We’re past the halfway point of what has been a chaotic, unpredictable and all-around dramatic 2023 NFL regular season.
As usual, a handful of rookies have stolen the show by making an ultra-smooth transition from the college ranks to the pros. On the flip side, several first-year players that were expected to make an immediate impact have largely disappointed up to this point.
With that, let’s dive into five 2023 rookies who already look like superstars — and five that look like busts.
Star: C.J. Stroud
You know you’re having a special rookie year when you’re at or near the very top of the NFL MVP conversation. Welcome to the big boys league, CJ Stroud.
Stroud broke Dak Prescott’s record for most pass attempts without an interception to begin a career. Incredibly, Stroud attempted 192 passes before finally throwing a pick in a Week 6 home win over the New Orleans Saints.
And in Houston’s thrilling comeback win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 9, Stroud threw for 470 yards — a single-game rookie QB record.
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Stroud is playing on the level of Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts. He’s playing better than Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, et al. He’s quite literally already a top-five quarterback in the game.
The Texans didn’t have to do anything but just take whoever remained between Stroud and Bryce Young with the No. 2 pick. Let’s just say the Texans should send a giant gift basket to Carolina for taking Young over Stroud — who already looks like the most talented signal-caller in franchise history.
What more can be said about Stroud? The kid’s alright. The Texans have made significant progress here in 2023, but they look poised to make the jump to Super Bowl contender in 2024.
Bust: Bryce Young
At the time, it felt like the Panthers were making the safe pick when they took Bryce Young first overall. Despite concerns about his size, Young was viewed as the more polished and NFL-ready prospect than Stroud.
Obviously, that hasn’t been the case.
Young has looked everything like, well, an NFL rookie QB. He’s not reading through his progressions. The Alabama product is often too careless with the football and doesn’t know when to cut his losses — as evidenced by the fact he’s taking an average of roughly 3.5 sacks per game.
Through his first eight contests, Young didn’t have a single 300-yard outing. And for those who want to complain about the lackluster supporting cast? We get it, but Andy Dalton had a 361-yard outing against Seattle in place of an injured Young back in Week 3. Just sayin’.
Young wasn’t necessarily expected to be a rock star in year one — but he was supposed to provide a glimmer of long-term hope for a fed-up Carolina fanbase. So far, however, he looks no better than any of the QBS the Panthers have used since 2018.
Star: Jalen Carter
Carter was previously the front-runner to go first overall, but his stock took a drop due to his involvement in a tragic fatal car accident that took the lives of teammate Devin Willock and Georgia staffer Chandler LeCroy.
Carter fell out of the top-five and wound up going ninth overall to the Philadelphia Eagles — who traded up one spot via the Chicago Bears to snag the hulking defensive tackle.
Carter has only played about half of the Eagles’ defensive snaps, and yet he’s already looked every bit like a superstar: Four sacks, two forced fumbles and five tackles for a loss through Philly’s first eight games.
Pro Football Focus also had Carter at an insane 90.6 grade when the Eagles went into their Week 10 bye. He’s merely a rotational player as a rookie and still playing at an All-Pro-level. Think about that.
Bust: Paris Johnson Jr.
The Arizona Cardinals had a chance to take a true franchise cornerstone in Will Anderson Jr. with the No. 3 pick — but they surrendered that selection to Houston.
And since the Texans won’t be giving away a top-10 pick like we all expected at the start of the year, this trade already feels like a lopsided defeat for the Cardinals. Too bad!
As part of the deal, Arizona got Houston’s No. 12 overall selection. They then flipped that to the Detroit Lions to move up and select Ohio State offensive tackle Paris Johnson Jr. at No. 6 overall. So far…not so good.
Per Pro Football Focus, Johnson Jr. played in 649 offensive snaps through his first 10 games. He had a woeful 52.5 grade, allowed three sacks and committed a whopping nine penalties. Insert “NOT GREAT BOB” GIF here.
It just felt like Arizona was better off staying at No. 3 and taking a “sure thing” in Anderson Jr. Yes, Johnson Jr. himself has lots of time to grow into a star — but the early results are truly underwhelming.
Johnson Jr. has been a bust in his rookie year. There’s no sugar-coating it. The only question now is if 2023 was simply a year of growing pains, or if the Cardinals really struck out on this big.
Star: Devon Witherspoon
Thanks to the Russell Wilson trade that wound up being a massive win for the Seahawks, they landed the No. 5 overall selection of 2023 from the Denver Broncos.
That allowed Seattle — a playoff team in 2022 by the way — to get even richer by taking Illinois corner Devon Witherspoon with the No. 5 pick. Witherspoon was the consensus top defensive back prospect in this class, and he’s lived up to the hype in every aspect thus far.
One of the league leaders in pass defenses, this ball-hawking specialist has mostly made his mark as a pure shutdown corner.
Witherspoon’s advanced statistics have been off the charts, as noted by the good folks of Pro Football Focus:
Witherspoon has also excelled in the run defense department as well. He’s a cornerback by trade, but Seattle has been able to use the versatile star all over the field — and he absolutely dominates wherever he lines up.
And to think this is only his rookie year, too!
Brace yourselves, NFL. The Legion of Boom 2.0 in Seattle is coming.
Bust: Emmanuel Forbes
Someone make it make sense.
The Commanders had the No. 7 scoring defense a year ago, drafted a promising corner in Emmanuel Forbes at No. 16 overall and now somehow field a defense that can’t stop a nosebleed.
Forbes isn’t to be blamed for the baffling shortcomings on Washington’s defense — but he wasn’t supposed to be this much of a liability, either. But alas, the Commanders have a problem in the secondary that Forbes is contributing to.
