We’re still a ways away from the 2023 NFL regular season, but it’s never too early to peer into the crystal ball and wonder how next year’s free agent market will play out.
The 2024 class is loaded with superstar running backs, elite pass-rushers and Pro Bowl-level wideouts. So, how will the chaos unfold in March 2024?
Without further ado, we present our way-too-early predictions on where the top 15 NFL free agents of 2024 will land.
Kirk Cousins: Atlanta Falcons
It just feels like the Minnesota Vikings are ready to move on from Cousins after 2023. They can’t use the franchise tag on him in 2024 and have made it pretty clear to him they’re not keen on an extension at this time.
When you look around the league, there aren’t many teams that make logical sense as landing spots for a QB who will be 36 years of age in 2024. At the same time, the bottom-feeders with the need for a quarterback can just find someone in the draft.
So Cousins will likely land with a middle-of-the-road team, and the Falcons make sense. Arthur Smith got seven wins out of a team with Marcus Mariota and Desmond Ridder as its quarterbacks last year.
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Adding Cousins to an offense featuring Kyle Pitts, Drake London, Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier would be a scary thought for the NFC. Cousins could put up a career year in Smith’s offense with virtually unlimited weaponry.
A two-year pact for Cousins makes the most sense for the two parties.
Josh Jacobs: Los Angeles Rams
The Rams project to have just over $48 million in cap space in 2024, meaning GM Les Snead will FINALLY be able to spend freely again after being right up against the cap over the last few years..
The Rams have lacked a true big-time running back threat since Todd Gurley’s last great season in 2018. Matt Stafford can’t be asked to carry the offense this much given his recent back injuries and age.
Jacobs would fit beautifully in the Rams’ offense as a do-it-all running back. An offensive genius like McVay made Gurley an MVP-caliber player. Now let’s give him a new special toy and former rushing leader to headline the offense in 2024.
Saquon Barkley: Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins haven’t had a 1,000-yard receiver since Jay Ajayi way-back-when in 2016. In other words, help desperately wanted in the backfield!
With Tua Tagovailoa, Jaylen Waddle and Jaelan Phillips on their rookie deals, this is Miami’s time to go all-in. They already followed that mindset by trading for Tyreek Hill and Jalen Ramsey, but adding one of the game’s most explosive running backs could lift them from “playoff contender” to “Super Bowl contender.”
Mike McDaniel got solid running back production out of Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. in 2022. What about giving him a workhorse running back who produces both in the ground game and as a pass-catcher?
It also helps that the Dolphins play in a state with no income tax, so that would help them outbid the other competitors for Barkley’s services. An offense with Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle AND Barkley? Mercy!
Mike Evans: Buffalo Bills
Evans already has the big bucks, a Hall of Came case and most importantly a Super Bowl 55 championship ring. So why finish his career on a rebuilding Tampa Bay Buccaneers team when he can chase extra greatness and rings elsewhere?
Evans is one of football’s premier deep threats and contested catch artists. He would do absolute wonders in that Buffalo offense with Josh Allen’s mad-scrambling skills and prolific deep ball.
Because Evans will be on the wrong side of 30, a two or three-year deal worth $15 million or so annually makes sense for both sides…especially if a seemingly disgruntled Stefon Diggs is out of Buffalo by next year.
Tee Higgins: Houston Texans
The Cincinnati Bengals would love to keep Higgins, but he’s probably going to rightfully chase WR1 money. And you can’t blame him, because that’s more attractive than taking a pay cut to play second-fiddle to Ja’Marr Chase.
Higgins has exceeded 70 catches and 1,000 yards receiving in each of the last two seasons, with 13 total touchdowns over that span. And that’s while sharing targets with Chase and another stud receiver in Tyler Boyd.
Many teams will be happy to give Higgins a) True WR1 money and b) the opportunity to be the undisputed go-to-receiver in their offense. Looking around the league, the Texans already feel like a natural fit.
The Texans need to supply CJ Stroud with as much weaponry as possible — and they’ll have the cap space to outbid just about everybody else for Higgins. Stroud’s deep arm and improvising abilities would go hand-in-hand with Higgins’ 50-50 ball skills.
Brian Burns: Carolina Panthers
It’s simply hard to envision the Panthers moving on from their only true and proven bonafide superstar.
Burns is one of the game’s elite edge rushers, having posted a career-high 12.5 sacks last season. Explosive defensive play-makers of his era just don’t come around too often, and the Panthers have every reason to hand him a nine-figure contract.
If a long-term extension isn’t possible, there’s always the franchise tag. He’s staying put one way or another.
Quinnen Williams: New York Jets
With Aaron Rodgers now leading the way, the Jets are officially in win-now mode. And that means doing whatever it takes in keeping all your franchise players — especially the young studs that are just entering their prime years.
Williams, the No. 3 selection in the 2019 NFL Draft, has low-key been one of the game’s top pass-rushers over the last three years. After a “meh” rookie year, Williams has racked up 25 total sacks since 2020 — including a career-high 12 in 2022.
Williams and Sauce Gardner are the backbones of Robert Saleh’s defense. If the Jets let Williams walk, what are the odds they’ll find an equal or superior defensive tackle? Practically zero, assuming Aaron Donald or Chris Jones don’t walk through that door.
No reason to think Williams will hit the open market. It’s a lucrative long-term deal or the franchise tag in 2024. He’s not going anywhere.
Jeffery Simmons: Tennessee Titans
Simmons has cemented himself as one of the game’s top interior defensive linemen. And even if the Titans decide to rebuild without Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill in 2024, they surely view Simmons as a long-term foundational piece.
