While several 2023 NFL rookies are in excellent positions to succeed and produce right off the bat, others are going to quickly experience growing pains and realize that beginner’s luck is only for so many first-year players.
With that said, let’s dive into five NFL rookies who will flourish in 2023, and five who will struggle aplenty.
Flourish: Bryce Young
The Carolina Panthers gave up a king’s ransom to the Chicago Bears so they could select the Alabama Crimson Tide signal-caller first overall. Quite frankly, why shouldn’t Young flourish as a rookie in Frank Reich’s offense?
Sure, his tenure as the Indianapolis Colts’ head coach ended on a sour note. But Reich is one of the top quarterback gurus of his generation, doing wonders with the likes of Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, Super Bowl 52 hero and MVP Nick Foles and even Andrew Luck before the latter’s stunning retirement in 2019.
Wentz had a career MVP-like year with the Philadelphia Eagles in 2017 under Reich’s guidance as the OC before he suffered a season-ending ACL tear. Reich was the San Diego Chargers’ QBs coach when Rivers won Comeback Player of the Year honors in 2013. And he was a rookie head coach in Indy when Luck won the 2018 Comeback Player of the Year award.
Young has all the tools to be an immediate star in Reich’s offense. Taylor Moton and second-year product Ikem Ekwonu form a strong duo on that offensive line, for starters.
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Secondly, newcomers Adam Thielen and Miles Sanders should provide enough weaponry for Young. Former 1K receiver DJ Chark and rookie Jonathan Mingo out of Ole Miss should make their fair share of big plays, too.
And finally, Carolina plays in football’s toughest division — not to mention they have the sixth-easiest strength of schedule. With a bunch of easy opponents, Young should have no issue building up his confidence and racking up the numbers early.
A QB guru at head coach. A good set of weapons. A promising o-line. An easy schedule. Everything is in place for Young to take off in year one as a professional.
Struggle: C.J. Stroud
We were thrilled for Houston Texans fans when their club selected the Ohio State quarterback second overall. Stroud has all the tools to be a five-star signal-caller in this league, and Houston couldn’t risk passing him up.
But realistically speaking, the Texans haven’t put Stroud in the best position to go off as a rookie. And that’s okay. Peyton Manning and John Elway had awful rookie years and turned out okay!
Stroud is playing behind a leaky offensive line that only has Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil as a reliable starting option. The rest of the o-line is a question mark.
Running back Dameon Pierce is a nice weapon for Stroud to work with. But the Texans traded away their top wideout of the last three seasons in Brandin Cooks to the Dallas Cowboys. Nico Collins, John Metchie III — who missed his entire rookie year — and veteran Robert Woods are the Texans’ top receivers on the depth chart.
Color us skeptical that tight end Dalton Schultz will play up to the standards we saw in Dallas over the last two years. Going to a Houston offense with a lot of questions doesn’t make for the easiest transition.
Stroud also plays in an AFC South division that features three of football’s best defensive lines, so expect him to struggle through that as well. This is another year of rebuilding in H-Town, and that means working with Stroud through his early struggles.
With a limited supporting cast, one shouldn’t expect much from Stroud as a rookie.
Flourish: Will Anderson Jr.
Taking CJ Stroud second overall wasn’t enough for the Texans in round one. GM Nick Caserio also worked his magic to snag the No. 3 pick from the Arizona Cardinals so that he could select Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson Jr.
The hype on Anderson Jr. is extremely high, and for good reason. Before Jalen Carter’s stock took off late in 2022 and early in 2023, Anderson Jr. was widely considered as the front-runner to go first overall in his class.
Anderson Jr. is one of the best pass-rush prospects of his generation. The Texans and their fans will quickly learn to realize that it was worth selling the farm to move up for Anderson Jr. in the No. 3 spot.
He’s got the perfect combination of speed, quickness, agility and strength. Playing in an AFC South with three leaky offensive lines should only help Anderson really pad his individual stats here.
DeMeco Ryans was the perfect head coaching hire by the Texans. He maximized the talents of the many stud pass-rushers he had in San Francisco. And Ryans will undoubtedly do the same with Anderson Jr. here in 2023.
