While some NFL quarterbacks are set to bounce back following meh to disappointing 2022 seasons, the stars aren’t aligned for QBs who exceeded expectations to play up to that Pro Bowl or MVP-like level again here in 2023.
With that said, here are five NFL quarterbacks who will improve in 2023, and five who will decline.
Improve: Russell Wilson
1. Wilson can’t possibly be as bad as last year, which means improvement is inevitable.
2. With Sean Payton now calling the shots on offense, Wilson — dare we say — can totally get back to the Pro Bowl form we watched for a decade in Seattle.
For starters, former head coach Nate Hackett simply wasn’t cut out for a head coaching job. The offensive line allowed Wilson to endure 55 sacks — more than any other QB last season. But GM George Paton signed two quality starters in Mike McGlinchey and Ben Powers to fix up that unit — which also simply can’t be as atrocious as it was a year ago.
Wilson has two dynamic receivers in Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton. A healthy Javonte Williams will bolster the ground game and push for 1,000 yards rushing, thus taking a lot of the pressure off of Wilson.
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Payton is one of the best offensive-minded coaches of all time. He made history with Drew Brees but also got quality production out of guys like Teddy Bridgewater, Taysom Hill and even Trevor Siemian of all people.
Not sure if the Broncos will be bonafide contenders, but the Payton-Wilson tandem has the potential to do serious damage across the NFL. Wilson is going to relish the coaching change, and as long as Payton doesn’t forget how football works overnight, he should help the future Hall of Famer regain his superstar form.
Decline: Kirk Cousins
Cousins didn’t set a career-high in completion percentage, passing yards or passing touchdowns in 2022, but it was easily the best season of his career.
Cousins was Captain Comeback in 2022, recording a ridiculous eight game-winning drives on the year. The Minnesota Vikings finished 13-4 to claim the NFC North division, only to fall to the New York Giants in the Wild Card Round.
Cousins completed 65.9 percent of pass attempts for 4,547 yards and 29 touchdowns against 14 interceptions. So, why are we fully convinced that he’s going to decline after his best all-around NFL season?
Well, let’s see here. The Vikings won a single-season record 11 one-score games. That’s not repeatable. The law of averages means Minny will lose more close games than usual in 2023. It’s gotta balance out.
Secondly, Cousins lost the ultra-reliable and trusted Adam Thielen, who was cut in a cap-saving move. Perhaps worse yet, Minny curiously released four-time Pro Bowl running back Dalvin Cook — who put up for straight seasons of 1,000 yards rushing.
So now opposing defenses don’t have to account for Cook nor Thielen. And as great as Justin Jefferson is, what are the odds of him putting up 1,809 receiving yards again, especially with less playmakers around to support him?
Were the Vikings really good or just really lucky in 2022? We’re inclined to believe it’s the latter, which means Cousins will come down to earth in his contract year — which would all but assure his exit from Minny in 202
Improve: Derek Carr
The Las Vegas Raiders’ decision to release Derek Carr will go down as one of the best things to happen to him. Rather than finish his career in mediocrity, Carr actually has the chance to win again here with the New Orleans Saints.
Carr no longer has to deal with Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes four times a year. Instead, he moves to the NFC South with rookie Bryce Young, the great unknown in Desmond Ridder AND…Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask as the starting QBs in the division.
Carr will play with a top-10 defense — something he never had with the Raiders — an elite offensive line and a deep set of weapons led by Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, Juwan Johnson and the powerful rushing duo of Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams.
Only the Atlanta Falcons have an easier strength of schedule for 2023 than New Orleans. So it’s all lined up perfectly for Carr and company to beat up on the plethora of not-so-intimidating opponents.
An elite defense. An elite o-line. A nice group of playmakers and an easy schedule. Yep, Carr will fare much better than the guy who completed just 60.8 percent of pass attempts for 3,522 yards, 24 touchdowns and 14 interceptions a year ago.
Decline: Geno Smith
We’ve raved about the Seahawks this offseason, and we certainly expect them to be a contender in the lackluster NFC again. Geno Smith also won’t quite-repeat the career year he had as a 32-year-old in 2022. Both things can be true.
