Ever since the 2020 NFL season, 14 of the 32 teams in the league make the playoffs: 7 from each conference. Making the playoffs means you get a clean slate, and every game is do-or-die. Every team that makes the playoffs thinks they really have a chance to win the Super Bowl, but for most teams it is unlikely.
We have a big enough sample size now, being over halfway through the NFL season, to tell which teams have a realistic shot at a Super Bowl run; and those who don’t. Do you think your team has a chance at a deep playoff run? How about you scroll down and find out:
CONTENDER: Kansas City Chiefs
It’s the boring choice, but the Chiefs will always be serious contenders simply because Patrick Mahomes is THAT good.
They haven’t been excellent this season, they lost in Week 1 to a good Lions team (which I will talk about later) and in Week 8 to the middling Broncos. They also have a gaping hole at the Wide Receiver position, which they partially addressed when they traded back for former WR Mecole Hardman.
But again, Mahomes is Mahomes and he still is throwing to the best TE in the league in Travis Kelce. KC has also built a real, fearsome defense that is young and can fly all around the field. Despite some struggles, the Chiefs will be just fine.
PRETENDER: Buffalo Bills
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The Bills are one of the weirdest teams this season, and It’s hard to predict how the rest of their season will play out.
They lost in Week 1 to the Zach Wilson-led Jets, and in Week 7 when Mac Jones a leash of about 6 inches and there were rumors of Bill Belichick (arguably the greatest coach in the history of the NFL) being fired. Honorable mention, they scored 14 points against the lowly NY Giants; thankfully their defense pulled through and only gave up 9 points.
But they’ve beaten the division leading Miami Dolphins by 28 points and in their 5 wins they have an average margin of victory of over 20 points.
They have racked up injuries in key spots this season to Tre’Davious White and Matt Milano, just to name a few, and have been wildly inconsistent.
It could happen, but I don’t think this year is their year.
CONTENDER: Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles currently boast the best record in the entire NFL and lead the NFC East by 2 games over Dallas.
They have, arguably, the best defense in the entire league and a D-Line that has feasted the whole season. Eagles GM Howie Roseman has built a defensive powerhouse, especially when they drafted DL Jalen Carter this offseason.
Jalen Hurts has been a bit up-and-down this year, but WR AJ Brown has looked like a OPOTY candidate and looks phenomenal.
The NFC is objectively the weaker conference of the two, and Philly has benefitted from that, but they still look dominant regardless.
Hard to imagine a world where they aren’t at least in the NFC Championship game.
PRETENDER: Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys have a lot of the same characteristics of the team I just mentioned, the Philadelphia Eagles.
They both have a defense that is Top 5 in the NFL, adequate weapons on offense, and an O-Line that is top notch.
The difference? One has a QB I trust, the other doesn’t.
I’ll probably get crushed for saying that, considering Dallas is surging and Dak Prescott has been playing well. But I just don’t know if Dak can outduel another QB in the playoffs if he’s asked to.
Could he? Well, in theory, sure he could. But Dak has played significantly better when he is asked to do less and rely on the players around him.
I’m not sure if he can consistently win big time games where he is asked to step up.
CONTENDER: Baltimore Ravens
Remember when people were saying Lamar Jackson wasn’t a great thrower?
They’re pretty quiet now.
Jackson has had a stellar season and should be in consideration for MVP. He’s completing 71% of his throws, has a 3-1 TD-INT ratio, and has a QBR of over 100.
He’s been great.
Baltimore also, as always, has a great defense supporting him on the other side of the ball. Zay Flowers has been a pleasant surprise as a rookie WR and Mark Andrews continues to play at a high level. Jackson also continues to make plays with his legs, averaging over 5 yards a carry and rushing for 5 TDs.
His playoff success is admittedly a question mark, but if there was any season where Baltimore could make a deep run in January, it’s this one.
PRETENDER: Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags are currently tied for the top of the entire AFC, and I think they are a really good team with a top, young QB in Trevor Lawrence.
Am I the only one that thinks they are a year away from being true contenders?
They got a taste of the playoffs last year, and even won in Wild Card Weekend after the crazy comeback over the LA Chargers. But I’m not sure if they are ready to contend quite yet.
They rank 24th in total defense, giving up almost 350 yards per game. They are 31st in Passing Yards per game allowed with 264 per game, but just 12th in Completion Percentage allowed at 63%. This means they are vulnerable to big plays.
Their offense is good, they rank 13th In Total offense in the NFL. But is that good enough to carry a lackluster defense?
I don’t think so.
CONTENDER: Detroit Lions
The Lions are for real.
HC Dan Campbell and OC Ben Johnson has them boys over in Detroit playing their tails off every single week, bar none.
Yes, they got thumped in Baltimore by the Ravens. But if I had to pick, the Ravens are probably my favorites to win the Super Bowl. So, I’ll give the Lions a pass there.
Besides that game, they’ve been great. They haven’t exactly had a daunting schedule, but they’ve taken care of business consistently.
Realistically, are they a year away? Probably so. But is there a world where they could get hot in December and ride that into January and February? Absolutely.
The NFC is very top heavy, and the Lions are one of those top teams. Buckle In, Detroit.
PRETENDER: Cleveland Browns
Are the Browns eternally cursed? Because it sure feels that way.
The Browns made a massive swing when they traded for controversial Texans QB Deshaun Watson after not playing for a full season. That trade, to this point, may be one of the worst trades ever in the NFL when you consider the guaranteed contract that was given to him after he was traded to Cleveland.
Now he is hurt (maybe?) and the Browns have been playing a combination of QBs in his place.
To add insult to injury, Superstar RB Nick Chubb went down with a horrendous injury earlier this season that will keep him out all this season.
Just when Browns fans have hope, it gets all ripped apart right in front of their eyes. It’s a shame too, because I think they have a good team and good players in crucial spots. I’m sorry Browns fans, I do genuinely feel bad for you.
CONTENDER: San Francisco 49ers
The Niners looked borderline unbeatable to start this season, jumping out to an early 5-0 record. But after some injuries and up-and-down QB play from Brock Purdy, San Fran is reeling a little bit.
Regardless, they have so much talent, basically everywhere, that it’s hard for me to leave them out of the contenders list. Kyle Shanahan is also one of the best young Head Coaches in the NFL and should be able to right the ship.
Shanahan basically needs Purdy to not mess this up, which I think he Is capable of doing. He is best served as a distributor, a la Dak Prescott (who I talked about earlier).
It sounds hypocritical considering what I wrote about Dak earlier, but the Niners weapons are just so extremely elite that I think it works for the Niners. They have the best RB in the league and two #1 WRs to get the ball to in space. Not to mention a Top 3 TE in the league when healthy.
It’s time for the 49ers to prove they belong with the big dogs in the NFL.
PRETENDER: Pittsburgh Steelers
Matt Canada. Next.
No seriously, this Steelers offense looks ancient and anemic. I don’t think Kenny Pickett is a great QB, and he is a limited passer. But Canada’s offense does him no favors at all.
Predictable play calling, no involvement of motion pre-snap, weird route combinations, no shots down field. It’s all bad.
Pittsburgh has a great defense, and probably the best defender in the NFL with T.J. Watt, which has kept them in a lot of games they probably had no business being in. But that isn’t a winning formula for January football.
Odds are that you won’t beat Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson by only scoring 17 points. You must put up some numbers eventually, and I don’t think the Steelers can do that.
Pittsburgh should be looking for a new offensive play caller after this season, and honestly, they should’ve done it last season.
