With the 2023 NFL schedule out, it’s time for us to peer into the crystal ball and see how the final regular season standings will look come January.
We’ll revisit the topic and offer updated predictions closer to Week 1. But since it’s still a while away, let’s have some fun and dive right into our way-too-early 2023 NFL win/loss projections.
Arizona Cardinals: 4-13
The Cardinals went 4-and-13 a year ago with Kyler Murray making 11 starts. He’s going to miss time in 2023 recovering from a torn ACL he suffered last December, so it’s hard to be optimistic about the Redbirds improving last year’s win total without their top QB.
Throw in a tough schedule and the fact Arizona just has football’s least-talented roster, and you have the recipe for a team that’ll be in the Caleb Williams sweepstakes.
Atlanta Falcons: 8-9
The Falcons have the league’s easiest strength of schedule for 2023, so why don’t we have them down for more W’s? Well, like last year, they play in football’s worst division — and all four NFC South clubs are going to get their fair amount of bites of the apple.
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Also, Desmond Ridder is the great unknown at quarterback. If he exceeds expectations, the Falcons will be a playoff contender. But we gotta see it to believe it, so let’s put Atlanta down for eight W’s right now.
Baltimore Ravens: 10-7
Good thing Lamar Jackson re-signed, otherwise we’d have the Ravens in the four–to-six-win range. Alas, his return — coupled with a revamped wide receiver corps — mean the Ravens are firmly in playoff contention.
Playing in the ultra-difficult AFC North makes matters complicated, but the Ravens are good enough to take at least half the divisional games there.
That said, late-season road games against the Los Angeles Chargers, Jacksonville Jaguars and San Francisco 49ers are cause for concern. In our early projections, Baltimore snags a wild card spot by the skin of their teeth.
Buffalo Bills: 12-5
Aaron Rodgers’ arrival in Gotham complicates things in the AFC East for the Bills. Also, their highly-anticipated contests against the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs will both be on the road once again.
A visit to Philadelphia in Week 12 adds another cherry on top to a brutal schedule. But this is a team with a top-five offense and defense that won 13 games last season amid a ton of emotional adversity. No reason to think they can’t get to 12-plus W’s again.
Carolina Panthers: 8-9
Carolina won seven games last year with Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold and PJ Walker as their quarterbacks. Well, first overall pick Bryce Young can only be an upgrade over those three guys.
Even if Young struggles aplenty as a rookie, Carolina’s ferocious defense and powerful ground game is enough to keep them in the playoff race. Like the Falcons, the Panthers benefit from a ridiculously weak schedule.
Chicago Bears: 5-12
The Bears were the NFL’s worst team a year ago. With unofficial franchise owner Aaron Rodgers out of the division, the Bears go from two automatic losses to two coin flip games. That much helps!
They won’t be a playoff team, but the Bears will show signs of improvement in year three of the Fields era.
Cincinnati Bengals: 11-6
The Bengals have a daunting slate of games from Week 6 to 13: vs. Seattle, bye week, at San Francisco, vs. Buffalo, vs. Houston, at Baltimore, vs. Pittsburgh and then at Jacksonville.
But it’s not like Joe Burrow and company aren’t battle-tested. They overcame slow starts and caught fire in the second half in both 2021 and 2022. They should be peaking by the time they get into the meaty part of that schedule.
Cleveland Browns: 7-10
Deshaun Watson looked horrifically rusty upon his return to the field last year. If he bounces back and regains his Houston-like form, the Browns will be a sleeper in the AFC.
But that’s a big “if.” There are too many contenders in the AFC, and the Browns have the misfortunes of playing in an unforgiving division. There are only so many wins to go around for the AFC North clubs, and the Browns as currently constructed are the worst team in the division.
Dallas Cowboys: 11-6
The Cowboys don’t have a “breather” period in any part of their schedule. Their toughest games are all spread out. The Weeks 13 to 17 slate is this: vs. Seattle, vs. Philadelphia, at Buffalo, at Miami and vs. Detroit — all teams with winning records last year.
But the Cowboys are also one of the deepest teams in football, having finished 12-5 in back-to-back years. They won’t hit 12 W’s again, but there’s too much talent here for them to fall short of double-digit victories.
