We’re near the midpoint of the 2023 NFL season, and we now have a firm idea on all 32 teams and their respective identities.
As always, there have been many pleasant surprises, a handful of teams and players that have been colossal letdowns up to this point.
With that said, let’s dive into the five biggest surprises of 2023 and the five biggest disappointments of the 2023 NFL campaign thus far.
Surprise: Chiefs Defense > Chiefs Offense
Did the Kansas City Chiefs defense play vital roles in the club’s Super Bowl 54 and 57 championship-winning seasons? Of course. But make no mistake — this team mostly won because of the Andy Reid-Patrick Mahomes-Travis Kelce-led offensive wizardry.
Even just last year, KC was a mere 16th in scoring defense. After losing Juan Thornhill, Frank Clark and Carlos Dunlap in the offseason, it just felt like Mahomes and the offense would have to do more heavy lifting here in 2023.
Nope. It’s been the total opposite, actually.
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While the Chiefs offense struggled with consistency over the first six weeks, the defense continued to save the day. Through their first seven games, the Chiefs’ D allowed the seventh-fewest yards and the second-fewest points per game…and they ranked sixth against the pass.
How terrifying of a thought it must be for the entire NFL that the Chiefs’ main strength is Steve Spagnuolo’s group — not the unit led by the best player in the world.
Disappointment: Los Angeles Chargers
It might feel weird putting the Bolts on here because of the whole “Chargers gonna Charger” thing, but we did not expect it to be this bad.
Usually, the Chargers wait until big games to choke. But they haven’t even “choked” this year. They’ve just been straight-up bad at football.
Kellen Moore was supposed to help take Justin Herbert and this offense to another level. It hasn’t happened.
Yes, Austin Ekeler and Mike Williams missed time — but the Chargers used their first-round pick on TCU wideout Quentin Johnston. And Josh Kelley and Joshua Palmer could have picked up the slack amid the Chargers’ string of injuries.
Once again, the defense has been a total sieve — even with Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack and Morgan Fox forming a fearsome pass-rushing trio.
The finger can be pointed at head coach Brandon Staley, who continues to baffle everybody with his awful fourth quarter game management. At what point does GM Tom Telesco take the hint and switch coaches?
The Chargers’ ugly week 7 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs dropped them to 2-4 on the year. Just look at how stacked the rest of the AFC is. There’s absolutely no chance the Bolts get on a hot second half run and steal a wild card spot from a team like Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Cincinnati or the Jets.
Surprise: Dolphins Have An Unstoppable Ground Game
Everyone knew how dangerous the Miami Dolphins’ aerial attack was a year ago WITH Tua Tagovailoa on the field.
Tua averaged a league-best 13.7 yards per completion in 2022 and finished with the top QB rating at 105.5. Everyone figured that Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle would humiliate opposing defenses again this year — but who saw this offense reaching a new level because of a suddenly explosive rushing game?
The oft-injured 31-year-old journeyman Raheem Mostert racked up 474 rushing yards and 11 total touchdowns in Miami’s first seven games. Rookie De’Von Achane had 460 rushing yards and five rushing TDs in his first four games before going on the IR with a knee injury.
The 17-game schedule obviously helps matters, but Miami will seriously challenge the 2013 Denver Broncos’ record of points scored in a single season with 606.
It’s absolutely unbelievable for a team to have two potential 1,000-yard rushers in today’s pass-happy NFL. Who especially thought Miami would have it with Mostert and a little-known rookie in Achane?
Miami’s passing game gets all the love, but this offense wouldn’t be so historic without the Mostert-Achane duo. This tandem has teamed up for one of the biggest pleasant surprises in recent NFL memory, alright.
Disappointment: Las Vegas Raiders Offense
We didn’t expect the Raiders to be a Super Bowl contender, but we expected this offense to be close to a top-10 unit… or at least not a group near the very bottom of every meaningful category.
Yes, Jimmy Garoppolo has missed time again with injuries. But Josh Jacobs, the league’s reigning rushing champ, had just 347 yards over Vegas’ first seven games.
In that period, he averaged 49.6 yards per game — essentially half of the 97.2 he averaged a year ago. Through Week 7, the Raiders were averaging a league-low 68.6 rushing yards per game.
