Now that the 2023 season is in the books, it’s the ideal time to reflect on which highly-touted rookies failed in year one — and which ones passed the test with flying colors.
So with that, let’s dive into five players from the 2023 NFL Draft that already look like busts after just one year and five that look destined to enjoy super-stardom.
Bust: Bryce Young
Let us emphasize that Young has plenty of time to shred the “bust” label. Remember, John Elway, Peyton Manning and even more recently Trevor Lawrence didn’t exactly shine as rookies.
But we’ll also say this: If the Carolina Panthers had a mulligan, they would not have taken the Alabama QB with the first overall pick.
The front office sold the farm to the Chicago Bears so they could move up and take Young with the first overall pick.
While second-overall pick C.J. Stroud put together an MVP-like year for the Houston Texans, Young somehow made Carolina’s quarterback problems worse than what we saw in the Matt Rhule era.
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Young completed only 59.8 percent of pass attempts for 2,877 yards, 11 touchdowns and two interceptions, losing 14 of his 16 starts.
And let’s not forget that backup Andy Dalton had a superb outing in place of an injured Young in Week 3 – with 361 yards and two touchdowns against the Seattle Seahawks. So you can’t really blame Young’s supporting cast. If Dalton could make it work for one day, so could Young.
And to make matters worse, the Panthers finished as football’s worst team in 2023 with a 2-and-15 record. That gave the Bears first dibs on Caleb Williams — a QB with more upside than Young.
Ouch. To think Carolina could have either a) taken Stroud or b) kept all their picks and tank for Caleb this year. Better hope that Young can figure it out in year two, huh?
Superstar: C.J. Stroud
Say it loud and proud, Texans fans: His name is C.J. Stroud.
2023 was supposed to be a year of growing pains for the rookie signal-caller out of Ohio State. Yet all Stroud did was lead the Texans to a surprise AFC South division crown, having thrown for 4,108 yards, 23 touchdowns and only five interceptions.
Stroud set two ridiculous records in year one, too: Most pass attempts without an interception to begin a career with 191, and most passing yards in a game by a rookie signal-caller with 470.
The magic carried over to the postseason, where Stroud led the Texans to a blowout win over the Cleveland Browns. They ultimately bowed out to the Baltimore Ravens in the Divisional Round, but not before Stroud and rookie head coach DeMeco Ryans quickly turned this dysfunctional franchise back into a juggernaut.
Houston won a grand total of 11 games combined from 2020 to 2023. The Texans alone won that many games in 2023 — including the postseason.
Quite frankly, the long-term outlook has never been so bright for football’s youngest team. Expect Stroud and the Texans to make the jump to Super Bowl contender in 2024.
And no, it’s not crazy to think that a Super Bowl parade in downtown Houston is on the schedule at some point over the next five years…
Bust: Quentin Johnston
The Los Angeles Chargers’ decision to use the No. 21 pick on TCU wideout Quentin Johnston was rather interesting, considering that they already had two elite wideouts in Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. Not to mention do-it-all running back Austin Ekeler…
After Johnston went to the Chargers, the Baltimore Ravens used the No. 22 pick on Boston College wideout Zay Flowers. And then with the No. 23 selection, the Minnesota Vikings took USC’s Jordan Addison.
Flowers and Addison both hit the 70-catch mark and each surpassed 800 yards receiving.
Addison’s 10 receiving touchdowns were tied with Sam LaPorta of the Detroit Lions for most among rookies, too. Flowers’ breakout year was instrumental in Lamar Jackson winning his second MVP award.
…And then there’s Johnston.
Even with Allen and Williams combining to play just 16 games, Johnston wasn’t able to step in and develop into much of a playmaker for Justin Herbert. Johnston only caught 38 receptions for 431 yards and two touchdowns.
Johnston’s disappointing rookie year was just one of several things that went wrong for the Bolts in 2023. After losing nine of their first 14 games, head coach Brandon Staley and GM Tom Telesco were fired.
Can new head coach Jim Harbaugh unlock Johnston’s potential and shed that bust label once and for all? Stay tuned…
Superstar: Ronnie Hickman Jr.
Hickman Jr. did not get enough recognition for his contributions to the Cleveland Browns’ suffocating defense in 2023.
Such is life when you play on the same unit as Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett and other marquee talents like Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Za’Darius Smith, Martin Emerson and Denzel Ward, we suppose…
The Ohio State product signed with Cleveland as an undrafted free agent, but even Browns coaches couldn’t have possibly expected him to perform like a veteran All-Pro in year one.
That’s exactly what Hickman Jr. did, however. Though he suited up for just 10 games and only made four starts, Hickman Jr. performed like a superstar the moment he took the field.
He had one interception and three pass defenses. Per Pro Football Reference, Hickman Jr. only allowed five completions in coverage all season – and only a 44.9 passer rating when targeted.
Not impressed enough? Pro Football Focus graded Hickman as the fourth-best rookie of the regular season at 86.6. So there you have it.
To think that Hickman will be a starter in 2024 with Ward and Emerson helping him patrol the secondary. If you thought Cleveland’s defense was scary in 2023, we can only say this: You ain’t seen nothing yet.
Bust: Mazi Smith
The Mazi Smith pick was one of the more surprising selections of the 2023 NFL Draft. The Dallas Cowboys had enough talent in the front seven, and Smith was a considerable reach there by Jerry Jones and company.
Smith only saw 28 percent of the Cowboys’ defensive snaps in 2023. He tallied one sack and had 13 combined tackles in 17 game appearances.
