With the 2023 NFL regular season essentially three-quarters over, we have a firm idea on where all 32 teams stand.
So, which teams will realistically compete for the Super Bowl, and which regular season darlings should you avoid buying into? Here are five legitimate Super Bowl 58 contenders, and five big-time pretenders.
Contender: San Francisco 49ers
When they’re clicking on all cylinders, nobody is more dangerous than Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers. Remember, they’re potentially a non-Brock-Purdy elbow injury away from being the defending Super Bowl champions…
Regardless of where they finish in the league-wide standings, the 49ers should be considered the team to beat in the postseason.
For one, they have the league’s best set of weapons in likely rushing champion Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. Doesn’t matter how you feel about Purdy as a QB — he is producing like a Pro Bowler with all those superstars at his disposal.
And as usual, the 49ers’ D ranks near the very top in total defense and yards allowed. Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, Fred Warner, Chase Young, Charvarius Ward AND Javon Hargrave? Good luck — and we shouldn’t remind you that Young and Hargrave weren’t even on the 49ers a year ago.
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No, Shanahan hasn’t won the big one yet — but three NFC Championship Games in four years is a testament to his coaching. These guys know what it takes to win in the postseason, it’s just a matter of having the bounces go their way for once.
Be very afraid of the 49ers — because they are the best all-around team with no clear-cut weaknesses.
Pretender: Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins have been such a joy to watch this year. A healthy Tua Tagovailoa has made all the difference in the world, and this offensive juggernaut has been even scarier than last year thanks to the super RB duo of Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane.
Led by the league’s coolest head coach in Mike McDaniel, the Dolphins’ crafty offensive schemes have overwhelmed opposing defenses with their lightning-quick speed. Look no further than this October stat from Next Gen Stats:
Tyreek Hill is on pace to break the record for most receiving yards in a single season, and Jaylen Waddle is as good of a WR2 as it gets. So, why do we have the Dolphins listed as a pretender?
Well, one just has to remember that their first three losses came against the Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles — three other championship hopefuls. And the ‘Phins were thoroughly dominated in those contests.
Miami’s lone win against a quality opponent came against the Denver Broncos in Week 3. And Denver was 0-and-2 coming into that game.
The Dolphins have been exposed against top-notch competition — not to mention they’re near the bottom-10 in scoring defense.
Fair or not, the Dolphins are just hard to trust when they aren’t playing opponents. They were out of sync and looked completely overmatched in their losses to Buffalo, KC and Philly, and guess what? You don’t face terrible teams in the postseason.
So we’re not buying the hype on the Dolphins this year. Not in that loaded AFC.
Contender: Philadelphia Eagles
Like the 49ers, the Eagles are potentially one unlucky break away from being the defending Super Bowl champions. In Philly’s case, a non-tacky James Bradberry defensive holding call away from being the reigning champs.
At any rate, the Eagles have bounced back beautifully from last year’s Super Bowl heartbreak and look every bit as dangerous as last year’s group. Well actually, they didn’t have rookie sensation Jalen Carter a year ago…so take that as you will.
Jalen Hurts is the man to beat in the MVP race. DeVonta Smith and AJ Brown are the league’s best receiving duo not named Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Dallas Goedert and D’Andre Swift are producing plenty as well — not to mention that the Eagles only have arguably football’s best offensive line.
The secondary has had its struggles this year due to injuries, but you won’t find many better defensive back cores than Philly’s: Bradberry, Darius Slay and trade deadline pickup Kevin Byard.
Carter, Fletcher Cox, Brandon Graham, Josh Sweat and Haason Reddick headline football’s deepest front seven group, too. They were never gonna top last year’s sack total of 70, but they’re still scary as any other NFL position group.
So why can’t the Eagles pull off a 2017-2018 New England Patriots move by losing the Super Bowl one year only to redeem themselves by winning it the following season? They’re certainly well-built for a second straight Super Bowl appearance — only this time it just might end with them celebrating on the big stage.
