Wanna form a dynasty in the modern NFL? Look no further than the Kansas City Chiefs and the New England Patriots as inspiration — two teams who built long-term winners that led to dynasty status.
Wanna avoid long-term mediocrity? Don’t be okay with just being “okay.” Easy enough, right? Don’t tell that to some of the teams that have forgotten the memo.
So with that all said, let’s dive into five NFL teams whose Super Bowl windows are wide open, and five whose windows have been slammed shut.
Wide Open: Kansas City Chiefs
May as well get the obvious out of the way early…
The Chiefs have the best football player on the planet in Patrick Mahomes, for starters. And the league’s best head coach, none other than Mr. Andy Reid. And the league’s best front office is led by Brett Veach — one that just keeps bringing in new star power to replace whichever marquee players depart for greener pastures.
The Chiefs defeated the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl 58, becoming the first team to win consecutive Lombardi Trophies since the 2003 and ‘04 New England Patriots. With three titles in five years, the Chiefs also cemented themselves as a dynasty.
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Mahomes got it done with a mediocre wide-receiving core that committed too many costly drops, penalties and fumbles during the regular season. Almost nobody gave KC a chance heading into the postseason, yet they muscled their way past the mighty Buffalo Bills, top-seeded Baltimore Ravens and star-studded 49ers to claim football’s ultimate prize.
The Chiefs are loaded on both sides of the ball, but the point is that they’ll always be a Super Bowl contender as long as they have Mahomes and Reid. Look no further than the straight AFC title game appearances, four conference banners and three Lombardi Trophies.
Slammed Shut: Buffalo Bills
How many more chances does this core need to break through? Advancing to the 2020 AFC Championship Game was supposed to serve as the first big step forward for this group — and not as their peak.
Since that 2020 AFC title game loss to Kansas City, the Bills have been eliminated in the Divisional Round three straight years. The 13-second game and Wide Right II especially stand out as evidence that Sean McDermott’s group is, well, full of chokers.
Josh Allen is still in his prime, but Stefon Diggs, Jordan Poyer, Matt Milano, Mitch Morse and Dion Dawkins are all or WILL BE IN their 30s come next season. And All-Pro cornerback Tre’Davious White can’t stay healthy anymore.
Allen is the only bonafide superstar under the age of 30. With limited cap space, the Bills aren’t in a position to add more game-changers to help them get over the top.
The Bills are 0-3 against Mahomes in the playoffs. Joe Burrow has proven to be a way more clutch playoff performer than Allen. The Miami Dolphins, Houston Texans and Cleveland Browns aren’t going away in the AFC, either.
These last three years marked Buffalo’s best chance to bring the franchise its first Super Bowl. The time to win with this group has passed, and the sooner the Bills decide to undergo a massive roster overhaul, the better.
Wide Open: Detroit Lions
In year three of the Dan Campbell-Brad Holmes era, all the Lions did was…
1. Win their first division title in 30 years
2. Win their first playoff game since 1991
3. Reach their first NFC Championship Game since 1991
Make no mistake, the Lions choked big time in the NFC Championship Game against the 49ers when they coughed up a 17-point lead. But if you were to tell Lions fans two years ago that they were this close to the franchise’s first Super Bowl appearance, they’d happily take it.
Consider that the Lions have a QB squarely in his prime in Jared Goff. The Frank Ragnow, Taylor Decker and Penei Sewell-led offensive line is going to remain a menacing group for several more years. Heck, Sewell hasn’t yet hit his peak.
Offensive weapons Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta and Jahmyr Gibbs are just growing into superstars now. Ditto for edge-rusher Aidan Hutchinson, linebacker Jack Campbell and do-it-all defensive back Brian Branch.
You throw all of this all-world talent in with Campbell’s savvy coaching and Holmes’ mastery of evaluating talent, and you have a team that’s built to win aplenty over the next half-decade.
Right now, only the 49ers look more dangerous than the Lions in the NFC. And as we saw this past season, Detroit is more than capable of defeating the superior albeit awfully-vulnerable 49ers.