Similar deal here as Brian Burns in Carolina. If the Titans can’t hit a long-term deal with Simmons ahead of free agency, they’ll place the franchise tag on him.
Tennessee boasts one of football’s best front sevens, especially in the rushing D department. Do not be surprised if Simmons’ extension pushes nine figures. He’s that good and that instrumental to the team’s success.
Trevon Diggs: Las Vegas Raiders
The Dallas Cowboys would love to keep their ball-hawking specialist long-term, but the salary cap doesn’t let teams retain all of their star players. Jerry Jones is used to bidding farewell to expensive veterans — see Ezekiel Elliott, Dalton Schultz, Amari Cooper — when the occasion calls for it.
As great a playmaker Diggs is on the ball, he’s not exactly one of football’s elite shutdown cornerbacks. He’s still prone to giving up big plays, and so the Cowboys shouldn’t be shy to let him walk and seek greener pastures.
And who better to overpay for a good-not-elite corner than Mark Davis’ Raiders? They too play in a state with no income tax and can offer Diggs all the money he wants. Plus, y’know, Vegas needs a guy who can make SOME plays against Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert in that division.
Don’t be surprised if Diggs signs the biggest free agent deal ever for a cornerback.
T.J. Hockenson: Indianapolis Colts
Michae Pittman Jr. is the only proven play-making pass-catcher on the Colts’ offense, and he too is a free agent in 2024. Whether Pittman Jr. stays or not, the Colts have to add more receiving help around Anthony Richardson.
Hockenson is coming off a career year split with the Vikings and Detroit Lions in which he recorded 86 receptions for 914 yards and six touchdowns. Think the Colts could use a nice third down security blanket and receiving weapon to help Richardson blossom? So do we.
With a plethora of cap space coming on the books in 2024, the Colts shouldn’t be shy to overpay Hockenson a little bit. There aren’t many tight ends of his caliber, and rarely do they ever hit the open market, after all.
Antoine Winfield Jr.: Houston Texans
Winfield Jr. has been low-key one of football’s best do-it-all safeties since breaking into the league in 2020. Not only is he superb in coverage, but Winfield also flourishes as a pass-rusher — having recorded a career-best four sacks in 2023.
Gotta think Winfield Jr. will be hesitant to re-up on a Tampa Bay team facing a dark future with Tom Brady long gone. And with Winfield Jr. just entering his prime years, he should be sold on the idea of joining an up-and-coming Houston team.
New head coach DeMeco Ryans has a knack for getting the most out of all his defensive players. He could do wonders with a chess piece like Winfield Jr., who would form a scary-good defensive back duo alongside rising star Derek Stingley Jr.
Jonathan Taylor: Indianapolis Colts
Yes, there are plenty of reason examples about why teams shouldn’t extend a star running back long-term. Todd Gurley, Devonta Freeman, Ezekiel Elliott and Joe Mixon especially come to mind.
But there are also guys like Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Nick Chubb, Austin Ekeler and of course Derrick Henry who showed that sometimes the risk is worth taking.
And with the Colts building their offense around a dual-threat QB like Anthony Richardson, why would you let a player like Taylor walk? If it weren’t for injuries, the 2021 rushing champion would have easily crossed 1,000 yards again in 2022.
Taylor will only be entering his age-25 season come 2024. He’s absolutely worth investing in long-term. Because quite frankly, who’s stopping a rushing game anchored by Taylor AND Richardson?
You gotta give your young quarterback all the playmakers. How does Richardson benefit from Taylor leaving town? That’s right. He doesn’t.
Chris Jones: Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs haven’t been afraid to let big-named players like Tyreek Hill, Tyrann Mathieu, Dee Ford, Frank Clark or Orlando Brown Jr. walk when the money isn’t right.
But how do you move on from a future Hall of Famer like Chris Jones, who only seems to get better with age? No way the Chiefs win Super Bowls 54 or 57 without his power, strength and consistent game-wrecking ways.
Other than maybe Aaron Donald, there isn’t a better defensive tackle in the game than Jones. The Chiefs are strictly in win-now mode, and that means paying Jones whatever he wants as Andy Reid and company chase dynasty status.
Derrick Henry: Philadelphia Eagles
We know that running backs tend to slow down well before their 30th birthdays, but Henry is like the T-1000 from “Terminator 2: Judgment Day”. That is, he’s built differently and practically an unbreakable force when he’s healthy.
But regardless of how he fares in 2023, it’s hard to envision the Titans committing long-term money to a 30-year-old Henry next year. It just feels like he’ll go ring-chasing and sign a short-term pact with a contender.
And why not the Eagles? Their top two RBs, D’Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny, are only under contract for 2023. A big, bruising RB like Henry would be the cherry on top of an offense featuring Jalen Hurts, the league’s best o-line and arguably the game’s best receiving duo in DeVonta Smith and AJ Brown.
A one or two-year deal for Henry makes perfect sense. If money is an issue, they can add incentives. But this is the logical landing spot for Henry if he’s looking for the right fit and, most importantly, the chance to win a Super Bowl.
Nick Bosa: San Francisco 49ers
Sorry to be boring and predictable, but where else would Bosa go? Why would the San Francisco 49ers let the heart-and-soul of their defense leave? Why would Bosa want to play anywhere else?
The reigning Defensive Player of the Year has made his case as the game’s best edge rusher. The 49ers had no problem re-upping George Kittle, Trent Williams, Fred Warner and Deebo Samuel to long-term extensions. And they surely won’t shy away from doing the same for Bosa.
He’s here to stay for a long time. Sorry, 49ers haters and fellow NFC teams.
Where do you think the top 15 NFL free agents of 2024 will sign?
