Now that all 32 NFL rosters are practically set and ready for showtime, it’s time to peer into the crystal ball and see which clubs will enjoy vast improvement from 2022 — and which ones are bound to negatively regress.
So without further ado, let’s dive into five NFL teams that will improve in 2023, and five that will take quite the step backwards.
Improve: New York Jets
Isn’t this one the most obvious? The Jets won seven games — in a tough division, mind you — with Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco And Mike White as their QBs. Those three, by the way, combined for a whopping 14 touchdown passes and as many interceptions.
Well, now the Jets have a new sheriff in town: The name’s Rodgers. Aaron Rodgers. Four-time MVP. Super Bowl 45 champion. Future Hall of Famer. Already the most talented quarterback in Jets history. What more do you need to know?
Oh, Rodgers isn’t lacking in weapons. 2022 Offensive Rookie of the Year Garrett Wilson could contend for the receiving crown with Rodgers as his new QB. Dalvin Cook and Breece Hall are only a top-five running back duo — if not THE best. and pass-catchers Mecole Hardman, Corey Davis plus old friends Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb will do damage for Rodgers as well.
And then there’s the defense led by rising superstars Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams. This group finished fourth in scoring last year despite spending an unfair amount of time on the field because of, ahem, crappy quarterback play.
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Say hello to a return to the postseason, Jets fans. And brace yourselves for the legitimate possibility of your first Super Bowl parade and celebration in over half a century.
Decline: Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings were by far the flukiest 13-win team in NFL history last season. They set a single-season record in one-score wins with 11 — including the greatest single-game comeback ever against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 15.
Well, check the numbers. Any team that wins a ridiculous amount of one-score games in one season is bound to regress the next.
The 2021 Las Vegas Raiders are a prime example of this. They went 10-and-7, with seven of their victories being decided by one score. A year later, they finished with a woeful 6-and-10 record.
Not to mention that Minny lost more than they gained this offseason. Out are Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, Za’Darius Smith, Patrick Peterson and Eric Kendricks. In are Marcus Davenport, Byron Murphy and rookie wideout Jordan Addison.
Cook’s departure especially hurts. And losing arguably your top pass-rusher and No. 1 corner when you already had a bottom-five defense a year ago is downright terrifying. So uh, how much worse is this D gonna get in 2023?
Minnesota could still win the wide-open NFC North, but they’d be lucky to even hit 10 wins. Don’t at all expect them to compete for the NFC’s top seed again. Eight to 10 wins is a lot more realistic this time around.
Improve: Detroit Lions
The Lions greatly exceeded expectations and finished 9-8 for their first winning season since 2017. They only missed out on the postseason because of a tiebreaker to Geno Smith’s Seattle Seahawks.
But the stars are finally aligned for the Lions to do something special here in 2023. The Vikings, as we just discussed, are bound to regress. And Aaron Rodgers no longer resides in the NFC North, ridding Detroit of their longtime bully once and for all.
So here comes Dan Campbell’s Lions, led by the No. 5 scoring offense of 2023. Jared Goff showed incredible improvement last season and should continue to shine behind one of the NFL’s top offensive lines.
Not having Jameson Williams for six games because of suspension is concerning, but the Lions still have Amon-Ra St. Brown and a dynamic running back tandem in David Montgomery and rookie Jahmyr Gibbs.
Even if Goff struggles or gets hurt, the Lions have one of the league’s best backups in Teddy Bridgewater and dual-threat rookie Hendon Hooker. Campbell has options here if the Goff project takes a step back.
The Lions allowed the most yards last season, but the D is bound to improve this year. Brad Holmes signed three quality defensive backs in CJ Gardner-Johnson, Emmanuel Moseley and Cameron Sutton. They also snagged Alabama safety Brian Branch in round two, adding extra depth to the secondary.
Aidan Hutchinson and James Houston were a prolific pass-rushing tandem in 2022, and they should both only improve this season.
The Lions enter 2023 with a good amount of hype. Now it’s about executing with the best all-around roster in the NFC North. If it all comes together, Detroit will record its first double-digit-win season since 2014.