Smith led the NFL with a 69.8 completion percentage in 2022. Considering his career completion percentage sits at 62.8, it’s safe to say that regression is inevitable.
Smith had 30 touchdowns against 11 interceptions en route to Comeback Player of the Year honors. He averaged 71.3 more passing yards per game in 2022 than his career average. That simply isn’t sustainable.
Also, a healthy Kenneth Walker III is sure to enjoy a much bigger role after crossing 1,000 yards rushing as a rookie. That means Smith will have a tough time matching or exceeding the passing numbers he put up last year.
And finally, you know opposing defenses will be a little more prepared for Smith after he caught them all off guard a year ago.
He should do more than enough to help Seattle reach the postseason again, but don’t expect Smith to have another career year in 2023. That’s asking for way too much.
Improve: Deshaun Watson
The Cleveland Browns decided to cut the cord on Baker Mayfield and controversially traded for Houston Texans’ signal-caller Deshaun Watson. After the trade, Watson agreed to a five-year extension worth a fully-guaranteed $230 million deal.
Watson was suspended for the first 11 games of 2022 following a series of disturbing misconduct allegations that saw him settle 23 lawsuits.
Watson was dreadful in the six games he played for Cleveland in 2022, completing 58.2 percent of pass attempts — the worst mark of his career — for 1,102 yards, seven touchdowns and five interceptions. Watson averaged a woeful 183.7 passing yards per game in those six contests.
It’s okay to loathe Watson and to hope he’ll struggle again in 2023. But like Russell Wilson, it’s hard to imagine Watson being any worse than he was last season. That’s just the reality.
Watson has now had a full year to learn the Browns offense. On top of that, GM Andrew Berry added extra weaponry by trading for Elijah Moore before using a third-round pick on speedy Tennessee wideout Cedric Tillman.
Watson will play behind a top-five o-line and alongside a top-three NFL running back in Nick Chubb. Amari Cooper, David Njoku and Donovan Peoples-Jones headline a scary-good pass-catching trio, too.
The Browns might not make the jump to Super Bowl contention, but Watson can only improve after a miserable six-game audition a year ago. It’s just hard to envision him flopping this badly again with all this elite talent around him.
Decline: Brock Purdy
We’re huge fans of Purdy, who saved the San Francisco 49ers’ last year after losing starter Trey Lance and second-stringer Jimmy Garoppolo with season-ending injuries.
2022 Mr. Irrelevant was anything but irrelevant. Purdy crushed Tom Brady in his first NFL start and won all five regular season games — completing 67.1 percent of pass attempts for 1,374 yards and 13 touchdowns against four interceptions.
Sadly, Purdy suffered a UCL tear in the NFC Championship Game — and the 49ers were wiped out by the Philadelphia Eagles. Purdy underwent surgery on the UCL but should be good to go for Week 1.
If he keeps the starting job, Purdy should still continue to produce in Kyle Shanahan’s offense. But he’s not catching anyone by surprise this time. Teams have had a full offseason to study Purdy and his antics, so there aren’t any more tricks up Shanahan’s sleeves to use.
Also worth noting Purdy only faced one team with a winning record in his five regular season starts. Now he’s gotta star through the course of an entire season.
We’re not saying Purdy will be a bust and lose his starting job. He’s just not gonna play mistake-free football over seven games like he did last year. Just be ready for some form of regression – even if it’s not much.
Improve: Kenny Pickett
Pickett may have won seven of his 12 starts as a rookie, but the actual stat line was mediocre at best: 2,404 passing yards, seven touchdowns, nine interceptions and just 184.9 passing yards per game.
But the Steelers still won with Pickett and only missed out on the postseason via tiebreaker. So expect much bigger things now that he has a full NFL season under his belt. Experience naturally will help Pickett build off a rocky rookie year.
That’s not all. The o-line was Pittsburgh’s main issue last year, but they grabbed a five-star offensive tackle in Broderick Jones by taking him 14th overall — and it certainly won’t take Pickett long to appreciate his pass protection.