After a 172-yard outing against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 3, Davante Adams followed it up with four straight games of 75 or less receiving yards and ZERO touchdowns.
Michael Mayer was widely regarded as the best tight end of the 2023 draft class. He had 10 catches for 129 yards and zero touchdowns in his first seven games. Former Pro Bowler and 1,000-yard wideout Hunter Renfrow is on pace for the worst season of his career.
Be it Jimmy G, Brian Hoyer or Aidan O’Connell at QB, the Raiders aren’t moving the ball despite a ridiculous set of playmaking weapons. Free agent pickup Jakobi Meyers has been the lone bright spot, which is good for his fantasy football owners.
But he should be this team’s third or fourth-best offensive piece. Not their only consistent one, hence why the Raiders look doomed for another losing and non-playoff season.
Surprise: The Jets Haven’t Sunk Without Aaron Rodgers
The moment the New York Jets completed a trade for Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, Gang Green became a bonafide Super Bowl contender.
The moment Rodgers tore his Achilles minutes into his debut against the Buffalo Bills in Week 1? Just like that, it seemed like the Jets’ hopes of ending a 13-year playoff drought had gone down the drain.
Though New York managed to upset Buffalo in Week 1, they proceeded to lose three straight games due largely to Zach Wilson’s atrocious play. But the Jets actually narrowly upset Patrick Mahomes’ Kansas City Chiefs in Week 4, narrowly falling 23-20 despite containing the reigning MVP for much of the game.
After a Week 5 road win over the Denver Broncos, the Jets stunned the high-powered Philadelphia Eagles offense by a final score of 20-14. New York’s D flexed its muscles by picking off Jalen Hurts three times.
With that, the Jets improved to 3-3. And who’s to say their season is over? Even with Wilson’s limitations, Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson have been total beasts on offense. The Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams-led defense has given Mahomes, Hurts and Josh Allen all headaches. And you know what they say: Defense wins championships.
Robert Saleh’s group has truly embraced the underdog role without Rodgers. And in case you missed it, the four-time league MVP is adamant that he’ll beat his surgery recovery timeline and return this season.
That remains to be seen. But the fact these Jets have rallied together without the future Hall of Fame QB — against a tough schedule, no less — is certainly surprising. It’s also a testament to Saleh’s coaching.
Disappointment: New York Giants
A lot of people thought the Brian Daboll-led Giants were big-time overachievers last year.
Others were bullish on them, and for good reason. This team reached the Divisional Round a year ago and upgraded the weaponry around Daniel Jones by landing Pro Bowl tight end Darren Waller and speedy rookie wideout Jalin Hyatt.
Throw in inevitable growth from youngsters in Jones, Andrew Thomas, Evan Neal, Kayvon Thibodeaux, Dexter Lawrence, Xavier McKinney, and the Giants had the makings to be a playoff team again…and potentially a Super Bowl darkhorse with the reigning Coach of the Year leading the way.
Or not.
Jones has regressed to his pre-2022 self. In other words, he’s awful again.
Barkley missed time with injury, and nobody on offense picked up the slack without him. The offensive line has been arguably football’s worst, though of course Thomas’ absence with a hamstring injury didn’t help matters.
Even with rookie corner Deonte Banks playing like a Pro Bowler, and even with Thibodeaux enjoying a breakout year, the Giants’ defense has been a mess.
This team is near the very bottom in just about every meaningful offensive and defensive category, and the uninspiring play is sure to cost them a playoff spot. Too bad, because that last NFC Wild Card spot looks like it’ll be wide-open all season long.
Surprise: CJ Stroud & DeMeco Ryans Powering A Texans’ Playoff Push
The Texans hiring of DeMeco Ryans as head coach received universal acclaim across the nFL world.
And nobody was shocked nor disappointed when they selected Ohio State’s CJ Stroud with the No. 2 pick, right after the Carolina Panthers took Bryce Young first overall.
But also, nobody really thought that the Texans would be a playoff contender leading up to the trade deadline. Yet here they are!
Before Houston’s Week 7 bye, Stroud was off to a phenomenal start with 1,660 passing yards and nine touchdowns against one interception. Stroud started his career with 191 pass attempts without an interception, breaking the seven-year record previously held by Dak Prescott.
