For college football players, it doesn’t get much bigger than the NFL Draft. It is a chance to hear your name called among the top players in the country and land one of the scarce NFL roster spots.
There are, of course, a number of factors that go into where a player will be taken in the draft.
First, his college resume—what he did while he was on the NCAA gridiron.
But once the collegiate career is wrapped up—a given player’s draft stock can still be very volatile based on how he does at the combine and shifting perceptions from scouts and player personnel execs around the NFL.
This year is no different! Let’s take a look at six NFL draft prospects whose stocks are rising ahead of the draft and six that are falling!
Rising – Edgerrin Cooper, LB (Texas A&M)
Heading into the NFL Draft, Edgerrin Cooper out of Texas A&M was widely regarded as the top off-ball linebacking prospect. His college career was more than enough for him to stand out among the masses, but after the combine, his stock has risen even higher.
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Despite having one of the longer frames amongst his position group, which doesn’t always lend itself to explosiveness, he ran an impressive 4.51 40-yard dash.
Scouts are becoming enchanted with the former Aggie standout and we are now seeing him climb the larger ranks outside of his specific position group.
Falling – Keon Coleman, WR (FSU)
There was a time when folks thought Keon Coleman, the young, talented wide receiver out of Florida State was a definite to be taken in the first round of the Draft, but it is starting to look like that dream is fading.
He is a more physically imposing receiver weighing in at 213 pounds—and he did manage to post an impressive 38-inch vertical leap… but nevertheless, a 4.61 40-yard dash isn’t going to cut it in the eyes of draft scouts.
The other issue that has started to worry scouts is the way that the 6’ 3” wideout gets in and out of his breaks while running routes.
That said, this is a very similar profile and sentiment to the narrative that was crafted around D.K. Metcalf heading into this draft year—and that turned out alright!
Either way, in the short term, it looks like Coleman’s stock is taking a hit and he may very well end up falling out of the first round.
Rising – Jaylen Wright, RB (Tennessee)
The Tennessee Volunteers have been on the upswing over the past few seasons and their now-former running back, Jaylen Wright seems to be riding that wave as well!
The 5’ 10” and 210-pound running back was fairly productive during his Volunteer career, he tallied 2297 yards and 18 touchdowns during his three years on campus.
NFL executives are quickly becoming more and more enchanted with the talented young running back—in part because of his age. He is entering the draft as a 20-year-old and will be 21 for the entirety of his rookie season, meaning that if he can fit into the right system, the team could be getting a talented running back with less tread on his tires than many of his peers.
If that wasn’t enough to get the scouts and player personnel folks excited, he has also exited the combine widely regarded as the most athletic running back in the class. He finished second among running backs in the 40-yard dash with a 4.38, broad jumped 11’ 2”, which was top amongst backs, and clipped a 38” vertical leap which was good for 4th in his position.
Wright also managed to hit 15 miles per hour within his first five-yard split of the 40, which is insane for that short of a distance.
Needless to say, there is a plethora of growing excitement about the former Tennessee standout and we could even see him sneak into the end of the first round despite the negative sentiment around taking running backs that high in the draft.
Falling – Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB (Alabama)
Former University of Alabama standout corner, Kook-Aid McKinstry was one of the top prospects at his position heading into the draft, unfortunately, disaster struck and he has recently uncovered a Jones Fracture in his foot, which is a very non-trivial break.
That said, he is still a blue-blood prospect. He was Mr. Football in Alabama as a senior in high school and widely regarded as a five-star recruit, something that he more than proved during his time as a member of the Crimson Tide defense.
At 6’ 1” he has the length to compete at the NFL level—and is able to accelerate well in space. Beyond the obvious physical prowess, he gained a reputation at Alabama for not only being a great leader, but a very active pre-snap communicator, who really led the operations in the secondary.
All things considered, he will still likely be among the top two or three cornerbacks taken in this year’s draft, but sustaining an injury of that magnitude this close to the draft definitely isn’t doing him any favors—and has taken a chunk out of his draft stock.
Rising – Brian Thomas Jr., WR (LSU)
During his time at LSU Brian Thomas Jr. found himself often drawing comparisons to a couple of the other top wide receivers in the country, like Marvin Harrison Jr. and even his own teammate Malik Nabers—but pundits always seemed to favor the latter two.
Now that the combine has come and gone, the physical freak has really started to pick up some momentum. He ran a blistering fast 4.33 40-yard dash, which was second among all wide receivers—and his 10-yard split was dangerously close to that of Xavier Worthy’s – the latest player to set the record for the 40.
It was hard for his stock to go much higher after a great collegiate career, which included a 17-touchdown showing in 2023, but it is looking like Thomas is now presenting a legitimate threat to Harrison Jr. to be the first wide receiver taken off the board.
Falling – Bucky Irving, Running Back (Oregon)
There always seems to be healthy skepticism around skill players coming out of the University of Oregon. It isn’t exactly clear if it is the result of their traditionally high-flying, but not exactly pro-style offensive schemes—or just that they look way fast on the college field running behind massive linemen in their bright green unis.