Decline: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This one couldn’t be more obvious. Even with the GOAT Tom Brady last year, the Buccaneers were lucky to win the NFC South, let alone finish with eight wins. TB12 needed not one, but FOUR fourth-quarter comebacks in 2022 to help the Bucs repeat as division champs.
And even that only led to a humiliating loss to the Dallas Cowboys in the Wild Card Round — marking a sour end to Brady’s beautiful career. And with very limited cap space, Tampa had to settle on journeyman Baker Mayfield and 2021 second-rounder Kyle Trask as their QB competition for 2023.
Gulp. Good luck with that. Brady wasn’t his MVP-self in 2022, but the 45-year-old version of The GOAT is still miles better than what Mayfield and Trask have to offer.
The Bucs don’t have any weapons outside of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Their front seven is getting old and soft; no longer the ferocious beast we saw in Super Bowl 55.
With all three of Tampa’s division rivals looking much better on paper heading into 2023, it just looks like they’re headed for a season of four to six wins. They’d be lucky to hit the latter mark, truth be told.
Improve: New Orleans Saints
In some ways, it’s impressive that the Saints won seven games last year with Andy Dalton as their primary starter — and with key starters Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, Marshon Lattimore, Erik McCoy, Marcus Maye and Payton Turner all missing significant time.
Also, the 7-and-10 Saints lost SIX games by one score. History shows they’re bound to enjoy some better luck and come away with more victories than losses in one-possession games.
But most importantly, they upgraded big-time at quarterback by signing ex-Las Vegas Raiders QB Derek Carr to run the offense. Carr gets to play behind one of football’s best offensive lines, and his set of weapons is unfair: Kamara, Thomas, Chris Olave, Juwan Johnson, Jamaal Williams and Rashid Shaheed.
As usual, the Lattimore and Cameron Jordan-led Saints defense will be close to a top-10 unit. The Saints also just happen to play in football’s worst division, and only the Atlanta Falcons have a softer strength of schedule for 2023.
Add up all the factors, and this New Orleans team should easily win double-digit games and the division crown.
Decline: Las Vegas Raiders
It might feel weird to some that we have the Raiders on here considering they only won six games last year. But trust us, last year’s team was not as bad as it looked record-wise.
Nine of the Raiders’ 11 defeats were decided by one score. That included two overtime defeats and five losses by three points or less — including two L’s by a single point.
So the math says the Raiders were more so unlucky than bad, not to mention they had a pretty miserable schedule with no favorable stretches. That means they should play like the 2021 squad and push for double-digit wins…right?
Actually, no. We have the Raiders “declining” on year because instead of losing a bunch of close games, we’re expecting them to be right near the bottom of the league standings.
We don’t know what Josh Jacobs’ plans are and if he returns before Week 1. Either way it’s hard to envision him repeating last year’s career year. Davante Adams isn’t going to put up 1,500 yards receiving again with Jimmy Garoppolo throwing him the football, either.
Speaking of Garoppolo, he’s injury-prone and a major downgrade from Derek Carr. What, Josh McDaniels is just going to turn Jimmy G into a star now?
Improve: Pittsburgh Steelers
Following an ugly 2-6 start, the Steelers caught fire in the second half and finished the year on a 7-and-2 run and four-game win streak. Despite a nine-win season, they missed out on the postseason via tiebreaker to the Miami Dolphins.
Mitch Trubisky and Kenny Pickett had just 11 combined touchdown passes last season. Superstar pass rusher TJ Watt missed seven games, and unicorn safety Minkah Fitzpatrick was sidelined for two. Yet Pittsburgh still finished with the No. 10 scoring defense!
Well, we got news for ya: Pittsburgh is going to be even better this year.
For one, Pickett HAS TO be better in year two. He just has to be. He’s got a dynamic receiving duo in Diontae Johnson and George Pickens, a 1,000-yard rusher in Najee Harris and a nice security blanket in tight end Pat Freiermuth. Rookie Broderick Jones, taken in the first round, will instantly upgrade a leaky pass protection group.
