Just as we all predicted a year ago, a bunch of quarterbacks changed homes in the 2023 offseason. Aaron Rodgers is now a New York Jet. Derek Carr is a New Orleans Saint. Baker Mayfield is a Tampa Bay Buccaneer, and Jordan Love is the new guy in Green Bay.
But as every football player, coach and fan knows, being named the Week 1 starter by no means guarantees you the starting QB position throughout the year. With that said, let’s dive into the 10 starting NFL quarterbacks of 2023 who are most at risk of losing their starting jobs.
Matthew Stafford
Having Stafford on a list like this would have been unfathomable a year ago. He had led the Los Angeles Rams to a Super Bowl 56 championship and was subsequently handed a four-year extension worth $160 million.
But the Rams completely unraveled in their Super Bowl defending 2022 season. The o-line became a mess. Nobody stepped up as the WR2 with Robert Woods and Odell Beckham Jr. out of the picture. The ground game was atrocious, and of course Cooper Kupp missed the final eight games to injury.
Stafford too missed eight games, and franchise star Aaron Donald missed six. The final result? A 5-and-12 finish, the most losses ever for a defending Super Bowl champion.
With limited cap space, the Rams couldn’t do anything to bolster the offense this year. They’re now asking a 35-year-old Stafford and Kupp to pretty much do everything on their own offensively, and that ain’t sustainable.
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Sean McVay was thrilled when Georgia QB and two-time national champion Stetson Bennett fell into the Rams’ laps at No. 128 overall. A battle-tested and ultra-confident QB like Bennett could totally get a look if the injury-prone and ageing Stafford is unable to bounce back here in 2023.
Don’t rule it out. The Rams don’t have to stay loyal to Stafford just because of that contract. If the likely future Hall of Famer doesn’t rebound, don’t be surprised if Bennett takes over as the starter mid-season.
Mac Jones
It’s hard to fault Jones too much for his disappointing sophomore season. Most of the blame should go to Bill Belichick for making Matt Patricia and Joe Judge of all guys his co-offensive play-callers.
But make no mistake, Jones is already fighting for his job heading into year three. Belichick himself reportedly shopped Jones around the league amid rumors that he was unhappy with the QB’s fiery temper and tantrums towards Patriots coaches.
Here’s the other catch: Rookie Bailey Zappe actually looked better than Jones in the four games he played last season. Zappe won both starts, and who can forget the time he took Aaron Rodgers to overtime in his first NFL game?!
Zappe completed 70.7 percent of his pass attempts for five touchdowns and three interceptions with a QB rating of 100.9. In some ways, it’s surprising Belichick didn’t lean on Zappe down the stretch.
Oh, and the Patriots brought back old friend Bill O’Brien to serve as the new OC. So Jones is out of excuses now. He has the proper coach and a stellar supporting cast to play consistently and carry the team on his back.
And if Jones can’t do that? Watch the Patriots go to Zappe — who deserves a closer look after shining in the limited action he saw a year ago.
Ryan Tannehill
The Tennessee Titans decided to give the 2019 Comeback Player of the Year one more chance to lock down the starting job. It semi-makes sense, with the 35-year-old Tannehill entering his contract year.
But the Titans also hit the jackpot when they took Kentucky quarterback Will Levis 33rd overall. To this day, nobody really understands how Levis fell outside of round one — not that the Titans are complaining.
It just feels like the Titans are using Tannehill as a bridge to the Levis era that will likely begin in 2024…at latest. But what if Tannehill can’t stay healthy and is unable to regain his strong form we saw from 2019 to 2021? Watch Mike Vrabel pull the plug and go to Levis right away.
Tannehill isn’t the long-term guy in Music City. Not with his age, injury history and inconsistent play — particularly in the postseason.
The Titans won’t want to throw Levis into the fire to begin his professional career. But quite frankly, they won’t have a choice if Tannehill’s sloppy play carries over to 2023.
Sam Howell
The Washington Commanders released Carson Wentz and opted not to bring back fan favorite Taylor Heinicke. Head coach Ron Rivera, curiously, is putting his eggs into the basket of 2022 fifth-round pick Sam Howell.
The No. 144 selection of last year’s draft played in the team’s meaningless Week 18 game against the Dallas Cowboys, throwing for 169 yards, one touchdown and one pick in a 26 to 6 victory.
Rivera is coaching for his job this year, so he can’t afford to wait around on Howell forever. If the North Carolina product can’t get it going, Rivera can then turn to Jacoby Brissett — one of the game’s top backups with 48 career starts on his resume.
Expect a short leash for Howell. If it’s not coming together by Week 3 or 4, Brissett will be captaining the Washington offense.
Desmond Ridder
The Cincinnati Bearcats’ product spent most of his rookie year watching Marcus Mariota from the sideline. But the No. 74 pick of the 2022 draft took over late in the season and showed promise by winning two of his four starts.
In those games, Riddler completed 63.5 percent of pass attempts for 708 yards, two touchdowns and zero picks. Throw in a plethora of weapons featuring Kyle Pitts, Drake London, Tyler Allgeier, Cordarrelle Patterson and promising rookie Bijan Robinson, and Ridder has all the tools to succeed as a sophomore.
But don’t expect head coach Arthur Smith to be patient with Ridder if he struggles early and often. Atlanta plays in football’s easiest division, and they just need average QB play to claim the AFC South. That’s it. Nothing else!