Pretender: Buffalo Bills
The Bills again entered the year as another top Super Bowl favorite. But unlike the last two seasons, Sean McDermott’s group hasn’t really looked like a team that’s actually capable of winning it all.
The offense was so maddeningly inconsistent that offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey was fired after Week 10. Josh Allen is having an uncharacteristically tough year as the league-leader in picks thrown through Week 12 with 13. He’s on pace to easily toss a career-high in that category.
As usual, no other pass-catcher has stepped up to help Stefon Diggs. Buffalo is once again overly-reliant on the Allen-Diggs connection in the passing game. How did that recipe work out in their last three playoff losses again?
The defense hasn’t lived up to its standards, either. Von Miller didn’t have a single sack through Week 12. Top corner Tre’Davious White is out for the year with a torn Achilles, as is Matt Milano with a fractured leg.
Micah Hyde isn’t playing like the Pro Bowl safety Bills fans have come to love, and boy does this front seven miss Tremaine Edmunds.
And then you look at the Bills’ first six losses: All by one-score games. Some might argue they’re unlucky, but to us, that’s just proof that McDermott can’t be trusted to wisely manage close games. See the 13-second game in KC two years ago.
Buffalo might barely squeak in as a wild card team, but don’t think for a moment that they’re going to catch fire and go off in the postseason. Their ceiling is one playoff win this year — and we’d be shocked if they even got that far.
Contender: Jacksonville Jaguars
It feels like the Jaguars are being heavily overlooked in the AFC…even though they’re in the running for the conference’s top seed…and even though they reached the elite eight a season ago.
But make no mistake, this team is just as dangerous as any other in the AFC when they’re on their game. Trevor Lawrence is a top-10 QB in the game with a ridiculous set of weapons in Christian Kirk, Calvin Ridley, Evan Engram and do-it-all running back Travis Etienne Jr.
Josh Allen is having a career year, having just hit double-digit sacks for the first time since his rookie year. Foyesade Oluokun and Travon Walker can take over a game at any moment, giving the Jaguars a dangerous 3-headed monster in the front seven.
The secondary has had its struggles this year, but Darious Williams, Tyson Campbell and Andre Cisco still headline one of the better defensive back trios in the AFC. Again — not one you want to have to face in January.
The Jaguars are loaded with star power and difference-makers on both sides of the ball. Even if Lawrence and the offense have an off game, the Allen-led defense can play hero and save the day. And vice versa.
Oh, and did we mention that Doug Pederson is a Super Bowl-winning head coach who knows what it takes to capture the Lombardi Trophy? Yeah, these guys are as dangerous as an actual Jaguar in the open wild. You better take ‘em seriously.
Pretender: Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers offense ranks near the bottom in most major categories — hence Matt Canada’s firing — yet they just keep finding ways to win.
That’s because of two things: A super-stingy TJ Watt-led defense and the grade-A coaching job of Mike Tomlin. It’s not often pretty with the Steelers, but Tomlin’s guys are a confident group that win the old fashioned way with a smash-em-in-the-mouth defense and a productive rushing game.
But it’s truly difficult to take these guys seriously as Super Bowl contenders this year. I mean, just look at the fact that they didn’t outgain an opponent yardage-wise until Week 12…against the Joe Burrow-less Cincinnati Bengals.
Sorry, but relying on 17-14 wins and all that isn’t gonna work on Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Tua Tagovailoa in the postseason.
The Steelers’ sluggish passing game and leaky o-line mean that they’re not a team that’s built to come from behind. And with all due respect to Kenny Pickett, it’s clear that he’s far from ready to lead his team on a deep postseason run.
Making the postseason should be considered enough of a victory for Pittsburgh this year. This isn’t to say they can’t win a Super Bowl with this core in the coming years, but they’re still a season or two away. This is not the year for Lombardi Trophy No. 7.
Contender: Baltimore Ravens
Hard to believe that the Ravens only have one playoff victory in the Lamar Jackson era. But this team truly feels different, and 2023 might be the year the Ravens finally experience their first deep postseason run with No. 8.
