The 2024 NFL Draft was supposed to bring clarity to the Chicago Bears. With the No. 1 overall pick, they made what seemed like a franchise-altering decision, selecting Caleb Williams. Yet now, only a month into the season, a question lingers—did the Bears make the wrong choice by passing on Jayden Daniels?
Both quarterbacks are just four games into their NFL careers, so it’s far too early to make a definitive judgment. However, early impressions matter, and they can set the stage for a season or even a career. In this opening act, Daniels shines brighter, raising doubts about whether the Bears should have taken him over Williams. Let’s dive into their early performances and what it might mean for their futures.
Early Season Numbers: Jayden Daniels Impresses, Caleb Williams Struggles
The statistical contrast between Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams through the first four games is eye-catching. Daniels holds a quarterback rating of 107.4 and averages 8.5 yards per attempt. Williams, by comparison, has struggled, posting a passer rating of just 72.0 with a 5.6 yards-per-attempt average.
This brings to mind a similar situation from a season ago, where C.J. Stroud had a stellar start to his career with a 100.6 passer rating and 8.03 yards per attempt through four games, while Bryce Young, another top pick, stumbled out of the gate with a 77.0 rating and 5.21 yards per attempt. Like Young, Williams’ slow start has raised concerns. While it’s too soon to write him off, these early numbers are hard to ignore.
A Closer Look At Accuracy And Offensive Philosophy
When it comes to accuracy, Daniels has been far more efficient. He’s completed 84.6% of his passes, the best rate in the NFL, while Williams lags with a 72.6% completion rate. But it’s not just about completing passes. The style of play for each quarterback has been drastically different.
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Under Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, Daniels has been operating a system built on short, high-percentage throws, which has allowed him to thrive early. On the other hand, Williams has been asked to take more risks with deeper throws, resulting in mixed outcomes. His average target depth is higher than Daniels’, but the accuracy and results haven’t been as favorable. While both quarterbacks are executing their respective game plans, Daniels has been more effective so far.
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Scheme and Separation: Why Daniels Is Succeeding
Part of what’s helping Daniels is the offensive scheme and his receivers’ ability to get open. Daniels’ receivers are creating more separation than any other group in the league, which has made his job much easier. Williams, meanwhile, is dealing with average receiver separation, making his throws more difficult.
Daniels’ offensive system has been designed to create easy completions, while Williams is being asked to rely more on his natural talent. This difference in approach highlights the impact of coaching and scheme on rookie quarterbacks. While Daniels has been set up for success with more straightforward reads and more open targets, Williams is shouldering a heavier burden.
Minimizing Mistakes: The “Destroy Rate” For Caleb Williams
Another metric that provides insight into their performance is the “Destroy Rate,” which measures how often a quarterback decides to sabotage a play. Daniels has the lowest “Destroy Rate” in the NFL, meaning he’s avoiding costly mistakes. Conversely, Williams ranks near the bottom of this category, showing that he’s making more negative plays. This stat shows how Daniels has been more careful with the football, while Williams has been prone to errors.
Running Ability: Daniels’ Dual-Threat Advantage
In today’s NFL, a quarterback’s mobility is a valuable asset, and in this area, Daniels has been significantly more effective than Williams. Daniels leads the league with 23 scrambles, accumulating 168 yards and nine first downs. Williams has been more conservative, with only seven scrambles for 68 yards and three first downs.
Daniels’ rushing ability was a key part of his game at LSU, where he racked up over 1,100 rushing yards in 2023. The Bears knew they were getting a less mobile quarterback in Williams, but they likely didn’t expect such a clear advantage for Daniels in this area so early on. While Williams’ creativity with his legs was often compared to Patrick Mahomes during his college days, Daniels has proven to be the more dynamic runner in the NFL.
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The Keenan Allen Effect: Caleb Williams’ Potential Turning Point?
Williams had his best season performance in Week 4 when he posted a 106.6 passer rating in a win over the Rams. A critical factor in this performance was the return of veteran wide receiver Keenan Allen, who played 38 snaps and hauled in several crucial receptions.
Allen’s presence provides Williams with a reliable target and a veteran who can create separation. This could be a turning point for Williams as he continues to develop chemistry with his receiving corps. With Allen back in the lineup, Williams’ numbers could start trending in the right direction, but for now, Daniels’ consistency has given him the edge.
Final Thoughts: Is It Too Early To Judge?
So, did the Bears make a mistake by drafting Caleb Williams over Jayden Daniels? It’s still too early to give a definitive answer, but Daniels has outshined Williams based on the first four games. He’s been more accurate and has better numbers, and his ability to run adds an extra dimension to his game.
While Williams is still an incredibly talented passer with high potential, his early struggles suggest the Bears might have some second thoughts. For now, Daniels’ cleaner play and efficiency make him the early favorite in this comparison, but Williams still has plenty of time to prove Chicago made the right call.
Also Read: Where Do The NFC East Teams Stack Up After Four Weeks Of 2024 NFL Season?