Denver Broncos: 8-9
Sean Payton’s arrival can only help the Broncos improve after a disastrous first season with Russell Wilson. Just how much will Payton help? That remains to be seen.
We wouldn’t be overly-shocked if the Broncos lived up to their potential and made the postseason. But the AFC is too loaded, and they have to play Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert four times.
There will be improvement in Mile High City, but the unforgiving schedule leaves us skeptical that the Broncos will actually make the postseason.
Detroit Lions: 10-7
Is this the year the Lions finally break through and emerge as kings of the NFC North? Let’s just say Aaron Rodgers’ departure makes things that much easier…
A season opener at KC, followed by a home meeting with Seattle, isn’t an ideal start. But the schedule eases down from there. Detroit’s first double-digit wins season since 2014 feels like a safe bet to happen.
Green Bay Packers: 6-11
The Pack went 8-and-9 in the final season of the Aaron Rodgers era with a manageable schedule. Even if Jordan Love ends up being the guy, we’re skeptical he puts it all together in year one as the QB1.
This will be a year of growing pains for the Pack, who aren’t anywhere close to contending for a playoff berth. So yeah, go ahead and put them down for double-digit losses for the first time since 2008.
Houston Texans: 5-12
The Texans are still in rebuilding mode – led by rookie quarterback CJ Stroud. But they also have the third-easiest strength of schedule, so DeMeco Ryans’ squad is bound to improve last year’s win total.
Playing in the relatively weak AFC South should buy Houston a couple of extra wins compared to previous years. Playing the entire NFC South — football’s worst division — and the Arizona Cardinals also work in the Texans’ favor.
Indianapolis Colts: 4-13
Like the Texans, the Colts will benefit from a) playing in the AFC South and b) playing the entire NFC South. But this is a lousy roster that’s also fielding a rookie quarterback in Anthony Richardson.
The Colts’ schedule is also up there with the easiest in football, but they also have a real chance at being the NFL’s worst team in 2023. So we’re feeling good about putting them down for as many wins as last year’s squad…
Jacksonville Jaguars: 11-6
A sneaky note about the Jaguars roster: They’ll be the home team for their toughest games — namely against the Chiefs, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens. Their week 5 game against the Bills will be played in the neutral site of London, so that too works in Jacksonville’s favor.
Jacksonville won the AFC South with a 9-8 record last year. They’re primed to take that next step with Trevor Lawrence and Doug Pederson leading the charge in year three. Anything less than 11 wins should be considered a disappointment.
Kansas City Chiefs: 12-5
With a manageable schedule, five losses might feel a bit excessive for KC. But their division should be tougher this time around, and there are a few questions there at receiver and in the secondary.
A season series split with the Chargers feels likely. Home games vs. the Bengals and Bills, who have dominated KC in regular season play, are no gimmes. A Week 15 visit to New England is by no means a cakewalk, either.
But when all is said and done, KC will cruise to a sixth straight season of 12-plus wins.
Las Vegas Raiders: 6-11
Swapping out Derek Carr for Jimmy Garoppolo is highly unlikely to lead to different results for the black and silver. The Raiders didn’t address their o-line or leaky defense this offseason, so call it a miracle if they avoid a last-place finish in the division.
Los Angeles Chargers: 9-8
Something tells us the Bolts won’t quite rebound from last year’s gut-wrenching chokejob and playoff loss to the Jaguars in the Wild Card Round…
Playing the Chiefs twice, the entire AFC West and the Cowboys and Ravens, ain’t ideal given this team’s problems in stopping the run. They should finish with a winning record, but matching or topping last season’s win total feels like a stretch at this time.
Los Angeles Rams: 6-11
We hate betting against a Sean McVay-coached team, but the top-heavy Rams roster lost Jalen Ramsey and Bobby Wagner this offseason. Hard to see Matt Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald making up for the roster’s other flaws on their own…
The Rams won’t be a threat to the 49ers or Seahawks in the NFC West, and playing the entire AFC North makes things even more miserable. Expect another longggg year in La La Land.
Miami Dolphins: 9-8
We really want to put Miami down for double-digit wins, but the AFC is just too stacked with quality teams. And there are only so many W’s to go around in that conference…
Nonetheless, a healthy Tua Tagovailoa can make a difference and keep Miami in playoff contention.