Let’s get the obvious out of the way: Jackson has stayed healthy this year and is back to his MVP-like form. As usual, they boast football’s best rushing attack with Jackson and Gus Edward and secondary contributors Justice Hill and Keaton Mitchell.
Even with star tight end Mark Andrews out for the year, Baltimore has a nice set of pass-catchers in rookie standout Zay Flowers and veterans Odell Beckham Jr. and Nelson Agholor.
And for those in the “Defense wins championships” category? The Ravens lead the NFL in sacks and are neck-and-neck with the Cleveland Browns for fewest yards allowed and with the 49ers for fewest points allowed.
John Harbaugh’s Ravens can beat you in every phase of the game. Oh, and it helps having the game’s best kicker of all-time in Justin Tucker IN CASE the Ravens need him to make a field goal in crunch time…
Harbaugh himself is also a Super Bowl-winning head coach by the way. Add it all up, and you have the recipe of a championship team. Let’s see if Baltimore finally breaks through this year.
Pretender: Detroit Lions
We’d absolutely love to buy into this feel-good story and envision the Lions winning the franchise’s first Super Bowl title. Perhaps no NFL fanbase is more deserving of a championship parade than the Detroit faithful.
But…we’re just not seeing 2023 as the year the Lions break through. Honestly, the fact they’re going to win the franchise’s first division title in 30 years is a good enough start. Fans should be happy with that.
Detroit’s lone win against a quality opponent came against Kansas City in Week 1…when the Chiefs didn’t have Travis Kelce or Chris Jones. After watching them get throttled at home by a mediocre Green Bay Packers team at Thanksgiving, we quickly came to realize this might be “the same old Lions.”
Jared Goff is still too prone to the back-breaking turnovers that can cripple a team in the postseason, for starters. David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs form a scary rushing duo, but what if the Lions fall behind in a playoff game? They’re going to have to abandon the run and ask Goff to play catch-up — and that’s playing with fire.
Also, the Lions’ defense isn’t exactly…championship caliber. They still have a secondary that’s prone to giving up big plays against quality offenses…and Dan Campbell’s D ranks near the bottom 10 in scoring.
Detroit might win its first playoff game since 1991, but we’re not seeing a scenario where they outlast the 49ers or Eagles in the NFC.
Contender: Kansas City Chiefs
This one needn’t explanation. Patrick Mahomes is the best QB in the game. Andy Reid is the best coach in the game. Travis Kelce is the best non-wide receiver offensive weapon in the game.
The Chiefs have played in five straight AFC Championship Games and three of the last four Super Bowls. They’re the defending champions and know better than anybody what it takes to win.
To make things scarier? This ultra-stingy defense is easily the best Mahomes has had. And what did we say about defense winning championships?
You know who these Chiefs are. When everything’s on the line, no team rises in the moment like these guys. Moving on…
Pretender: Dallas Cowboys
We’re probably never going to hop on the Cowboys’ Super Bowl hype train unless they actually get back to the big dance.
Every year, the Cowboys just find a new way to choke in the postseason. They had top-10 scoring offenses in both 2021 and 2022 and still managed just a single playoff win.
Dak Prescott is playing like an MVP candidate this year, sure. But he’s never been money in the postseason, as evidenced by his 2-4 playoff record. Remember that Week 5 humiliation against the 49ers? Just another sign that Dallas can’t win big games away from home.
Dallas didn’t even beat a team with a winning record until Week 13 against Seattle, so don’t be fooled by their status as the league’s No. 1 offense. It’s easy to beat down on horrible teams.
The Cowboys do this every year. They look great in the regular season…fans think this year is different..but the results stay the same. We’re just not trusting Dallas to win the big one until/unless we see it for ourselves.
Until then, get ready for another Cowboys playoff chokejob — coming to a television screen near you!
Who do you think will win Super Bowl 58?