If the Falcons don’t get it from Ridder, expect Smith to turn to free agent pickup Taylor Heinicke. The latter did well for the most part on a mediocre Washington team, but surely he could go off with this set of offensive playmakers.
Pressure’s on Ridder. If he folds under it, it’ll be Heinicke time again.
Baker Mayfield
After losing Tom Brady to retirement, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers opted to settle for cheap rather than big-game hunting. They signed former first overall pick Baker Mayfield to a one-year deal, putting him in a two-way race with 2021 second-rounder Kyle Trask for starting reps.
Given the amount of experience he has over Trask, Mayfield should be considered the front-runner to win the starting job. Regardless of who starts behind center in Week 1, that QB will be under pressure to perform immediately.
Mayfield will be on his fourth team in three seasons. Trask has attempted nine passes at the NFL level. Are you really buying either of them as a capable long-term starting option?
We certainly aren’t. Mayfield should win the Week 1 nod, but if his erratic play continues as expected, it’ll be Trask time in Bucs land.
Jared Goff
Goff was once viewed as a simple throw-in in the Matt Stafford trade, and as a bridge to the Detroit Lions’ next starting QB.
But the No. 1 pick of the 2016 draft silenced the critics with one of his best seasons yet in 2022, completing 65.1 percent of pass attempts for 4,438 yards and 29 touchdowns against just seven interceptions.
With Aaron Rodgers now out of the NFC North, the Lions are a popular pick to win the division crown. So unlike the last two years, expectations are awfully high on Goff and the Lions to succeed here in 2023.
The thing is, Goff has always been a shaky QB. And with the No. 68 selection in this year’s draft, Detroit took Tennessee dual-threat quarterback Hendon Hooker.
Hooker has a tremendous skill set and could be the Lions’ QB of the future for all we know. But what if Goff can’t build off a stellar 2022 season, and what if he reverts to his 2021 form? For once, Dan Campbell will have a good backup option to turn to.
The Lions aren’t lovable losers anymore. They’re supposed to contend now. If Goff isn’t up for those sky-high expectations, Campbell should waste no time giving Hooker a look.
Brock Purdy
A healthy Purdy is the front-runner to start and finish the year as the San Francisco 49ers’ starting quarterback. But there are some things to keep in mind here.
One, Purdy is recovering from surgery on a torn UCL he suffered in the 49ers’ NFC Championship Game loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. Will he be fully recovered and good to go, or will the injury limit his performance once he’s cleared to return?
Secondly, was his hot start and Pro Bowl-like play a sign of things to come, or a classic case of beginner’s luck?
Purdy is A) going to have to stay healthy and B) prove last year was no fluke. The 49ers are in win-now mode, and Kyle Shanahan won’t be patient with his quarterbacks. Purdy and even free agent pickup Sam Darnold are all capable starting options.
If one fails, Shanahan will go to the second in command. If that guy also fails, Shanahan will go to option three. This is a deep QB depth chart, but Purdy – the likely Week 1 starter – is going to have to perform well on a regular basis to keep his job. Or else, Darnold behind center.
Jimmy Garoppolo
After releasing Derek Carr, the Las Vegas Raiders signed Jimmy Garoppolo to a three-year deal worth $67.5 million. Behind him on the depth chart sits longtime New England Patriots backup Brian Hoyer and rookie Aidan O’Connell, a fourth-round pick out of Purdue.
Not exactly scary QB competition if you’re Garoppolo. But as noted by Pro Football Talk, Garoppolo’s deal with the Raiders included an “Addendum G” clause.
The long and short of it is this: Because of Garoppolo’s pre-existing foot injury he suffered late in the 2022 season, the Raiders’ have a clause that would allow them to release Jimmy G from his contract — without having to pay a cent.
So, what if the Raiders have buyer’s remorse, decide this was a mistake from the get-go and cut Garoppolo? Then, as per our title for this list, we’ll have lost his starting job…before ever taking a snap for Las Vegas.
But even if Vegas keeps Garoppolo? He’s injury-prone and one of the most inconsistent QBs in the league. It might not take long for Josh McDaniels to get fed up and see what Hoyer can do…or if O’Connell could be the next hidden gem QB that finds surprising immediate success.
Other than simply not being released, getting healthy and performing at a consistently strong level, Garoppolo faces no pressure at all!
Derek Carr
This isn’t so much a knock against Carr. Rather, it’s a fact that the New Orleans Saints have one of the game’s best backups in Jameis Winston. That’s just the reality.
Carr signed a four-year deal with the Saints worth $150 million following his release from the Raiders. Carr needed a fresh start, and his familiarity with head coach Dennis Allen — previously the Raiders’ head coach — should help matters.
But what if Carr can’t live up to that hefty contract? And what if the season quickly starts to go sideways? Hmm…
Winston started the Saints’ first three games in 2022 before injuries forced Dennis Allen to turn to Andy Dalton. In a mind-boggling move that still makes little sense today, Allen stuck with the inconsistency of the Red Rifle the rest of the way.
Let’s not forget how good Winston was before his season-ending injury in Week 8 of the 2021 season. He won five of seven starts and had 14 touchdowns against three interceptions. If healthy, Winston can totally start.
So yeah, the $150 million doesn’t mean much in terms of job security. New Orleans obviously thinks highly of Winston, having brought him back on a restructured deal. If Carr’s inconsistency and bad habits plague the offense early, NOLA will have no choice but to go back to Winston.
It’s that simple.
What other starting quarterbacks are in danger of losing their jobs in 2023? Join us in the comments section below