Washington has used Forbes in a rotational role, as he’s seen less than half the defensive snaps in games he’s suited up for. GOOD, because through his first nine Games, Forbes
allowed 409 yards in coverage and yielded an opposing passer rating of 99.6 when targeted — per Pro Football Reference.
Forbes’ struggles prompted Ron Rivera to bench him in the club’s games against Chicago and Atlanta. And to think the Commanders took him over Christian Gonzalez — who showed signs of growing into a bona fide superstar for the Patriots before his season-ending injury…
It’s a long road ahead for Forbes, alright.
Star: Puka Nacua
Nacua is the proud owner of the unofficial title for the biggest steal in the 2023 NFL Draft…so far.
The Los Angeles Rams selected the BYU product in the fifth round at No. 177 overall. Little did the football world know at the time that Nacua — not Cooper Kupp — would be the Rams’ offensive MVP this year.
Nacua had a dazzling debut for the Rams in their season-opening win against the Seahawks — racking up 10 catches for 119 yards. He stepped up big-time with Kupp sidelined for the first four games with a hamstring injury.
And even when Kupp returned to the field in Week 5, Nacua’s production didn’t decline one bit. He’s averaging approximately 20 yards per game more than the Super Bowl 56 MVP — even with quarterback Matt Stafford enduring another frustrating and injury-riddled year.
Nacua has a realistic shot of finishing in the top-five in both receptions and receiving yards. An incredible story for the BYU product that entered the NFL with practically zero expectations.
Who knows how many productive years Kupp has left, but even if he’s near the end of his prime, Nacua’s emergence has made everything that much more manageable for this retooling organization. If Kupp is the Rams’ WR2 going forward, that’s a scary thought for the rest of the league.
Bust: Quentin Johnston
Many viewed Johnston as a top-two receiver in this class alongside Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Those were the days…huh?
While Smith-Njigba can be excused for a “meh” rookie year because of the fact he plays with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett in Seattle, Johnston has no excuse for his underwhelming rookie season.
Heck, at this rate, Johnston probably won’t even finish as a top-15 rookie in receptions nor passing yards. Woof.
The Los Angeles Chargers lost top wideout Mike Wililams for the season in Week 3 when he tore his ACL. That immediately opened the door for Johnston to step up as the Chargers’ new WR2 behind Keenan Allen.
Or so we thought.
While Allen has regained his status as a WR1 — Johnston has been practically invisible on the field. And the lack of a true No. 2 receiver for Justin Herbert has largely contributed to the Chargers being a disappointment thus far.
Through the Bolts’ first nine games, Johnston had only 18 catches for 162 yards and a touchdown. Johnston’s first TD didn’t come until Week 10 against the Detroit Lions, a game the Chargers lost anyway.
If you go through Johnston’s game log, you’d think he was essentially a team’s second-stringer or on their practice squad. Nope. That’s the No. 21 pick who’s gotten next-to-nothing going in his rookie year.
On one hand, Brandon Staley and the coaches should be blamed for not knowing how to truly utilize Johnston — who’s only playing roughly half the Chargers’ offensive snaps. On the other hand, Johnson’s lack of production gives the Bolts’ coaches good reason to keep him in a reduced role.
Star: Will Anderson Jr.
As previously noted, the Texans traded up via the Cardinals to select Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. with the No. 3 pick.
While CJ Stroud is understandably getting most of the love and attention in H-Town, Anderson Jr’s arrival has also been instrumental in Houston’s unexpected success this year. Without Anderson Jr., the Texans’ D wouldn’t have experienced such a rapid turnaround under rookie head coach DeMeco Ryans.
His stats as a rookie aren’t eye-popping, but Anderson’s low sack totals and lack of turnovers shouldn’t deceive you.
For example, what if we told you that through Week 10, Anderson had the third-best EDGE Pass Rush Win Rate at ESPN — behind only Micah Parsons and Myles Garrett? There, you’ll see that he’s being double teamed on approximately one-fifth of his snaps, hence why Anderson Jr. isn’t quite racking up the sack totals.
And by the way, who sat first atop ESPN’s EDGE Run Stop Win Rate Rankings through Week 10? None other than Mr. Anderson Jr., with teammate Jonathan Greenard right behind him on that list.
Anderson Jr. is still getting after the quarterback at an alarming rate, and his run defense is that of an established First-team all-pro — not a rookie.
If it weren’t for the QB-needy Panthers, Anderson Jr. could have been the first overall pick in this year’s draft.
Other than Stroud, there’s a case to be made that Anderson Jr. is the best overall rookie of 2023. How lucky are Texans fans? They deserve it after that dreadful three-year stretch from 2020 to 2022!
Bust: Tyree Wilson
Defense has been a giant weakness for the Las Vegas Raiders for a while now, so it made perfect sense to use the No. 7 pick on Texas Tech defensive end Tyree Wilson.
Vegas has one of the league’s best edge rushers in Maxx Crosby, but the 2022 free agent signing of Chandler Jones turned out to be a big flop. The Raiders had hoped that pairing Wilson with Crosby would give them a prolific pass-rushing duo to deal with the gauntlet of elite signal-callers in the AFC.
But while Crosby has turned in another excellent season — and while the Raiders’ D has displayed vast improvement under Patrick Graham — Wilson has hardly been noticeable this year.
Wilson is playing less than half of the Raiders’ defensive snaps this year – and for good reason. PFF graded him at a miserable 40.3 through the Raiders’ first 10 games. That just isn’t going to cut it for any player — let alone a top-10 pick who’s supposed to be a franchise cornerstone.
No, Wilson’s career is not over. But it sure as heck hasn’t started off on a positive note — and that’s concerning for a Raiders team that’s trying to win now. All Raiders fans can do is cross their fingers and hope that he learns from his painful rookie year and puts it all together in 2024.
Which other 2023 NFL rookies already look like stars, and which ones look like busts?