The Steelers signed the ageless Patrick Peterson and drafted cornerback Joey Porter Jr., adding more depth to an already scary-good defense. The sky’s the limit for this group, especially if Watt stays healthy.
Decline: Green Bay Packers
The Packers won just eight games a year ago with Aaron Rodgers as their quarterback. So…how much worse will they be without the four-time MVP? Hmm…
On one hand, the Packers do play in a wide-open division with no clear-cut runaway favorite. On the other hand, is it fair to expect Jordan Love — he of one career start — to fare better than Rodgers did last year?
Consider that the Packers lost not only Rodgers, but 2022 leading receiver Allen Lazard. Christian Watson looks like a star in the making, but there isn’t a single proven veteran or difference-maker in the pass-catching game otherwise.
AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones have been a prolific rushing duo, but it helped when opposing defenses had to focus on Rodgers. Now you can expect the D to stack the box and dare Love into beating them with his own arm.
We aren’t deeming Love a draft bust. You gotta give the man one or two years to show his worth first. But it’s just hard to see how Green Bay improves from eight wins in 2023 when they’re considerably downgrading at football’s most important position.
Love might be the guy someday, but 2023 is a year of growing pains in Lambeau Land.
Improve: Seattle Seahawks
Led by Comeback Player of the Year Geno Smith and a stacked rookie class, the Seahawks were one of football’s pleasant surprises and qualified for the postseason with a nine-win campaign. Now it’s time to take it a step further.
Smith had a career year behind the dynamic receiving duo of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett and rookie running back Kenneth Walker, who should easily exceed 1,000 yards rushing as the undisputed RB1 here in 2023.
Oh, but that’s not all. Seattle got arguably the best receiver of this class in Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba with the No. 20 pick. Isn’t it awfully scary to think that the Seahawks could have not one, not two, not three…but maybe four players who put up 1,000 yards of offense? It should be a scary thought for the rest of the league.
Seattle had the 25th scoring defense a year ago, but that promises to change. They brought back star linebacker Bobby Wagner and beefed up the pass rush by signing ex-Denver Bronco Dre’Mont Jones in free agency.
Oh, and Seattle used the No. 5 pick on prized cornerback Devon Witherspoon, who joins a secondary led by star corner Tariq Woolen, Pro Bowl safety Quandre Diggs as well as Jamal Adams and Coby Bryant.
There simply isn’t a weakness on this Seattle roster. They can beat you through the air and in the ground game. They can overwhelm opponents with a suffocating secondary or a resilient pass-rush.
It all adds up to double-digit wins and a potentially very deep playoff run. That’s how scary these Seahawks are. They’re way too talented to fall below 10 wins for the third straight year.
Decline: Los Angeles Chargers
The Bolts squeaked into the postseason with a 10-7 record. But we know how that ended: A humiliating choke job in which they blew a 27-point lead and fell to the Jacksonville Jaguars on Wild Card Weekend.
One can look at the Chargers’ elite talent level and the fact they lost five one-possession games last year. Justin Herbert is a borderline top-five QB in the game, after all. So why can’t they be better?
Well, the Chargers didn’t really do much to improve a defense that finished 21st in scoring and 28th in rushing D. Herbert can play like Superman all he wants, but a mediocre defense like this one will simply not hold up in the unforgiving AFC.
We’re also just not sold on Brandon Staley as a head coach. His in-game decision-making has been painful to watch, and despite coming from a defensive background, he sure hasn’t made the most of all-world talents like Derwin James, Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack.
It just feels like the Bolts are bound to underachieve and come up short in a conference that will see improvements from other clubs like the Steelers, Jets, New England Patriots, Denver Broncos and Cleveland Browns.
You just can’t expect this team to do much right when it comes down to the big moments. So should anyone be surprised if the Chargers fall below 10 wins and miss out on the playoffs for the fourth time in five years?
What other NFL teams will improve in 2023, and which ones will decline?
