The Dallas Cowboys haven’t celebrated a Super Bowl championship since the 1995 season.
Every year, Cowboys Nation says it is their year. Jerry Jones hypes up his team as an unstoppable juggernaut like the Kansas City Chiefs…which they aren’t. Dallas has choked annually in the 21st century, but are they bound to experience good fortune after years of misery? There is some evidence to support both sides.
Here are five reasons why the Dallas Cowboys could win a Super Bowl in the next five years and five reasons why they WON’T.
What are the reasons why the Dallas Cowboys will make it to the top, and what are the ones that will contribute to their downfall?
Will Win: Defense Wins Championships
Make no mistake: you almost always need a superstar quarterback to win in today’s NFL. And good luck getting by with a mediocre offense.
But it’s also true that you need a good defense to win. As much love as Patrick Mahomes gets, he wouldn’t have three Super Bowl rings without all that support from Steve Spagnuolo’s lights-out defense. Tom Brady had a top-10 D for all of his seven Super Bowl-winning seasons, too.
So, hate on the Dallas Cowboys all you want, but they’ve fielded one of the best defenses in football since 2021. And it all starts with superstar linebacker Micah Parsons, who’s making a compelling case as the best defensive player in the game right now.
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Trevon Diggs is an All-Pro corner who makes up for his struggles in coverage with all-world ball-hawking skills. With Diggs missing most of 2023, DaRon Bland stepped up and emerged as a First-Team All-Pro, leading the NFL with nine interceptions and five pick-sixes — a single-season record.
The safety duo of Malik Hooker and Donovan Wilson is a stellar last line of defense in front of the Diggs-Bland tandem at the corner. DeMarcus Lawrence and Sam Williams add ample pass-rushing depth to support Parsons, too.
Criticize Dak Prescott and the offense all you want. But defense wins championships, and Dallas has it.
Won’t Win: Dak Is A Playoff Choker
It’s hard to trust that a team can win a Super Bowl when their quarterback consistently crumbles under pressure. Truth be told, Dak is no different than his predecessor, Tony Romo — a regular season stats machine who fails to up his game come January.
Prescott’s two playoff wins game against a “meh” 10-win Seattle Seahawks team in 2018 and against an 8-and-9 Tampa Bay Buccaneers squad in 2022. He is 2-and-5 in the postseason, with three of those losses coming at home as a favorite.
In the regular season, Prescott has 202 touchdowns and 74 picks with a 99.0 QB rating. In the playoffs, he has 14 touchdowns, seven picks, and a 91.8 QB rating. The latter is a stellar number, but it still drops considerably from his regular season performance.
Sure, Peyton Manning didn’t win his first Super Bowl until his 9th season. John Elway had to wait until his final two seasons to secure his pair of championship rings. But while those guys still had some big-time playoff moments and kept falling just short, Prescott has yet to prove that he can shine on the grand stage.
That’s the main reason we can’t pick Dallas to win a Super Bowl in the next five years—not until Prescott actually shows he can ice up in January.
Will Win: Jerry Jones Has Built A Sustainable Contender
It’s safe to say that most Dallas Cowboys fans wish Jerry Jones would sell the team OR at least give up his GM duties. But credit where it’s due: He’s one of the best at the draft table.
For the better part of the past two decades, the Cowboys have never been terrible. Since 2005, they have only had losing seasons in 2010, 2015, and 2020. And that’s because their starting QB, Romo or Prescott, missed the majority of the year with injuries.
Dallas has recorded three straight 12-win seasons. From Prescott to Parsons to Diggs to Bland to CeeDee Lamb to Ezekiel Elliott to Zack Martin to Tyler Smith to Jake Ferguson, Jerry just knows how to hit on his draft picks.
The trade for Amari Cooper in 2018 got a lot of hate at the time, but Jerry clearly knew what he was doing. Deals for Brandin Cooks and Stephon Gilmore in 2023 also served as reminders that Jones knows how to fleece his rivals in trades.
The bottom line is that Dallas is always in the mix, and it’s because of Jones’ quality roster construction. So, with this much star power and depth, you can argue that it’s only a matter of time until the bounces go Dallas’ way and culminate in a Super Bowl.