Struggle: Darnell Wright
If it weren’t for Justin Fields’ excellent dual-threat abilities, the Chicago Bears’ offensive line would have gotten a lot more heat in 2022. They allowed Fields to take a whopping 55 sacks in 15 games.
In total, the Bears allowed 58 sacks — the fourth-worst mark on the year. Third-year guard Teven Jenkins is the only above-average piece on that offensive line right now.
That’s a problem for Darnell Wright — the No. 10 pick in this year’s draft. Rookie offensive linemen tend to struggle early and often, and Wright doesn’t have a lot of support in the pass-blocking game here.
The Tennessee Volunteers product can expect plenty of growing pains. If he were joining a top-flight o-line like that of the Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs or San Francisco 49ers, we’d be much more confident in Wright’s play as a rookie.
This isn’t to say that he’ll go down as a draft bust. He was a top-10 pick for a reason and could easily serve as the Bears’ long-term protector of Fields. But Wright is not in a position to enjoy beginner’s luck, and so Chicago fans — and coaches for that matter — need to keep expectations reasonable for him in year one.
Flourish: Christian Gonzalez
Guys like Kyle Shanahan, Sean McVay and Andy Reid are considered quarterback gurus. If there’s ever been a true guru for cornerbacks, it’s New England Patriots’ head coach Bill Belichick.
Ty Law. Asante Samuel. Aqib Talib. Logan Ryan. Darrelle Revis. Malcolm Butler. Stephon Gilmore. JC Jackson and more recently. Jonathan Jones. Just to name some of the corners who enjoyed all-world play under Belichick’s guidance.
Well, we’re pretty sure that Christian Gonzalez will soon leave his mark on that list, too.
Widely viewed as a top-10 prospect, the Oregon corner somehow didn’t fall to New England until the 17th spot. Not only will he be a useful starter, but we wouldn’t be shocked if Gonzalez had a ‘Sauce’ Gardner-like rookie year for the Patriots.
He has the ideal combination of size at 6-foot-2, 201 pounds, the football IQ and the ball-hawking skills to be an ace corner in this league. Gonzalez will also relish playing alongside Jonathan Jones and Kyle Dugger in one of football’s best secondaries.
Sometimes, a player and a coach are just the perfect fit. This is Gonzalez and Belichick. We expect big things for him as a rookie.
Struggle: Dalton Kincaid
Needing more offensive firepower in the passing game, the Buffalo Bills drafted the Utah tight end with the No. 25 selection. The Bills actually traded up two spots via the Jacksonville Jaguars so they could select Kincaid.
We loved the selection from a long-term point of view. But how many tight ends actually go off as a rookie? Tony Gonzalez didn’t. Antonio Gates didn’t. Rob Gronkowski didn’t. Travis Kelce didn’t. Jimmy Graham didn’t. George Kittle didn’t. Mark Andrews didn’t.
And with all due respect to Kincaid, it’s a little too early to start comparing him to the best tight ends of the past two decades. Secondly, he’s not in the best of spots to produce right away.
The Bills already have the vastly underrated Dawson Knox listed as their top tight end. Having exceeded 40 receptions and 500 receiving yards over each of the last two years — while compiling 16 total TD receptions — it’s hard to envision Knox losing his TE1 role to Kincaid.
Not to mention Buffalo already has a top-five receiver in Stefon Diggs plus speedster Gabe Davis, who’s coming off the best season of his career.
Kincaid can certainly grow into a valuable long-term weapon in Buffalo’s offense. But don’t expect him to post eye-popping numbers as a rookie. This is a project in the making in Orchard Park.
Flourish: Devon Witherspoon
Witherspoon was the consensus top cornerback prospect entering this class. Sure enough, he was the first one off the board at No. 5 overall by the Seattle Seahawks — who got that pick from the Denver Broncos in the Russell Wilson trade.
Pete Carroll, like Bill Belichick, just has a way with developing quality defensive backs. Carroll oversaw the development of the Legion of Boom, and now he’s doing magic with Quandre Diggs and 2022 rookie standouts Tariq Woolen and Coby Bryant.
