With the 2023 NFL season in the books, we’ve had plenty of time to evaluate most of this year’s draft class.
While several first-year players already look like bona fide superstars, many other highly-touted rookies have endured plenty of growing pains this season. As a result, we’re left wondering if some teams already feel buyer’s remorse over their head-scratching decisions on draft day.
So with the benefit of hindsight, let’s dive into 10 disappointing NFL rookies and analyze which player should have been taken in their spot instead.
Carolina Panthers: C.J. Stroud Over Bryce Young
This is the easiest and most obvious re-draft for this specific exercise.
The Carolina Panthers acquired the top pick in a blockbuster trade with the Chicago Bears and proceeded to use it on Alabama QB Bryce Young. Then with the No. 2 selection, the Houston Texans went with Ohio State signal-caller CJ Stroud.
Young has struggled mightily as a rookie. He’s not reading defenses and committing way too many turnovers. Through his first eight games, Young was averaging just 195 passing yards per game and had eight touchdowns vs. seven interceptions.
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And then there’s Stroud, who’s putting together the best statistical rookie QB season in history while earning plenty of consideration for MVP honors.
Stroud attempted 192 passes before throwing his first interception — breaking the record previously held by Dak Prescott. And then in Houston’s Week 9 home win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, he threw a single-game rookie QB record 470 yards.
By Week 10, the Texans had surpassed their win totals from 2020, 2021 AND 2022.
Stroud has his Texans in postseason contention in a year where plenty of growing pains were expected. Young, meanwhile, has his Panthers in contention to finish with football’s worst record — not to mention that their 2024 first-round pick belongs to Chicago. Oops.
Las Vegas Raiders: Jalen Carter Over Tyree Wilson
We liked the Raiders’ selection of Tyree Wilson at No. 7 overall at the time. He was rumored to be a top-five pick, and the Texas Tech product filled the Raiders’ need for another game-changing pass-rusher to complement Maxx Crosby.
While the Raiders’ D has shown incredible improvement under defensive coordinator Patrick Graham this year, Wilson surprisingly hasn’t been a reason for the turnaround. Rather, he’s been a huge liability.
Wilson didn’t have his first sack until Week 7 against the Bears. He’s also been downright awful in the run-stopping game, and Pro Football Focus graded him at a miserable 40.3 through Week 10.
Now imagine if the Raiders had Jalen Carter patrolling that defensive line with Crosby instead of Wilson.
Carter went ninth overall to the Philadelphia Eagles and has been one of football’s most dominant rookies, even with limited playing time in a rotational role.
Through Week 10, Carter was PFF’s highest-graded rookie at 90.6 — with four sacks and two forced fumbles. Carter would’ve surely been a Day 1 starter for Las Vegas — wreaking havoc as an elite pass-rusher and run-stopped with Crosby.
Only fitting that the Raiders’ final first-round pick of the Dave Ziegler-Josh McDaniels one was a giant mistake — at least in year one — and that they passed on a future superstar in Carter.
Atlanta Falcons: Christian Gonzalez Over Bijan Robinson
The Falcons’ decision to draft running back Bijan Robinson eighth overall made no sense. Not when they already had a 1,000-yard rusher in Tyler Allgeier.
And since the Falcons have no idea what they’re doing with Robinson, the selection to take him with their first-round pick already feels like a giant mistake! I mean, why take a guy so early when you’re barely gonna use him anyway?!
So now imagine if Arthur Smith and company addressed a position of need with the No. 8 pick instead of taking another RB they didn’t really need. Imagine if they paired star cornerback AJ Terrell with a future superstar himself in Christian Gonzalez.
Gonzalez — the No. 17 pick by the New England Patriots — was playing excellent football before he suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in Week 4. PFF had him graded at 80.8 and he allowed only a 67.5 passer rating when targeted.
No doubt the Patriots found a future franchise cornerstone in Gonzalez. And it’s too bad Atlanta passed on his talents in favor of another RB they really did not need. Nothing against Bijan, but RBs just don’t move the needle as much as they used to, especially when they’re sharing the workload with another runner anyway.
Arizona Cardinals: Broderick Jones Over Paris Johnson Jr.
