Week 18. The New England Patriots, Tennessee Titans, Cleveland Browns, and New York Giants all have a shot at securing the top pick.
Let’s break down how each team can win (or lose) the No. 1 pick and what’s at stake.
How The Patriots Can Get The No. 1 Pick?
The New England Patriots hold the top spot entering the final week, thanks to their league-worst strength of schedule (0.467). If they lose to the Buffalo Bills, who may rest their starters, they’ll clinch the No. 1 pick. But if they win, they’ll need all three other 3-13 teams to win their games as well to maintain their position.
The Patriots would have plenty of options should they earn the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, so let’s explore them. https://t.co/XHudVDXy3u
— NESN (@NESN) January 3, 2025
In the event of a tie at 4-13, New England’s weaker strength of schedule ensures they stay at the top of the draft order. It’s simple: a Patriots loss keeps them at No. 1, while a win complicates their path.
How The Titans Can Get The No. 1 Pick?
The Tennessee Titans are next in line, with a strength of schedule at 0.515. They face the Houston Texans in Week 18, a team that seems poised to play its starters, according to Texans coach DeMeco Ryans. If the Titans lose and the Patriots win, Tennessee would leapfrog to the No. 1 spot.
This scenario requires just one variable: a Tennessee loss combined with a New England win. The Titans need help, but it’s a plausible path to the top pick.
Click on ‘Follow Us’ and get notified of the most viral NFL stories via Google! Follow Us
How The Browns Can Get The No. 1 Pick?
Cleveland benefits from the Giants’ recent win over Indianapolis, which slightly boosted their chances. The Browns face a tough Week 18 matchup against the Baltimore Ravens, who are fighting for the AFC North title and the No. 3 seed in the AFC playoffs.
For Cleveland to land the top pick, they need:
- A loss to Baltimore.
- Wins by New England and Tennessee.
How the Browns can still land the No. 1 overall pick in NFL draft https://t.co/HsmA0Pr0zt pic.twitter.com/G50MeqHPbr
— The Browns Wire (@TheBrownsWire) January 1, 2025
Their strength of schedule sits at 0.540, the second-highest among the 3-13 teams. This means they need multiple outcomes to break in their favor, but it’s not out of reach.
How The Giants Can Get The No. 1 Pick?
A week ago, the New York Giants looked like the favorites for the top pick. Now, their odds are slimmer. They face a Philadelphia Eagles team resting starters in Week 18, which complicates their chances of losing.
To reclaim the No. 1 spot, the Giants need:
- A loss to the Eagles.
- Wins by New England, Tennessee, and Cleveland.
With the highest strength of schedule in the group (0.551), the Giants’ odds are the longest. However, a perfect storm of outcomes could still put them back at the top.
Also Read: How Did The New York Giants’ Win Impact The 2025 NFL Draft Order And The Top Picks In The Draft
Why Strength Of Schedule Matters
Strength of schedule (SOS) is a key tiebreaker when multiple teams finish with the same record. The team with the weakest SOS gets the higher draft pick. Here’s how the SOS stacks up for the 3-13 teams:
- New England: 0.467
- Tennessee: 0.515
- Cleveland: 0.540
- New York: 0.551
The weaker the opponents a team faced during the season, the better their odds in a tiebreaker. That’s why the Patriots hold the advantage in most scenarios.
Who Else Is In The Mix?
Five teams currently sit at 4-12 but are mathematically out of the running for the No. 1 draft pick. Even if all four 3-13 teams win and the Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12) lose, Jacksonville would only climb to the No. 2 spot. Here’s how other teams could benefit from Week 18 outcomes:
- Jacksonville Jaguars: A loss to the Indianapolis Colts could push them from No. 5 to No. 2.
- Carolina Panthers: A loss to the Atlanta Falcons could move them from No. 6 to No. 3.
- New York Jets: A loss to the Miami Dolphins could elevate them from No. 7 to No. 4.
Here's how high and low the Panthers can pick in the 2025 NFL Draft https://t.co/uAukzQBWLn
— Carolina Panthers On SI (@SI_Panthers) January 3, 2025
What To Watch In Week 18?
With so many variables, Week 18 will be a fascinating finale to the regular season. Key games include:
- Patriots vs. Bills: Will New England secure the top pick or complicate the race?
- Titans vs. Texans: Can Tennessee capitalize on Houston’s starters?
- Browns vs. Ravens: Will Cleveland’s tough matchup lead to the No. 1 spot?
- Giants vs. Eagles: Can New York lose against a backup-heavy Eagles squad?
This draft race is as unpredictable as it gets, with four teams vying for the top spot and a cascade of effects for others. Keep an eye on these matchups and prepare for a wild end to the season.
Also Read: Ranking The 5 Highest Scoring NFL Games Of All-Time