Minnesota Vikings: 9-8
The law of averages state that the Vikings will regress after winning 11 one-score games last season, an NFL record.
That, coupled with all the question marks on defense, suggest they’ll be closer to a seven-to-nine-win team in 2023 after going 13-4 last season. But with too much offensive firepower, they should finish above .500 again.
New England Patriots: 8-9
If Bill O’Brien can help Mac Jones regain his strong 2021-like form, the Pats will be contenders. That’s a big “if” though.
Jones is the fourth-best quarterback in the AFC East, though. So can the Patriots really make noise in the gauntlet of a division…and in a conference with so many legitimate contenders? We’ll believe it when we see it.
New Orleans Saints: 10-7
Someone has to win the miserable NFC South, and the Saints just so happen to have the most proven QB in the division as well as the league’s second-best strength of schedule.
We aren’t sure what to expect of Derek Carr in New Orleans, but he has enough talent around him to keep the Saints afloat. And their defense, a top-10 unit, will do more than enough to help New Orleans claim its first division title in three years.
New York Giants: 10-7
The G-Men squeaked into the postseason with a 9-7-1 record last year. Swap out a tie for an extra win, and you have another double-digit win team that should be a playoff team again.
Daniel Jones should build off a career year with Darren Waller and Jalin Hyatt in the fold, and the young defense should take more steps forward. It should be another exciting year for a team finally trending in the right direction.
New York Jets: 10-7
It will take time for Aaron Rodgers to gel with his new team. And yes, the Jets are playing in a division that features three other playoff contenders.
But this is still Mr. Rodgers, and the Jets won seven games with awful QB play a year ago. Surely, a four-time MVP and future Hall of Famer moves the needle by at least three W’s….right?
Philadelphia Eagles: 12-5
They might have football’s best roster, but asking for 14 wins again with this schedule may be too much. The Eagles are in that upper tier of Super Bowl contenders, but in a game that comes down to one or two bounces, we can expect them to drop a couple more regular season contests this year.
Season series splits with the Giants and Cowboys feel likely. Two losses against AFC East opponents ain’t out of the question, either. And then pick one more trap game as a loss. 12-5 feels like a safe guess here.
Pittsburgh Steelers: 10-7
The Steelers won nine games in a rebuilding year last season. So of course they’ll improve in year two of the Kenny Pickett era.
Most of their difficult games take place at Acrisure Stadium, so there’s a nice advantage. Playing in the unforgiving AFC North means it’ll be tough to push for 11-plus wins, but the talent on this roster has us confident that they’ll at least top last year’s win total.
San Francisco 49ers: 13-4
If Brock Purdy is healthy and good to go come Week 1, the 49ers are the team to beat in the NFC. They had the No. 1 defense a year ago, and their offense has all the makings to be a top-five unit.
The Week 1 contest in Pittsburgh feels like a trap game, and sweeping the Seahawks again feels like a tall task. Road games in Jacksonville and Philly also feel like should-be-losses. But without a doubt, Kyle Shanahan’s squad will be in contention for the conference’s top seed again.
Seattle Seahawks: 11-6
The Seahawks crushed the draft and added Bobby Wagner and Dre’Mont Jones to their front seven. They should definitely top last year’s win total of nine and push for the conference’s top seed.
Expect at least one loss at the hands of the 49ers and at least two defeats courtesy of AFC North clubs. With questions in the secondary, the Hawks will take some time to gain their top form — so 11 wins feel like a safe guess here.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 5-12
The Bucs went 8-and-9 last year with Tom Brady as their QB. They now have the worst quarterback room in the conference, and core players on both sides of the ball are getting up there in age.
T’was a nice three-year run with TB12, but the ol’ Bucs’ days of mediocrity return here.
Tennessee Titans: 7-10
Will Levis was a great long-term pick by the Titans in round two, but he’s unlikely to see much playing time as a rookie.
This feels like a transition year for a Tennessee team that should rebuild sooner rather than later, so a second straight year of double-digit losses is the likely outcome.
Washington Commanders: 5-12
The Commanders are putting the eggs in the basket of Sam Howell. Good luck with that, especially considering that each of Washington’s division rivals qualified for the postseason last year.
A gauntlet of a schedule with few “winnable” games makes things less encouraging. It should be a long year in Dc.
Who do you think will finish with the best record in the NFL this year?