Pickett also isn’t shy on big-time playmakers at his disposal: 1,000-yard back Najee Harris, star wideout Diontae Johnson, breakout candidate George Pickens and tight end Pat Freiermuth. And who knows, maybe veteran Allen Robinson returns to Pro Bowl form after a miserable year with the Los Angeles Rams.
Pickett was thrown into the fire early last season when he was asked to replace a struggling Mitch Trubisky. There’s no doubt who the starter is now, and you can bet Pickett will go off with an improved o-line and a deep set of playmakers at his disposal.
Decline: Jared Goff
Goff unexpectedly returned to his 2017-18 LA Rams-like form for the Lions in 2022, completing 65.1 percent of pass attempts for 4,438 yards and 29 touchdowns against only seven interceptions.
Detroit finished 9-and-8 last year for their first winning season in five years, but Seattle got the final wild card spot via tiebreaker. Now, the Lions are the trendy pick to win the NFC following a productive offseason.
We wouldn’t be shocked if the Lions became the kings of the wide-open NFC North, but we’re not sold on Goff repeating or topping last year’s success. Seven INTs was uncharacteristically low for a guy who threw a combined 49 picks in the previous four seasons.
Losing promising wideout Jameson Williams for six games to a suspension for gambling hurts big time. Also, Goff won’t have standout tight end TJ Hockenson — traded to Minnesota last year — for seven games this time around.
With Williams suspended, Goff will rely on Amon-Ra St. Brown and a 33-year-old Marvin Jones Jr. as his go-to weapons. And though David Montgomery and rookie Jahmyr Gibbs look like a nice RB duo on paper, there’s no guarantee that either will replace the production of Jamaal Williams.
Goff and the Lions just might be a playoff team in 2023. But he’s not going to repeat last year’s sublime stat line culminated with his third Pro Bowl appearance.
Improve: Mac Jones
Jones made the Pro Bowl in his rookie year after leading the New England Patriots to a 10-win season and postseason berth. But he had a miserable rookie year, missing three games to injury while suffering under the horror of a Matt Patricia and Joe Judge-coached offense.
The good news for Jones: Bill Belichick remembered to use logic and hired old friend Bill O’Brien to serve as the new OC. No more Patricia and Judge? Sign Jones and anyone with a brain up.
New England retooled its pass-catching corps to help Jones. They signed speedy slot receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster and ex-Miami Dolphins’ standout tight end Mike Gesicki.
1,000-yard back Rhamondre Stevenson, contested catch specialist DeVante Parker and veteran tight end Hunter Henry were a solid set of weapons to work with. And rookie Kayshon Boutte and second-year speedster Tyquan Thornton might be ready to make plays, too?
With an actual-qualified and successful OC leading the offense now, expect Jones to rebound after a miserable sophomore year.
Decline: Josh Allen
Allen finished third in MVP voting a year ago, finishing with 4,283 passing yards, 35 passing touchdowns and 762 rushing yards to go along with seven rushing scores. But it was all for naught, as his Buffalo Bills were crushed by the Cincinnati Bengals in the Divisional Round.
We still expect Allen to play like a top-five QB in 2023, but we simply don’t expect him to get near those numbers next year. It’s certainly worrisome that Stefon Diggs isn’t all-that-happy with his team, so that’s a storyline to follow here.
The Bills also watched top rusher Devin Singletary leave to free agency, and they kinda-surprisingly didn’t add a notable upgrade when they had the chance.
GM Brandon Beane curiously didn’t add a proven No. 2 receiver to help out Diggs. His one big move was drafting Utah tight end Dalton Kincaid, who might not have much of a role playing behind veteran Dawson Knox.
Also, Buffalo has the seventh-toughest strength of schedule for 2023. Aaron Rodgers now plays for the New York Jets, and the Patriots have a real OC to help Mac Jones now. So you can mark off four “gimme” wins for the Bills and file those under “tough” games.
Add it all up, and 2023 just feels like a year where Allen’s stat line takes a step back. Doesn’t mean his Bills won’t be prime Super Bowl contenders, but we’re not counting on a top-three finish in MVP voting again.
Which other NFL QBs will improve in 2023, and which ones will decline?
