First impressions matter in every aspect of life. But if you’re an NFL player, making a strong impression as one of the rookies isn’t as important as, say, doing so to your significant other’s parents.
Not every NFL rookie from 2023 was able to experience beginner’s luck. And some of those rookies who did, well, will come to learn that immediate success doesn’t automatically carry over to year two.
With that said, let’s dive into five NFL rookies from 2023 who will bounce back in 2024 and five who will decline.
Which NFL rookies from 2023 are poised to make some noise in the upcoming season?
Bounce Back: Bryce Young
Nothing went right for the first overall pick of 2023 last year.
Bryce Young played behind a horrible offensive line that allowed 62 sacks. 33-year-old Adam Thielen was his only good receiver. Head coach Frank Reich was canned after a 1-10 start, and the team fared no better under interim HC Chris Tabor.
Well, Young gets a fresh start after a nightmare of a rookie year. New head coach Dave Canales, who revived Baker Mayfield’s career in Tampa Bay last season, can only be an upgrade over Reich on offense.
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Despite having limited draft capital to work with, GM Dan Morgan was able to snag three new offensive weapons in South Carolina wideout Xavier Legette, Texas running back Jonathan Brooks, and tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders.
Before the draft, Morgan acquired former 1,000-yard receiver Diontae Johnson in a trade with the Pittsburgh Steelers. He also improved the interior o-line by signing two quality guards, Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis.
An offense with Legette, Brooks, Sanders, Thielen, Johnson, and Chuba Hubbard suddenly looks a lot better compared to last year’s dull unit.
So, a new head coach, a revamped offensive line, and an improved supporting cast for Young. There is nowhere to go but up for the Alabama product, and we fully expect a breakout year after a forgettable rookie season in the NFL.
Decline: Rashee Rice
There are two reasons why Rashee Rice falls on this list: His off-the-field legal issues during the offseason as well as the fact the Chiefs won’t be leaning on him as much after reshaping their receiving corps.
Rice was involved in a six-car accident in Dallas in March. He later turned himself in to police and was hit with eight charges, including six counts of a collision involving bodily injury.
Multiple reports indicate that a suspension is on the way for Rice. Even if he somehow avoids a ban from Roger Goodell, it’s hard to envision him topping last year’s stat line of 79 receptions for 938 yards and seven touchdowns.
The Chiefs signed former 1,000-yard wideout Marquise “Hollywood” Brown to help out Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. Then NFL GM Brett Veach pulled off another coup by trading up for Texas speed-burner Xavier Worthy with the No. 28 pick, and he’s expected to become one of the better rookies in this class.
Kelce will always be Mahomes’ go-to guy, so that means Rice may end up slipping down to Number 15’s No. 3 or 4 option. Either way, Rice is not going to push for 1,000 yards receiving again in year two.
And if he ends up receiving a temporary ban? Rice may quickly become an afterthought in the KC offense.
Bounce Back: Quentin Johnston
Hindsight is 20-20, but many folks kept poking fun at the Los Angeles Charges for drafting Johnston at No. 21 overall ahead of Zay Flowers and Jordan Addison — two stars who went on to dominate with their respective teams.
Even with star wideout Mike Williams missing most of 2023, Johnston was unable to emerge as a key target for Justin Herbert. Johnston caught just 38 passes for 431 yards and two touchdowns.
How bad is that? Josh Palmer, who played seven fewer games than Johnston, had 150 more yards. Austin Ekeler, a running back, also had more catches and receiving yards than Johnston despite missing three games.
Well, this is Johnston’s golden opportunity to bounce back.
The Chargers released Williams and traded Keenan Allen to the Chicago Bears. Ekeler signed with the Washington Commanders in free agency, leaving Justin Herbert three stars short on offense now.
Not to mention that Jim Harbaugh knows better than most how to maximize the talents of his youngsters. Certainly, he can’t do any worse than Brandon Staley…
The Bolts used a second-round pick on Georgia’s Ladd McConkey, but they have zero proven playmaking veterans to help Herbert. So it just feels like everything is opening up for Johnston to step up and emerge as a top-flight star with Williams, Allen, and Ekeler gone.
