With free agency in go-mode, and the combine behind us, the NFL off-season is well underway. Teams are already setting up for the season and have their eyes on the prize, the Vince Lombardi Trophy. Some teams have already made moves to win, and some are struggling to stay in the same place they were last year. Here’s a list of those on the come-up, and those on the come-down.
Will Contend: New York Jets
The Jets haven’t made any real moves yet besides re-signing safety Chuck Clark and kicker Greg Zuerlein, as well as adding former first-round pick Javon Kinlaw for the defensive line. They’ve also signed Tyrod Taylor to back-up at QB and brought some other veterans around the team. However, the Jets’ contending is not dependent on their free agents or even their draft, it’s dependent on one man. Aaron Rodgers.
If Rodgers can come back healthy, combined with skill players like Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson and that vaunted defense, the Jets will certainly be looking at the playoffs, if not a deep run into them. Of course, they’ll have to beef up the O-Line to keep the 40-year-old Rodgers on the field, but if they can do that, then the Jets should have a great year.
Will Fall Off: Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals missed the playoffs last year, mostly thanks to Joe Burrow struggling with injury throughout the season. However, now they’ve gotten rid of their former Pro Bowl running back Joe Mixon in a trade with Houston. Mixon never had fewer than 1,250 total yards in seasons where he got 13 or more starts. Mixon has been replaced with Zach Moss, who showed quality at Indianapolis in Jonathan Taylor’s absence last season, but is a mostly unproven player. If he can’t match Mixon’s production, then the Bengals offense will suffer.
The Bengals vaunted wide receiver core is also in question. Tyler Boyd, arguably the best WR3 in the NFL, is now a free agent, and Tee Higgins is pushing for a trade out of Cincinnati. The Bengals offense looks to be totally upended by the season’s start. Without replacements, the Bengals could be in for an even worse year than 2023.
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Will Contend: Kansas City Chiefs
This is a fairly easy pick. As long as Mahomes, Kelce and Chris Jones are in town and Andy Reid is the head coach, it’s hard to imagine they don’t compete. So far in free agency the Chiefs extended Chris Jones on a $95MM deal, franchise tagged L’Jarius Sneed and brought in Irv Smith Jr. to back up the TE position. They also secured some depth pieces from last year on new contracts. Keeping Chris Jones was key to the Chiefs’ success, and now adding any additional offensive skill players via the draft or free agency will make the team even better.
Will Fall Off: Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins have a ton of key players hitting the free agency market. Essentially their entire offensive line will need new contracts, and with an already battered QB, this is a huge problem. They added Aaron Brewer at center, but still have a ton of O-Line issues. Then there’s breakout D-Lineman Christian Wilkins who has gone to the Raiders on a $110MM deal. The offensive and defensive lines are looking at big downgrades, and football is won in the trenches. The Dolphins will struggle to get back to the playoffs next year, especially with the Jets posing two much more difficult games than they did in years previous.
Will Contend: Indianapolis Colts
The Colts lost their first-round QB Anthony Richardson to injury last year but still finished just one game shy of the playoffs. With a similar team around him, including newly extended Michael Pittman Jr., the Colts should be in a fine place roster-wise. With Richardson under center all year long they can make a playoff push yet again, and hopefully even get into some serious January football this time around.
Will Fall Off: Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings were 7-10 last year after losing Kirk Cousins to injury. Now the Vikings have lost Kirk Cousins to free agency, where he signed with the Falcons. With the signing of Jonathan Greenard, it looks like they’re letting Danielle Hunter, their premiere pass rusher, walk as well. The team appears to be entering a rebuilding phase with no solid QB and their best defensive player out the door. 7-10 is not even likely with the current roster.
Will Contend: Pittsburgh Steelers
Steelers Country, let’s smelt! Or something like that. The Steelers have acquired Russel Wilson on a $1.2MM deal after being cut by the Broncos. This is a far cry from his massive payday in Denver, but don’t worry about Russ’ bank account, Denver will still have to pay him about $37MM. With a new QB, the Steelers have life. While Wilson did not have a great time in Denver, we think he’s still got something in the tank to show the Steel City. Pittsburgh also added Patrick Queen to bring about arguably the best LB core in the NFL. While the Steelers snuck into the playoffs again last year, Wilson should have them in an even better position for 2024.
Will Fall Off: Buffalo Bills
The Bills have a cap disaster. They need desperate restructurings to fix some of these issues and have already shed quality players like safety Jordan Poyer, corners Tre’Davious White and Ciran Neal, as well as center Mitch Morse to save cap room. It will be extremely difficult to replace these players with limited funds, even though the Bills expect to have ten draft picks after compensatory picks are set. Worse, Gabe Davis is gone to the Jags in free agency and Leonard Floyd to the 49ers. When you lose starters, the team will suffer. While the Bills may not fall out of playoff contention, they’ll certainly have to battle harder to get there this time around.
Will Contend: San Francisco 49ers
The Niners come off another sickening loss to the Chiefs in the Superbowl but should be in a position to get right back to a deep playoff run. Aiyuk is the main free agency concern, but adding Leonard Floyd and Yetur Gross-Matos means that the pass rush is sure up nicely. As long as Mr. Irrelevant, Brock Purdy, keeps playing like he has, and Christian McCaffery continues to be able to stay on the field, the 49ers are in a great position to repeat last year.
Will Fall Off: Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks have moved on from Pete Carroll and now have the youngest head coach in the league in 36-year-old Mike Macdonald. Moving away from a legendary head coach is not always easy, and with concerns about the QB room and having lost their entire starting LB core including six-time All-Pro Bobby Wagner, the Hawks are in a bit of a pickle. 9-8 was not enough for the playoffs last year, but the Seahawks may be lucky to even get near a winning record this season.