The Cardinals traded the No. 3 pick to the Houston Texans and moved down into the No. 12 spot. Armed with additional draft capital, they then traded up into the No. 6 spot via the Detroit Lions to take Ohio State offensive tackle Paris Johnson Jr.
Johnson did fill an organizational need, yes, but Arizona passed on more polished and NFL-ready tackles like Broderick Jones and Peter Skoronski.
In a do-over, Arizona GM Monti Ossenfort would most certainly choose one of those over Johnson Jr. Here, we’ll go with Jones — who’s been very good in a rotational role for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Per Pro Football Focus, Jones didn’t allow a single sack and took just one penalty in his first nine games. On the flip side, Johnson earned a woeful 52.5 grade at PFF and committed nine penalties while allowing three sacks in his first 10 games.
Jones, who went 14th overall to Pittsburgh, should be a starter by now. The Cards clearly wanted a plug-and-play guy and thought they were getting in Johnson Jr., but they simply went with the wrong offensive lineman here.
Of course Johnson Jr. can grow into a star and become the anchor of this Arizona o-line down the road. But if Arizona had a mulligan, they would have totally chosen Jones over Johnson Jr.
Detroit Lions: Tuli Tuipulotu Over Jack Campbell
The Lions may be running away with their first division crown in 30 years, but it doesn’t mean they made the right choices in round one of the draft.
We’re still baffled by the decision to take Jahmyr Gibbs 12th overall when they already had David Montgomery. Even more confusing was the decision to reach for Iowa linebacker Jack Campbel at No. 18 overall — who nobody else projected as a first-round pick.
At least Gibbs is making the most of his limited playing time in Motor City, but Campbell has been a liability on an otherwise stingy Detroit defense.
Pro Football Focus graded him at 48.1 through his first nine games. And according to Pro Football Reference, Campbell allowed a ridiculous 135.9 passer rating when targeted. And with one sack and zero turnovers over those nine games, Campbell didn’t exactly make up for his shortcomings with big plays…
And then there’s Los Angeles Chargers’ standout linebacker Tuli Tuipulotu, whom the Bolts snagged in round two at No. 54 overall.
Amid a disappointing year by the Chargers’ defense, Tuipulotu has emerged as a stud edge rusher alongside Nick Bosa and Khalil Mack. Even in a limited role, Tuipulotu had four sacks, seven tackles for a loss and 15 QB pressures over his first nine games.
Campbell has been the weak link in Detroit’s defense. Just imagine if Detroit had Tuipulotu lining up Aidan Hutchinson and company instead…
Dallas Cowboys: Joey Porter Jr. Over Mazi Smith
The Cowboys surprised many when they took Michigan defensive tackle Mazi Smith with the No. 26 pick.
For one, they were already loaded on the d-line. Secondly, Smith felt like a considerable reach in that spot. Hindsight is 20/20, but boy do the Cowboys wish they passed on Smith and went with a more impactful player instead.
Since this list is based on hindsight anyway, we’ll go with Joey Porter Jr. in this spot instead of Smith — whom PFF has graded at a replaceable-level player up to this point of the year.
The Cowboys’ secondary has struggled against top-flight offenses since losing All-Pro corner Trevon Diggs for the year. Now imagine if the Cowboys instead had Joey Porter Jr. — who somehow slipped to the Steelers at No. 32 overall.
Porter is being used in a rotational role, which is surprising given that he’s played like a true shutdown corner in Steel City. Per Pro Football Reference, he allowed a 44.4 completion percentage when targeted and an opposing passer rating of 68.0 when targeted through nine games.
Dallas’ defense is already a top-10 unit, but pairing Porter Jr. with Diggs long-term would have given the Cowboys the league’s top cornerback duo. At least, he’d be a far more impactful player than Smith — who’s been quite the liability in the Dallas run D.
Green Bay Packers: Jordan Addison Over Lukas Van Ness
We didn’t like the Packers’ selection of Lukas Van Ness at No. 13 overall to begin with. Not because of the player, but because of the fact that Green Bay was loaded in the front seven already with De’Vondre Campbel, Rashawn Gary, Preston Smith, Kenny Clark, Devonte Wyatt AND Quay Walker.
Where exactly was Van Ness going to fit again? The Pack are still figuring that out, because he’s only seeing about one-third of the club’s defensive snaps as a rotational piece.