With the Dallas Cowboys churning out double-digit wins on a near-annual basis, they’re going to have a shot at a title. It’s now just about breaking through those postseason nerves and inner doubts they haven’t overcome yet.
Won’t Win: Jerry Never Has The Right Coach
You can have all the roster talent in the world, but it doesn’t matter if you don’t have competent head coaching.
The Philip Rivers-LaDainian Tomlinson-led San Diego Chargers were held back by Norv Turner’s inept coaching. The Los Angeles Rams were stuck in no man’s land with Jeff Fisher until Norv Turner came along. The great Peyton Manning didn’t break through until future Hall of Famer Tony Dungy arrived. You get the point by now.
Jerry was committed to Jason Garrett for ten freaking seasons as his head coach. Just incredible! A decade at the helm with only two playoff wins — not to mention it took Garrett YEAR FIVE to win his first playoff game.
Well, Jones is repeating the same mistake here with Mike McCarthy. Four years in, three 12-win seasons, and a whopping single playoff win. Again, against the 8-win Buccaneers. Wow!
The last straw for McCarthy should have been when Dallas was crushed by the Packers on Wild Card Weekend. But because Jerry likes his coach on a personal level, McCarthy gets a fifth year on the job.
Think about it. Jerry didn’t want Jim Harbaugh or Bill Belichick — the greatest coach of all time. Pete Carroll and Mike Vrabel were also available for crying out loud!
Does Jerry forget that McCarthy also ruined much of Aaron Rodgers’ prime in Green Bay by getting outsmarted in the postseason time and time again?
Don’t tell the Dallas owner that. He’s just costing himself a Super Bowl by staying loyal to coaches who clearly don’t have the ability to get his team over the top.
Will Win: Dominating In The Trenches
A rock-solid offensive line and pass-rush are also two key ingredients in building a championship team. Fortunately for Dallas Cowboys fans, Jones has aced the goals of building imposing units in the trenches.
Their o-line is basically a top-five unit on an annual basis. Future Hall of Famer Zack Martin has displayed zero signs of slowing down, while 2022 first-round pick Tyler Smith has quickly morphed into one of the league’s top offensive tackles.
And if 2024 first-round pick Tyler Guyton comes as advertised, it might not be long until Dallas boasts the best OT duo in football.
The make-up of the Cowboys’ o-line means they get a 1,000-yard rusher every year. And if Prescott is to get over the hump in the playoffs, having elite pass protection will go a long way in achieving that goal.
And while Parsons is a one-man wrecking crew in the front seven, Lawrence, Williams, and Osa Odighizuwa have also formed a dominant trio in the trenches. With sufficient depth on the defensive line, Dallas can easily win with a “bully ball” style and wear down their opponents in the big games.
If 2023 first-rounder Mazi Smith and 2024 second-round pick Marshawn Kneeland hit their ceilings as well, there’s no telling how much more dangerous this defense can become.
You still need to win in the trenches — on both sides of the ball — to field a Super Bowl contender. And that’s one box the Cowboys can comfortably check off from their list.
Won’t Win: Dak Doesn’t Have Enough Weapons
The 2021 Dallas Cowboys were an absolute dream for Prescott as far as weapons went. Running backs Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard both hit over 1,000 yards of offense, for starters.
CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, and Dalton Schultz all went over 800 yards receiving, with Cedrick Wilson Jr. chipping in 602 receiving yards of his own. Dallas finished with the league’s top-scoring offense that year, but the salary cap meant that the band had to quickly break up.
Jones traded Cooper to Cleveland and watched Wilson leave for Miami. After the 2022 season, Schultz left to sign with the Houston Texans. Zeke was cut in a cap-saving move, only to be brought back a year later after Dallas lost RB1 Tony Pollard to the Tennessee Titans in free agency.
Though Prescott had a career year in 2023, he lack of quality playmakers outside of Lamb was evident in the playoff loss to Green Bay…as well as the Divisional Round loss to the San Francisco 49ers a year earlier.
Brandin Cooks is better off as a No. 3 receiver at this phase of his career. Prescott just too oftentimes looks lost when Lamb is covered up, like the way Josh Allen was with Stefon Diggs.
