The NFC West division race is the wildest in the NFL this season. With just a few weeks to go, all four teams—the Seahawks, Rams, Cardinals, and 49ers—are separated by only two games. From here on out, every game counts as they battle for the division title and NFL playoff spots.
Let’s break it down and see which team has the edge in the race for the NFL playoffs and division title.
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks currently lead the division with an 8-5 record. They’re in the driver’s seat—if they win out, they clinch the division. However, Seattle’s schedule is brutal. Their remaining opponents have a combined .596 winning percentage, making it the NFL’s fifth-hardest schedule. Upcoming matchups include the Packers, Vikings, Bears, and a crucial Week 18 game against the Rams.
Seattle’s tiebreaker situation isn’t ideal. They lost to the Rams in Week 9, so another loss to Los Angeles in Week 18 would hand the Rams a head-to-head sweep. Seattle also risks losing a three-way tiebreaker involving the Rams, as Los Angeles has a better divisional record (2-1 versus Seattle’s 3-2). The Seahawks need help. Their best-case scenario? The 49ers beating the Rams in Week 15 to weaken Los Angeles’ NFL divisional tiebreaker edge.
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams (7-6) are just one game behind Seattle and have a clear path to contention. They have the most NFL divisional games remaining (three) among NFC West teams, giving them a chance to improve their 2-1 divisional record significantly. A win against the 49ers in Week 15 could virtually guarantee them a top-two spot in the standings.
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Head-to-head matchups favor the Rams. They’ve already beaten the Seahawks and 49ers this season, and they’ll face both again. However, they must tread carefully against Arizona. The Cardinals beat the Rams in Week 2, and another loss in Week 17 would give Arizona the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Los Angeles’ schedule is the 21st-easiest in the league, but divisional matchups are never simple. If the Rams stay hot within the division and sweep Seattle in Week 18, they could steal the NFC West crown.
Arizona Cardinals
At 6-7, the Cardinals face an uphill climb, but their schedule offers opportunities. Arizona plays the struggling Patriots (3-10) and Panthers (3-10) in Weeks 15 and 16, respectively. Wins in those games could set up a thrilling finish with divisional matchups against the Rams and 49ers in Weeks 17 and 18.
NFC West has new leader after Week 12 https://t.co/vfS4y222rZ pic.twitter.com/jdC6QSY509
— TheCardsWire (@Cards_Wire) November 25, 2024
Arizona’s biggest advantage is its head-to-head potential. They’ve already beaten both the Rams and 49ers this season. Wins in Weeks 17 and 18 would give them critical tiebreakers in a divisional logjam. However, the Cardinals don’t fare well in ties involving the Seahawks. Seattle’s superior conference record (5-4 to Arizona’s 3-6) complicates matters unless the Rams also join the tie and help nullify Seattle’s edge.
To keep their hopes alive, Arizona can only afford one more loss. They’ll need the Seahawks to lose at least two of their next three games and for the Rams to stumble against either the Jets or 49ers.
Also Read: How Many Teams Receive A Bye In The NFL Playoffs?
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers (6-7) face the steepest climb in the NFC West. They’ve struggled within the division, going just 1-3 so far. Their remaining games include the Lions and Dolphins, making their schedule one of the toughest.
49ers fall way behind NFC West in NFL power rankings https://t.co/i7eIX6igg1 pic.twitter.com/WMa6FYaDk4
— Niners Wire (@TheNinersWire) December 11, 2024
Even if San Francisco wins out, they’ll need help. A 4-2 divisional record is the best they can achieve, but Seattle and the Rams can easily surpass that mark. Their best bet lies in their conference record. If the 49ers can reach six NFC wins, they’d have a slight edge in certain tiebreak scenarios.
San Francisco’s clearest path to contention involves beating both the Rams and Cardinals in Weeks 15 and 18. From there, they’d need losses from Seattle and Arizona to stay alive in the race. While unlikely, the 49ers aren’t mathematically eliminated just yet.
Four-Way Tiebreaker Scenarios
Chaos is possible in the NFC West. Kalakar how a four-way tie could unfold:
8-9 Records
For all teams to finish 8-9, the following needs to happen:
- Seahawks lose out.
- Rams win only against Seattle in Week 18.
- Cardinals beat the Patriots, Panthers, and 49ers but lose to the Rams.
- 49ers beat the Rams and Cardinals but lose to the Dolphins and Lions.
In this scenario:
- The Cardinals win by sweeping both the Rams and 49ers.
- The 49ers win if they beat the Cardinals in Week 18 and the Cardinals lose to the Patriots.
9-8 Records
For all teams to finish 9-8:
- Seahawks beat only the Rams in Week 18.
- Rams win against the Jets and Seahawks but lose to the 49ers and Cardinals.
- Cardinals win three of four, including against the Rams.
- 49ers win three of four, including against the Cardinals.
In this case:
- Seahawks win if their conference record edges out the others.
- Rams win if they sweep the Seahawks and secure more divisional wins.
- Cardinals win if they finish 4-2 in the division and avoid losing to the Patriots.
- 49ers win if their conference record tops the rest.
Who Has The Edge In The NFL Playoffs Division Title Race?
Right now, the Seahawks have control, but their brutal schedule makes the Rams the most likely challenger. The Cardinals’ easy NFL schedule gives them a puncher’s chance, while the 49ers need a miracle to win the division.
I have Seahawks fans trying to dunk on me in my mentions because I said the 49ers would easily take the NFC West. They’ve had more star injuries than any other NFL teams this year and *this* is how the NFC West looks
— Evan Sowards (@EvanSowards) December 13, 2024
Embarrassing themselves https://t.co/07gh413Ckp pic.twitter.com/ixl7PezVus
One thing is clear: the NFC West will come down to the wire, and every game matters. Buckle up—this is going to be fun.
Also Read: Which Of The NFL’s Last-Place Teams Is Best Positioned For Future Success?