There are no guarantees in football, but it genuinely only feels like a matter of time until this Lions core brings Motown its first Super Bowl championship. There’s just too much explosive talent across the board for the Lions to NOT eventually break through…
Slammed Shut: Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings overachieved tremendously in 2022 with a 13-win season that ended with a stunning wild-card round loss to the New York Giants. Rather than fix up a shaky o-line and an atrocious defense, the Vikings doubled down with the same core and expected better results in 2024.
Releasing four-time Pro Bowler Dalvin Cook in a cap-saving move was a head-scratcher. Sure enough, the Vikings’ once-elite ground game sunk to one of football’s worst with Alexander Mattison failing to replace Cook’s explosiveness.
And even before Kirk Cousins suffered his season-ending Achilles tear, the Vikings were merely a fringe playoff team at 4-4. The fact they finished 3-6 without Captain Kirk further displayed the Vikings’ need for a full-scale rebuild.
There just aren’t enough difference-makers on this team outside of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and TJ Hockenson.
The Detroit Lions emerged as the new kings of the NFC North in 2023. The Green Bay Packers made the playoffs in year one of the Jordan Love era. The Chicago Bears are about to add Caleb Williams to their young roster loaded with talent.
And the Vikings are…where exactly? Stuck in purgatory as they’ve been with Cousins since 2018. They screwed up by letting Cook go and by refusing to add more playmakers to a mediocre defensive unit. They kept Cousins for way too long when it was clear early on that he wasn’t a big-game performer.
Until they finally commit to a tear-it-all-down rebuild, these Vikings won’t be coming anywhere close to a Super Bowl. Even with the league’s best wide receiver in JJ.
Wide Open: Houston Texans
When you make it to the Divisional Round with a rookie quarterback and a first-year head coach…you know you’re in good hands long-term.
CJ Stroud put together an MVP-caliber year in his first NFL season. DeMeco Ryans reminded plenty of teams how silly they were for not taking him on as their new head coach when they had the chance.
Most Super Bowl contenders have at least four franchise stars to keep them in contention. For the Texans, we count Stroud, wide receiver Nico Collins, edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. and cornerback Derek Stingley Jr.
Then you throw in other guys like Tank Dell, Jalen Pitre, Dameon Pierce and Laremy Tunsil. Now you’ve got a core loaded with star power and depth — two necessities to win in today’s league.
And with mountains of cap space, nobody said GM Nick Caserio couldn’t add more five-star talents to this team during their competitive window.
The bottom line is that with their “core four” and a top-tier head coach, the Texans’ championship window just opened up. Little did we know it was pried open the day Stroud took the field for his NFL debut.
That Deshaun Watson trade sure turned into an all-time win for the Texans, huh?
Slammed Shut: New Orleans Saints
The Saints’ front office has put themself in the worst possible position: Not good enough to compete for a Super Bowl, but not bad enough to tank and collect franchise-changing top-10 draft picks.
Since Drew Brees’ retirement in 2021, the Saints have gone 25-26. Zero playoff appearances in that span. And even with the great Sean Payton stepping down after the 2021 season, the Saints continue to convince themselves that they can win without the legendary QB-head coach tandem.
The foolish structuring of Derek Carr’s contract means the Saints are stuck with Mr. Barely-Above-Average for at least two more years. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting younger. Cameron Jordan and DeMario Davis are in their mid-30s, and superstar corner Marshon Lattimore hasn’t been able to stay healthy.
The Saints may play in football’s worst division, but they are miles behind the top dogs in the NFC like the Lions, 49ers, Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers. Their ceiling remains 10 wins and a playoff berth. And that will not change until/unless ownership signs off on a full-scale rebuild.
Ah well. There will always be 2009.
Wide Open: Baltimore Ravens
We know, we know. Lamar Jackson is 2-and-4 in the postseason and has a bad habit of regressing considerably during the postseason.
But hey, John Elway, Peyton Manning and Matthew Stafford all had to wait a while to break through as Super Bowl champions. So who’s to say Lamar can’t follow a similar path?
