When you hear “NFL MVP,” you probably picture a quarterback making highlight-reel plays. And you wouldn’t be wrong- the award is practically a “best quarterback” title these days. But could a running back break through the QB monopoly? With Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry putting together an epic 2024 season, it’s worth asking: is it possible for a running back to win MVP?
Let’s dig into the history and current landscape to find out.
History of Running Back MVPs
Yes, running backs have won the NFL MVP title. In fact, 18 running backs have claimed the honor since the award’s inception in 1957. Legendary names like Jim Brown, O.J. Simpson, and LaDainian Tomlinson grace the list. Jim Brown, the only running back to win MVP multiple times, took home the trophy in 1957, 1958, and 1965.
However, recent history tells a different story. The last time a running back won MVP was Adrian Peterson in 2012. He returned from a torn ACL to deliver 2,097 rushing yards- the second-most in NFL history- on 348 carries, alongside 12 rushing touchdowns. Before Peterson, Shaun Alexander (2005), LaDainian Tomlinson (2006), and Marshall Faulk (2000) were the only running backs to win MVP in the 21st century.
Since 2000, quarterbacks have dominated, winning 16 MVPs. From 2013 to 2023, quarterbacks claimed all 11 MVPs. The NFL’s shift to a pass-heavy game has made it tougher for running backs to get the spotlight, no matter how great their performance.
Derrick Henry’s 2024 Campaign
Derrick Henry’s 2024 season with the Ravens has been nothing short of phenomenal. He’s scored in each of his first nine games with Baltimore, a streak unmatched since the 1970 merger. His numbers are eye-popping:
- Rushing Yards: 1,783 (leads the NFL)
- Scrimmage Yards: 1,953 (leads the NFL)
- Rushing Touchdowns: 14 (leads the NFL)
- Scrimmage Touchdowns: 16 (leads the NFL)
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Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry may have to duke it out for MVP, according to @tracywolfson.
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) November 3, 2024
King Henry gave his pick 👀 pic.twitter.com/24ptjTWnX1
Henry is just the eighth player in NFL history to post 1,000 rushing yards and double-digit touchdowns through nine games. Five of the last nine players to achieve this feat won MVP, including Shaun Alexander (2005) and Terrell Davis (1998).
Also Read: What Are The NFL All-Time Running Back Records?
The Challenge of Breaking the MVP Drought
For a running back to win MVP today, it takes a historic season and a lack of standout quarterback performances. Unfortunately for Henry, both conditions might not be in his favor. His Ravens teammate, Lamar Jackson, is putting up an MVP-worthy campaign himself.
Jackson is on pace for 4,493 passing yards, 42 passing touchdowns, and 953 rushing yards. His current efficiency metrics are off the charts: he’s averaging 0.35 EPA (expected points added) per dropback, which would rank as the fifth-best season since 2000. Only Peyton Manning (2004, 2005), Tom Brady (2007), and Aaron Rodgers (2011) have posted better marks—all MVP-winning seasons.
National reaction to Lamar Jackson running himself back into MVP race vs. Texans https://t.co/HaJ9byOl6I pic.twitter.com/jD1r73fpWG
— The Ravens Wire (@TheRavensWire) December 27, 2024
Jackson’s performance highlights the modern MVP voting trend: prioritize quarterbacks leading successful teams. Unless Jackson’s form significantly dips in the second half of the season, Henry’s MVP hopes will likely fall short.
Why the Odds Are Stacked Against Running Backs
The NFL’s evolution into a pass-centric league has tilted the MVP race in favor of quarterbacks. Teams lean on QBs to drive offensive success, and MVP voters reflect that emphasis. The most recent non-quarterback MVPs, like Peterson and Tomlinson, had seasons that defied expectations, breaking records or carrying their teams to playoff berths single-handedly.
Henry’s 2024 dominance mirrors the seasons of past running back MVPs, but it might not be enough in today’s NFL. With Jackson and other quarterbacks putting up remarkable numbers, the bar for running backs is almost impossibly high.
Can a Running Back Win MVP Again?
It’s possible but highly unlikely. A running back would need a historic season and a perfect storm of underwhelming quarterback performances to win MVP. Henry is doing his part, dominating every rushing category. But the odds- and the modern NFL’s quarterback bias- remain firmly against him.