Consider him in the later rounds of your fantasy drafts because Johnston is poised to put it all together in year two.
Decline: Jayden Reed
The Packers’ rookies played a monumental role in their surprise return to the NFL postseason a year ago, and that included the efforts of rookie wide receiver Jayden Reed.
The No. 50 pick of 2023 hauled in 64 receptions for 793 yards and eight touchdowns. Only fellow NFC North residents Jordan Addison and Sam LaPorta finished with more receiving TDs than Reed among first-year players.
We have no doubt that Reed can join the long list of great Packers receivers who were day-two draft picks. That said, a regression feels inevitable for at least a year here.
Keep in mind that Green Bay’s No. 1 receiver, Christian Watson, was limited to nine games last season due to injury. Rookie tight end Luke Musgrave missed six games as well and should expect a bigger role alongside fellow sophomore TE Tucker Kraft.
Romeo Doubs will also vie for the Packers’ WR2 role behind Watson. And that’s only the passing game we’ve discussed!
Green Bay will also rely heavily on new RB1 Josh Jacobs and veteran AJ Dillon. The former, especially, should command his fair share of targets in the passing game.
Reed can still be a star in Titletown, but there’s only one football for Jordan Love this season. And since he’s loaded with playmakers at all skill positions, it just feels obvious Reed will have a reduced role here in 2024.
Also Read: 10 NFL Rookies In Horrific Situations This Season (2024 EDITION)
Bounce Back: Christian Gonzalez
Bill Belichick’s final first-round pick got off to a promising start, but a torn labrum unfortunately cut his rookie season short after only four game appearances.
The No. 17 pick out of Oregon earned a superb 80.8 grade from Pro Football Focus in those four games, including a coverage grade of 83.4. Gonzalez had one interception and three pass breakups in those games.
The 6-foot-1, 205-pound Gonzalez has the ideal size of speed, athleticism, and football IQ to be the next great shutdown corner in this league. And a defensive-minded head coach like Jerod Mayo promises to maximize the potential of Gonzalez, who was playing like an All-Pro before his season-ending injury.
If Gonzalez can stay healthy, he should cement himself as a top-five corner in the game here as a sophomore. Buy the hype on this kid.
Decline: Byron Young
The Los Angeles Rams hit the jackpot when they selected Young 77th overall last year. His eight sacks were second among all NFL rookies, behind only teammate Kobie Turner and his nine takedowns.
Young’s eight sacks look good on paper, but he only had a 63.5 grade at PFF on the year. Keep in mind that Young was the beneficiary of playing with the now-retired Aaron Donald, who constantly demanded double-teams, which, in turn, opened up opportunities for Young to rack up his individual stats.
And if you’re in the club where “sacks tell the story,” well, good luck to Mr. Young. The Rams drafted two more stud pass rushers in Florida State standouts, Jared Verse and Braden Fiske.
With Turner also well-positioned to build off his strong rookie year, Young is bound to take a step back to the reshaped Rams’ front seven with Donald no longer in the picture.
Bounce Back: Anthony Richardson
Richardson showed signs of future stardom as a rookie, but he was limited to just four game appearances last NFL season because of various injuries. This included a shoulder injury that required season-ending surgery for the No. 4 pick of last year’s draft.
In four games, Richardson threw for 577 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception while racking up four rushing scores. Gardner Minshew II did an admirable job filling in for Richardson the rest of the way, but this Indy offense was much easier for opposing defenses to defend without a dual-threat QB in place.
Well, a healthy Richardson should take that next step forward in 2024. Not only will additional experience be his friend, but A-Rich has FOUR potential 1,000-yard offensive weapons to work with here with Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, and NFL rookie Adonai Mitchell.