As we’ve said many times, the Ravens draft better than anybody else. They will always stockpile difference-makers around Jackson.
Currently speaking: Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews, Tyler Linderbaum, Marlon Humphrey and Kyle Hamilton, just to name a few…
Since John Harbaugh teamed up with Jackson, the Ravens have consistently fielded a top-10 offense and defense. And they only have the best kicker of all time in Justin Tucker, so you know that’s not a problem with big games on the line.
With two MVP awards under his belt, we know what Jackson can do. Their championship window is wide open. No team is better suited to challenge Mahomes and Kansas City over the next half-decade or so than these Ravens.
Slammed Shut: New York Jets
With all due respect to four-time league MVP Aaron Rodgers, something tells us that a 40-year-old coming off a season-ending Achilles tear will not single-handedly save the day for the Jets.
It’s not a knock against Rodgers, but a knock against the annual circus show that transpires in Gotham. What, Rodgers is going to single-handedly fix up the Jets’ atrocious offensive line? Someone other than Garrett Wilson will step up and aid the passing game?
Robert Saleh, he of three straight losing seasons as a head coach, is suddenly going to enter the Andy Reid-John Harbaugh-Sean McDermott stratosphere of elite AFC coaches?
No, no and no would be the answer to those three questions. Not to mention the Jets have to deal with the Dolphins and Bills in the AFC East — not to mention the Chiefs, Ravens, Bengals, Browns and Texas in the AFC.
Rodgers’ arm could get the Jets into the playoffs, but they’re not built to outlast the true heavyweights of the AFC. And because Rodgers is now in his 40s, that puts the Jets on a very short leash to win.
Sorry Jets fans, but a 40-year-old Rodgers isn’t saving the day now.
Wide Open: San Francisco 49ers
Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers are perilously entering ‘90s Bills territory. No they haven’t lost four straight Super Bowls, but they’ve lost two big games and two NFC Championships. Close enough in the modern era.
But like, how much longer can a team as deep and star-studded as the 49ers fall short? Especially with the Lions and MAYBE the Packers serving as the only teams who could realistically challenge them in the NFC long-term.
Brock Purdy is still on a rookie contract. Despite his age, Trent Williams is still the golden standard for offensive linemen. George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey are still in their prime. Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are both top-20 receivers when they’re healthy.
Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, and Talanoa Hufanga are in their mid-20s and still have plenty of prime years left. And veteran defensive tackle Javon Hargrave is aging like a fine wine, so he’s not going anywhere.
And as much hate as Shanahan gets, he’s still a top-five coach in this league. And John Lynch has done a masterful job building this team into a superpower alongside Shanahan, committing far more homeruns than strikeouts when it comes to blockbuster moves.
The 49ers are a few bounces away from having multiple Super Bowl titles in the Shanahan era. They’re clearly capable of competing with Mahomes’ Chiefs.
But if they get to a Super Bowl and don’t have to meet with Kansas City in the big game for once? Then they’ll have a clear-cut path to the franchise’s long-awaited sixth Super Bowl trophy.
An elite GM-head coaching tandem and a star-studded roster loaded with game-changers across the board. Yep, the 49ers’ window remains wide open even.
Slammed Shut: Dallas Cowboys
Three straight 12-win seasons. Three straight MVP-like years from Dak Prescott. Three straight years of finishing with a top-four scoring offense AND a top-seven scoring defense.
The results? ONE playoff win in that period.
The 2023 Cowboys had a clear-cut path to the NFC Championship Game. Win two home games, and they’d be in the final four for the first time since the 1995 season. Of course, they blew that by getting crushed by Jordan Love and the seventh-seeded Packers.
And as Jerry Jones has shown, he only cares about regular season results. That means keeping Mike McCarthy and Dak Prescott forever, meaning this team’s ceiling will always be a Divisional Round appearance.
These Cowboys choke every year. Jones does nothing about it. Rinse and repeat. So who are we to think the Cowboys’ Super Bowl window is still open? It’ll remain slam-shut as long as Jones prioritizes regular-season victories over Super Bowls.