Stroud looks nothing like a rookie, but rather an established vet. Nico Collins and rookie Tank Dell have formed one of football’s most prolific pass-catching duos, with both on pace to go over 1,000 yards receiving.
And even without top cornerback Derek Stingley Jr., the Texans boasted a top-10 scoring defense coming out of their Week 7 bye.
Thanks to Stroud’s unexpected early success, Ryan’s grade-A coaching job and strong production from their other youngsters, the Texans are a surprise playoff contender in a crowded AFC.
5 wins would have been a success for this team in 2023, but a winning record isn’t out of the question with one of football’s easiest remaining schedules.
Disappointment: Derek Carr
Carr was let go by the Las Vegas Raiders after nine seasons with the Silver and Black. He then signed a four-year deal with the New Orleans Saints worth $150 million.
Carr and the Saints were the consensus pick to win the wide-open NFC South. New Orleans supposedly had a weak schedule and the best QB in football’s worst division, after all.
But even with strong performances by Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas and Chris Olave and a borderline top-five defense, Carr has played by far the worst football of his career up to this point.
Carr has been caught freaking out at offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael and his receivers several times, not taking any ownership for his own play. Carr has the ideal supporting cast around him and yet he has the audacity to blame his coaches and receivers for his awful play.
At this rate, Carr might not even hit 4,000 passing yards or even 20 TD passes. And if he can’t figure it out soon, the Saints should give Jameis Winston a look. Even if he throws too many interceptions, at least Winston moves the ball and doesn’t play the blame game with his teammates.
It’s becoming now-or-never time with Carr. At the midway point of the season, no QB has been more frustrating and disappointing up to this point.
Surprise: Stacked Rookie WR Class Bolstered By Day 2 & 3 Picks
First-round picks and rookie wideouts Jordan Addison and Zay Flowers have come as advertised. But surprisingly, most of the prolific rookie pass-catchers were day two or three picks. And trust us, there have been a lot of them.
Puka Nacua, a fifth-round pick by the Los Angeles Rams at No. 177 overall, is having an All-Pro rookie season. How many people knew who he was entering Week 1 again?
The Indianapolis Colts got Josh Downs in the third round at No. 79 overall, and he’s threatening for a 1,000-yard season alongside veteran Michael Pittman Jr. Though he’s not a receiver, Detroit Lions’ tight end Sam Laporta, the No. 34 pick, should finish the year as a top-five tight end in receiving yards and receptions. He deserves a mention here too.
Third-rounders Michael Wilson of the Arizona Cardinals and Tank Dell of the Houston Texans are also threatening for 1K receiving. Chiefs’ second-rounder Rashee Rice is coming into his own as the team’s No. 2 pass-catcher behind Travis Kelce, too.
Heck, New England Patriots’ sixth-rounder Demario Douglas plus Marvin Mims of the Denver Broncos and Jayden Reed of the Packers — both second-rounders — are showing signs of being capable WR2 options for their respective teams.
Disappointment: Everything About The Patriots
The Patriots weren’t exactly a trendy pick to be a playoff team in 2023, but nobody thought they would look like one of the NFL’s laughingstocks.
Bill Belichick is the greatest coach of all-time, after all. The o-line, rushing game and defense are always steady. Mac Jones would improve with Bill O’Brien as his OC, and the Pats would at least be in that seven-to-10-win range, right?
Nope. Jones has been awful. The o-line has suddenly become one of the league’s worst. The Rhamondre Stevenson-Ezekiel Elliott-led ground game is mostly non-existent. New pass-catchers Mike Gesicki and JuJu Smith-Schuster have been busts, and DeVante Parker has barely been noticeable too.
In Week 4 against Dallas, the Pats lost 38-3 — marking the worst loss of Belichick’s head coaching career. A week later, they lost to Derek Carr’s Saints 34-0 at home — the SECOND-WORST loss of Belichick’s head coaching career.
The Patriot Way may as well be renamed The Tom Brady way, because Belichick’s Patriots went from mediocre in the early post-Brady years to awful and unwatchable. This is not Patriots Football anymore, and those six Super bowl championship seasons suddenly feel like a lifetime ago…
What other surprises and disappointments should we have included on our list