Meanwhile, the Packers have no true game-changing pass-catchers to help Jordan Love — who’s enduring a tough first year as Green Bay’s starter.
Christian Watson looks nothing like last year’s rookie stud who had nine total touchdowns in 14 games. Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs (DOBBS) have made some big plays but aren’t at all suited for a WR1 role.
So now imagine if the Pack took Jordan Addison — who’s been the best rookie wideout this year not named Puka Nacua.
The USC product fell to the Minnesota Vikings at No. 23 overall and has emerged as the ideal No. 2 wideout behind Justin Jefferson. With Jefferson on the IR, Addison has elevated his game and looks every bit like a multi-time Pro Bowler.
Imagine if Love had Addison as his go-to receiver? Not only would it help Green Bay’s sluggish offense, but it would have prevented one of the Packers’ main rivals from landing another game-wrecking weapon.
The Packers never take wide receivers in round one. And yet again, they look completely foolish for continuing that trend here in 2023.
Washington Commanders: Brian Branch Over Emmanuel Forbes
The Commanders had a top-10 defense last year, so it was a bit surprising when they took Mississippi State corner Emmanuel Forbes at No. 16 overall.
Well, the Washington defense has surprisingly sunk to the near-bottom in just about every meaningful category. Forbes’ awful production as a rookie hasn’t helped — but this D would unquestionably be in better shape with Brian Branch patrolling the secondary.
Branch was widely expected to be a first-round pick, but he fell into the Lions’ laps at No. 45 overall. Sure enough, the versatile Alabama product has been a godsend for Detroit’s defense.
Forbes has been awful in coverage and has been benched by Washington several times this year. Branch, meanwhile, has been rock-solid in coverage and dangerous as a ball hawker — as you saw with the pick-six in his NFL debut against Patrick Mahomes.
Branch is only getting started, too. He’ll be a multi-time Pro Bowler in Motor City, and who knows where exactly Forbes will go in DC? For now, he looks like a giant bust.
New York Jets: Josh Downs Over Will McDonald IV
We would’ve liked to go with an offensive lineman here for the Jets, but no stud blockers are left for them in this do-over. So let’s go with another offensive weapon they really could’ve used here in Josh Downs.
The Jets curiously took Iowa State defensive end Will McDonald IV 15th overall, even though they had enough star power in the front seven. Taking a guy who was barely gonna play as a rookie was certainly…a decision…
While McDonald is barely seeing the field as a rookie, Downs — a third-round pick by the Colts at No. 79 overall — is having a lights-out season in Indianapolis.
Downs is threatening for 1,000 yards receiving despite having backup Gardner Minshew II as his main QB this year. The Jets offense, meanwhile, straight up stinks with Zach Wilson having to fill in for an injured Aaron Rodgers.
Wilson has been overly-reliant on 2022 Offensive Rookie of the Year Garrett Wilson. Now imagine if Zach had the other Wilson AND Downs as his go-to receivers, along with rising star running back Breece Hall.
The Jets could’ve squeaked out more wins in those tight contests they lost if they had another playmaker like Downs. But instead, they’re letting their 2023 first-round pick mostly watch from the bench while Downs is growing into a star right before our eyes.
Los Angeles Chargers: Puka Nacua Over Quentin Johnston
The Chargers drafted the TCU wideout with the No. 21 pick, hoping he’d form a three-headed monster at wideout with Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. Even after Williams suffered a season-ending ACL tear in Week 3, however, Johnston has been mostly invisible.
Johnston didn’t even catch his first touchdown until the Chargers’ ninth game of the year. He’s only seeing about half of the club’s offensive snaps and isn’t getting open at all — forcing Justin Herbert to overly-rely on Allen.
And then there’s Los Angeles Rams star Puka Nacua, whom they got in the fifth round at No. 177 overall. Nacua should finish with the most receptions and receiving yards among all first-year players…while Johnston continues to be a no-show for a Bolts’ team with playoff aspirations.
Without a doubt, the Chargers would take Nacua in a do-over. What a weapon he would have been in the Chargers’ star-studded offense, and what a difference Nacua would have made for this constantly underachieving team.
Which other 2023 NFL Draft mistakes should we have re-drafted on this list