Irving, however, seemed to be bucking that trend… no pun intended… because despite being undersized, he had that Darren Sproles-like burst and agility. Unfortunately, his chart has started to zag in the opposite direction after he finished with a 22.8% percentile athletic testing for his size, which has sent him plummeting down draft boards.
Rising – Cooper Beebe, OG (Kansas State)
Heading into the 2024 NFL Draft, Cooper Beebe was widely regarded as one of the most versatile offensive line prospects. At 6’ 4” and 335 pounds, the former Kansas State standout was able to play all over the line, making appearances everywhere, but center during his college career.
Scouts were also high on his experience, thinking that it would and should quickly translate to success at the NFL level.
As the draft continues to approach, Beebe’s stock has only climbed higher. He has all of the lateral mobility to keep defensive linemen and enough mass and physicality to compete with the monstrous athletes at the NFL level.
People seemed to love what they’ve seen out of the high-effort player and we may end up seeing him climb into the middle of the first round.
Falling – Ennis Rakestraw Jr., Cornerback (Missouri)
During his time at Missouri, Ennis Rakestraw Jr. established himself as one of the better defensive back prospects in the nation, but his first-round caliber resume is starting to be called into question.
At the combine, Rakestraw ran a 4.54-second 40-yard dash—and at 5’ 11” he doesn’t have the length that most of the top modern corners do.
The cornerback should, however, still be in the equation once the second day of the draft comes around—it is just hard to envision him going much higher than that with the way things have trended of late.
Rising – J.J. McCarthy, QB (Michigan)
Every year—almost without fail—there is a player, usually a quarterback, who starts to skyrocket just ahead of the NFL Draft.
In 2024, it appears that J.J. McCarthy is the chosen one. Scouts loved that he decided to throw at the combine since most of the highly touted quarterback prospects generally decline that option. Even better, McCarthy actually threw the ball really well too, which helps.
Beyond the tangible aspects of McCarthy’s draft perspective, there also seems to be a narrative building around the National Championship-winning quarterback.
Teams love winners and at this point – McCarthy has certainly proven he can do that – so it will be interesting to see where he ends up landing, especially now that his stock has shot up.
Falling – Kamren Kinchens, Safety (Miami)
Kamren Kinchens’ pre-draft process hasn’t quite lived up to his career at the University of Miami. During his Hurricanes career, he finished with 98 tackles, one sack, two forced fumbles, 26 passes defended, and five tackles for a loss—not to mention 11 interceptions, two of which were returned for touchdowns.
That 11 interception total was enough for him to finish 8th all-time in the illustrious school’s history and helped to put him on the radar for the ’24 NFL Draft.
In fact, Kinchens was a top-50 prospect on most big boards heading into the combine, but his weak performance left scouts scratching their heads and putting his stock down.
He ran a 4.65-second 40-yard dash, which was in the 18th percentile for his position group. Not exactly the kind of closing speed you want to see from a safety you are thinking of investing a high draft pick in.
Rising – Bub Means, WR (Pitt)
The case of Bub Means is an interesting one. He started his collegiate career at Tennessee playing cornerback before transferring to Louisiana Tech, then ultimately Pitt where he developed into an impressive wide receiver prospect.
During his last two seasons at Pitt, Means caught 68 passes and turned them into an impressive 1122 yards and eight touchdowns—and looked to really be hitting his stride down the stretch of the 2023 season despite inconsistent quarterback play.
He is still largely believed to be a day 2 pick, but his stock has been rising rapidly, as his high aptitude coupled with his relative inexperience is an exciting premise to NFL teams, who think that he has A LOT of upside.
Mel Kiper spoke highly of him, saying: “I’m intrigued by Means, At the combine, he measured in with huge hands (10 1/8 inches) and long arms (33 ¼ inches), and then he ripped off a 4.43 40-yard dash and 39 ½-inch vertical. I had a round 4 grade on him coming into the week, but I want to go and study the tape. He has tremendous tools, even if he’s still raw developing at the position.”
That sentiment seems to have resonated with a number of teams around the league too—and we may end up seeing the upstart wide receiver getting taken earlier than the aforementioned fourth round.
Falling – Bralen Trice, EDGE (Washington)
It makes sense that Bralen Trice wanted to enter the NFL Draft, as his stock was fairly high after the great season that he and Washington had making it all the way to the National Championship Game against the University of Michigan.
Obviously, the big game didn’t go how they wanted it to, but Trice still decided to try and capitalize on his momentum and declared for the draft.
Unfortunately for Trice, he is entering the draft in a year that is choc-filled with talent at the edge rusher position—and it is one of the more challenging crops of players for him to differentiate himself from.
Then, to make matters worse, he had a rather disappointing showing at the combine. He came in weighing 30 fewer pounds than he did during the season—dropping from 275 to 245, but his 40-yard dash came in at 4.72, which was second worst of his position group. Scouts have definitely started to sour on the former Huskie standout and he’ll need to rely on a team that trusts his tape and thinks he fits their defensive scheme.