But the 6-foot-1 180-pound Witherspoon is really something else. The big-bodied corner allowed just 22 catches for 206 yards on 63 targets in his final year at Illinois, per Pro Football Focus. If his INT totals don’t stand out, it’s because opposing QBs quickly learned to not challenge him.
Witherspoon is in a terrific situation here in Emerald City, playing on a secondary led by Diggs, Wollen, Bryant and Jamal Adams. With tremendous size, physicality and elite cover skills, Witherspoon won’t disappoint as a rookie in Seattle. That much we can promise Seahawk fans.
Struggle: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Make no mistake, we absolutely loved the Seattle Seahawks’ decision to take Smith-Njigba with the No. 20 selection. He was the most complete wide receiver prospect in this class, and you can never have too many weapons in today’s pass-happy NFL.
But it’s also a little unfair to hold too-high-of-expectations for Smith-Njigba entering his rookie year. It’s simply because the Seahawks already have one of the game’s top-five wide receiver duos in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, two guys who are good for over 1K receiving apiece per season when healthy.
Secondly, the Seahawks have a rising superstar at running back in Kenneth Walker III. He had 1,050 rushing yards and nine rushing TDs in 15 games last season. Now expect bigger things in 2023.
So Smith-Njigba is essentially the No. 4 guy for Geno Smith in the offense. Metcalf and Lockett will continue to be Smith’s go-to pass-catchers, and Walker is going to enjoy an increased workload after a superb rookie year.
Add it all up, and Smith-Njigba is highly unlikely to light the lamp as a rookie. Let’s wait for 2024 or perhaps even later for the ex-Buckeye to go off at the NFL level.
Flourish: Bijan Robinson
We were among the many who criticized the Atlanta Falcons’ decision to use the No. 8 pick on Bijan Robinson, even though they already had a 1,000-yard rusher in Tyler Allgeier on the roster.
But eh, we just gotta trust head coach Arthur Smith to fully unlock Robinson’s potential as an offensive weapon. Clearly, Smith wants to do more than just run the football with the former Texas Longhorn.
The Falcons have been using Robinson as a receiver in practice. Smith is clearly using his offensive genius to make Robinson a bell-cow running back, and we have every reason to believe that it’ll work.
We saw what Smith did with Derrick Henry in Tennessee. And we’ve seen what he’s done with both Allgeier AND Cordarrelle Patterson in the ground games. He hasn’t had a running back prospect like Robinson before, so don’t be shocked if the latter is your 2023 leader in yards from scrimmage.
There’s just too much to like about this fit.
Struggle: Jalen Carter
Carter was once the consensus top prospect and front-runner to go first overall in the 2023 draft. But his alleged involvement in a fatal January car accident that killed teammate Devin Willock and Georgia staffer Chandler LeCoy prompted several teams to take Carter off their board.
On top of that, teams were concerned when Carter showed up overweight at his Pro Day. One of the main questions heading into the draft was just how far Carter would fall on teams’ boards.
The Georgia defensive tackle wound up going ninth overall to the Philadelphia Eagles, who traded up into that spot via the Chicago Bears. Only time will tell if his off-field concerns end up affecting Carter’s career, but that’s not the only reason we have Carter on this list.
He’s also joining a star-studded Eagles’ front seven that racked up 70 sacks last season. Their starting defensive tackle spots are occupied by veteran mainstay Fletcher Cox and 2022 first-rounder Jordan Davis — Carter’s former Georgia teammate.
Cox isn’t going anywhere, and Davis was taken 13th overall by the Eagles a year ago for a reason. He’s a monster run-stopping force who beautifully compliments Cox, Brandon Graham, Josh Sweatt and Haason Reddick.
There just isn’t enough room for Carter to make an impact here in 2023. This will likely be Cox’s final season in Philly, and then the Eagles can transition Carter into the other starting defensive tackle role alongside Davis.
But those expecting immediate production from Carter as a rookie are just setting themselves up for disappointment.
Which other NFL rookies will shine or fail in 2023? Join us in the comments section below