The salary cap means bringing in more weapons for Dak is easier said than done, too. Prescott, Lamb and Parsons will eat up significant cap space on their new deals, making it awfully difficult for the ‘Boys to load up on playmakers for their QB like the 49ers, Kansas City Chiefs or Baltimore Ravens with their star signal-callers.
Will Win: The Young Core
Prescott isn’t exactly a young man at the age of 31…but that’s also not ancient for a QB. I mean, Tom Brady won his seventh ring at age 43…
But another thing going for Dallas is the fact that most of their core is young and only in the early stages of their primes.
Parsons, Lamb, Ferguson, and Bland are only entering their age-25 seasons here in 2024. Tyler Smith is only 23 years of age. Diggs will be 26 by season’s end. And again, just think of Tyler Guyton, Mazi Smith, and Marshawn Kneeland, who can also grow into quality contributors…
Even if Dallas were to move on from Prescott down the road, the rest of the core is still young enough to keep this competitive window open long-term. And that obviously means more kicks at the can.
And maybe, just maybe, it culminates in that long-awaited sixth Super Bowl.
Won’t Win: The 49ers Roadblock
It took Peyton Manning forever to get by the New England Patriots’ roadblock. Cam Newton could never solve the Seattle Seahawks’ Legion of Boom. And so far, Josh Allen hasn’t been able to break through the Kansas City Chiefs’ postseason roadblock.
Prescott finds himself in a similar pickle: There’s that one rival team that’s always in the way of his path.
Prescott faced the 49ers in the 2021 Wild Card and 2022 Divisional Rounds. He had two touchdowns and three interceptions and averaged less than six yards per pass attempt in each of those games.
When Dallas faced San Francisco in Week 5 of the 2023 season? Prescott was only 14-of-24 for 153 yards, a touchdown, and three interceptions in a humiliating 42-10 defeat on national television.
So unless Prescott can somehow solve these 49ers, there’s no realistic path to a Dallas Cowboys Super Bowl. And unfortunately for No. 4, these star-studded and well-coached 49ers aren’t going away any time soon.
Will Win: The NFC Is (Mostly) Wide Open
If the Cowboys could just get past the 49ers or somehow avoid them in the playoffs altogether? The path to a Super Bowl is a lot easier compared to the AFC.
Yes, the Philadelphia Eagles are a force. But Dak is also 9-and-4 against them in his career, with a 100.6 rating and 24 touchdowns against only eight interceptions. Philly might be the better team on paper, but this isn’t an unstoppable juggernaut that Dak wouldn’t be able to deal with in the postseason.
The Detroit Lions are also scary, but Dak is a crisp 5-and-0 against them. And if Dan Campbell continues to outsmart himself in big games like he did at Dallas and in the NFC title game last year, the Cowboys might not even have to bring their A-Game to beat Detroit in the playoffs.
Nobody in the NFC South should seriously scare the Dallas Cowboys. The Los Angeles Rams are a bit problematic, but they lost Aaron Donald — and Cooper Kupp and Matt Stafford aren’t getting any younger.
The AFC is loaded with Super Bowl contenders — headlined by the Chiefs. But even the 49ers haven’t exactly been that clutch in the postseason. Maybe Dallas gets to avoid the San Fran roadblock during a playoff run — clearing the path to a Super Bowl title. Hmm..
Won’t Win: Jerry Jones
I mean, it’s kind of obvious.
Jones hasn’t won a Super Bowl in almost 30 years now because of his ego. He basically fired an all-time great coach Jimmy Johnson simply because he didn’t like JJ getting more credit than him.
But he kept Jason Garrett around forever because he’s a nice guy. He keeps Mike McCarthy around for half a decade and counting because he doesn’t challenge Jerry and his hands-on approach.
Jones won’t relinquish GM duties to someone more qualified. He’ll just keep committing to a guy like Dak, who has never won it all, promise changes, then run it back with the exact same group.
Jones said after the 2023 season, his team would be “all in.” There wasn’t one “all in” move made. Jerry can talk all he wants about a Super Bowl, but his ego and stubbornness have kept this team deprived of a Lombardi Trophy for 29 years. Why will he change now?
As they say, you can’t teach an old dog new tricks.