The Colts’ stellar offensive line and improved defense will also make things easier for Richardson in year two. As long as he’s healthy, the Florida product should emerge as the new franchise QB in Indy.
Decline: Jordan Addison
Among all NFL rookies, only Puka Nacua and Rashee Rice topped Addison’s 911 receiving yards last year. As previously mentioned, Addison’s ten receiving TDs were tied with Sam LaPorta for tops among first-year players.
But there are two important notes to consider. One, Addison was able to produce more since superstar wideout Justin Jefferson missed 10 games. And secondly, Addison was able to work with four-time Pro Bowler Kirk Cousins for eight games before the latter suffered a season-ending Achilles tear.
If Jefferson stays healthy in 2024, then Addison can expect a major drop-off in production. That’s just how it is when you play with the league’s best receiver, to say nothing of superstar tight end TJ Hockenson — who’s coming off a career year.
Oh, and the quarterback thing.
Cousins left for Atlanta. That means the Vikings will either turn to Sam Darnold — hardly inspiring, we know, or unproven rookie JJ McCarthy. And seeing how McCarthy was mostly a game manager at Michigan, it’s unfair to expect the Vikings to make him throw 30-plus times a game as an NFL rookie.
Jefferson’s health and the murky QB situation mean Addison is poised to take a step back in year two. But if McCarthy proves to be the guy at QB down the stretch, Addison and JJ could emerge as the next great NFL receiving duo.
Bounce Back: Tyree Wilson
Wilson filled a major need for the Raiders when they took him seventh overall last year, but to say his rookie year left a lot to be desired would be a giant understatement.
Wilson finished with a lousy Pro Football Focus grade of 47.1, and he tallied only 3.5 sacks and two tackles for loss. THEN, AGAIN, not every stud edge-rusher can be great in year one. I mean, JJ Watt, TJ Watt, and Cameron Jordan didn’t light it up as NFL rookies, either.
Also, keep in mind that Wilson only played 44 percent of the Raiders’ defensive snaps last season. His play also improved after Antonio Pierce replaced Josh McDaniels mid-season, with Wilson tallying 2.5 sacks after the coaching change.
So improvement is inevitable for Wilson with a full NFL season under his belt and with a more qualified head coach in Pierce leading the way. Also, Wilson and Maxx Crosby will generate plenty more favorable 1-on-1 matchups following the free agent signing of ex-Miami Dolphins superstar defensive tackle Christian Wilkins.
Wilson was quiet in year one, but everything points to a monster sophomore season for the Texas Tech product.
Decline: Bijan Robinson
This isn’t a bad thing for Falcons fans. The fact is, if Robinson takes a step back in production, Kirk Cousins will have lived up to year one of the $180 million contract he signed in free agency.
The No. 8 pick of the 2023 draft was great for fantasy football users, racking up 976 rushing yards, 1,463 yards of offense, and eight total touchdowns. But you can’t possibly expect Robinson to produce that stat line again now that the Falcons have a QB.
Then-Falcons head coach Arthur Smith knew he was handcuffed at QB with Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke, which is why Atlanta ran the ball more than any other team not named the Baltimore Ravens or Chicago Bears.
Atlanta did not pay Cousins $100 million guaranteed to hand the ball off to Robinson. He paid Cousins to fix this team’s issues at quarterback, and that means getting the ball out to Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and newcomer Darnell Mooney. Pitts especially has to get going here with a Pro Bowl quarterback, who is finally feeding him the football.
Plus, Atlanta will wanna give its fair share of touches to former 1,000-yard back Tyler Allgeier who still managed 876 yards of offense and five touchdowns playing second-fiddle to Robinson.
Like Jayden Reed in Green Bay, Robinson is just one of many stud playmakers on an offense loaded with weapons. Everybody gets a slice of the pie, but Robinson’s piece will be smaller since Atlanta is set to transition to a more pass-heavy offense with Cousins.
Also Read: Shocking List Reveals All The NFL Rookies With “Criminal History” Who Are Getting A Second Chance