PFF graded Smith at 49.8 on the season — clear-cut evidence that he simply did more harm than good on the field. Not only that, but they had him down for a woeful 34.9 run-defense grade in 2023.
To think the Cowboys could have taken a future star and subsequent round-two picks like Joey Porter Jr., Sam LaPorta or Brian Branch instead. Historically speaking, Jerry almost always aces his first-round draft picks — but Smith’s lackluster rookie year has us worried that this will be a rare day one miss by America’s team.
The good news for Smith? Nowhere to go but up.
Superstar: Jahmyr Gibbs
Perhaps no 2023 draft selection was more highly scrutinized than the Gibbs pick.
Even though they had just signed 1,000-yard rusher David Montgomery in free agency, the Lions decided to use the No. 12 pick on Alabama running back Jahmyr Gibbs. Even if the Lions hadn’t signed Montgomery, taking a running back that early was simply a mind-numbing mistake.
OR so we all thought.
All Gibbs did as a rookie was rack up 945 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns in 15 games. If he didn’t miss time, Gibbs and Montgomery would have become the eighth 1,000-yard rushing duo in NFL history.
Gibbs finished with 1,261 yards of offense and 11 total touchdowns. He helped the Lions to their first division title in 30 years, as well as the franchise’s first playoff victory since the 1991 season.
Gibbs’ efforts helped the Lions to a trip to the NFC Championship Game — also their first appearance there since 1991. They dropped a heartbreaker to the San Francisco 49ers, but not before accomplishing the franchise’s most successful season in the Super Bowl era.
In three playoff games, Gibbs had 238 yards of offense and three touchdowns. With an expanded role coming his way in 2024, Gibbs just might cement himself as a top-five running back in football.
Bust: Bryan Bresee
The New Orleans Saints’ obsession with reaching for defensive linemen in the opening round is…something. Marcus Davenport in 2018, Payton Turner in 2021 and then Bryan Bresee in 2023. The trifecta is complete!
Taking Bresee was a bit of a head-scratcher given the strong depth of the Saints’ defensive line. And sure enough, a team in win-now mode added more confusion to this pick by only using Bresee as a rotational piece.
Though he appeared in all 17 games, Bresee didn’t start any contests and saw 49 percent of the Saints’ defensive snaps. He did tally 4.5 sacks and six pass defenses, but this is a classic case of sacks not telling the whole story.
PFF graded Bresee at a disappointing 45.5 on the year. His run-defense was practically non-existent, as New Orleans’ usually stingy defense allowed an alarming 119.9 rushing yards per contest.
Like the Mazi Smith pick for Dallas, we’re extra critical of the Bresee selection because this was not a position of need for New Orleans. We’ll see if Dennis Allen and the company can somehow unlock the Clemson product’s potential in 2024…
Superstar: Devon Witherspoon
The Seattle Seahawks got the No. 5 pick courtesy of the Denver Broncos in the Russell Wilson trade, and they sure made the very most of it!
The Seahawks were among the bigger disappointments here in 2023, but Witherspoon single-handedly gave the Seattle faithful a lot to look forward to over the long run. A secondary headlined by Witherspoon, Riq Woolen and Coby Bryant? Sign us up!
Witherspoon was a beast in coverage for the Seahawks, racking up 16 pass defenses to go along with one interception, one forced fumble and three sacks.
Witherspoon finished his rookie year as PFF’s fourth-highest-graded cornerback. As well, Witherspoon and Tampa Bay Buccaneers star safety Antoine Winfield Jr. were PFF’s only two defensive backs that were graded at 79.0 or better in coverage, pass rush and run defense.
Bust: Tyree Wilson
Many projected Wilson to be a top-five pick, so it felt like a minor steal for the Las Vegas Raiders when they got the Texas Tech defensive end at No. 7 overall. But Wilson was anything but a “steal” for the Raiders…at least in year one.
Wilson appeared in all 17 games but wasn’t a designated starter for any of them. He had 3.5 sacks, one forced fumble and 29 combined tackles. In all, Wilson saw 44 percent of the Raiders’ defensive snaps in 2023.
PFF had Wilson down for a brutal 47.1 grade on the year — more proof that he was mostly a liability when on the field. To Wilson’s credit, his play began to improve in the final stretch under Antonio Pierce, who replaced Josh McDaniels as the head coach mid-way through the season.
Wilson has plenty of time to turn it around and morph into a superstar in Sin City, but this was not what Vegas expected in year one. They sorely need Wilson to grow into the game-wrecking pass-rusher he’s capable of because that would make him and Maxx Crosby a downright terrifying tandem.
Superstar: Puka Nacua
Raise your hand if you had the Rams’ fifth-round pick — 177th overall — crafting the best year among his 2023 draft class companions.
None of you? Exactly.
The Rams’ No. 177 pick was actually one of four compensatory picks the league awarded them for 2023 to make up for their 2022 free-agent departures of Von Miller, Sebastian Joseph-Day, Darious Williams and Ogbo Okoronkwo.
Lo and behold, the BYU product emerged as the Rams’ new No. 1 receiver — taking the crown from former Super Bowl MVP Cooper Kupp.
Nacua led all rookies with 105 receptions and 1,486 receiving yards — both new single-season records for a rookie. On top of that, only five rookies topped Nacua’s receiving TDs total of six.
Nacua helped the Rams to a 10-win season and playoff appearance, where they narrowly fell to the Detroit Lions on Super Wild Card Weekend. For good measure, Nacua had 181 receiving yards and a TD in his season finale.
It’s not too early to say that Nacua will go down as the greatest steal of the 2023 NFL Draft class. An absolute gem of a find by Sean McVay and company.
