With the 2024 NFL season approaching, it’s not too early to peer into the crystal ball and see which notable superstars are bound to disappoint this year….and which big-named veterans are set to rebound from a shaky 2023.
So, with that, let’s dive into five NFL superstars who will decline in 2024 and five who are poised to bounce back.
Which NFL superstars are poised to have a steep decline this upcoming season, and which ones will thrive?
Decline: Josh Allen
Allen deserves all the credit in the world for carrying the Buffalo Bills on his back over the final stretch of the season. He returned to Superman form following a mid-season offensive coordinator change and led Buffalo on a five-game winning streak to close out the year and snag a fourth straight AFC East division crown.
Of course, that only ended with another miserable postseason defeat, with Buffalo falling to the Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional Round via “Wide Right Part II.”
The Bills bid farewell to several key players — includingAllen’s top-two receives in Stefon Davis and Gabe Davis plus Pro Bowl center Mitch Morse.
Losing Diggs — traded to the Houston Texans — is especially tough for Allen to stomach. He put up over 100 catches and more than 1,100 yards receiving each year in Buffalo. Good luck replacing that production.
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The cap-strapped Bills had to settle on cheaper wide receivers in free agency — Curtis Samuel, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Chase Claypool. They used the No. 33 pick on Florida state wideout Keon Coleman, one of the ultimate “boom-or-bust” prospects in this class.
So Allen lost perhaps his best offensive lineman and his two best receivers, including a guy who was unquestionably a top-five wideout in the game. And did we mention that Allen still threw a career-high 18 interceptions last season?
A down year is looming for Mr. Allen, alright.
Bounce Back: Jalen Hurts
Hurts finished second in MVP voting for 2022, and he likely would have beaten Patrick Mahomes if he hadn’t missed two games due to injury.
Hurts and his Philadelphia Eagles got off to a blistering start in 2023 and looked poised for a return to the Super Bowl. They were rolling at 10-1, coming off statement wins over Dallas, Kansas City and Buffalo.
But the Eagles imploded with losses in five of their final six games, handing the NFC East to the Cowboys on a silver platter. The season then ended with a humiliating blowout loss over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Wild Card Round.
Though Hurts set career highs in passing yards and passing TDs last season, he still threw a career-high 15 interceptions. He only had one outing with multiple TD passes over his last six games — a stretch that included three games without a single passing score.
Well…it’s on to 2024.
To put it simply, the Eagles are just too talented and loaded offensively to endure another collapse like that.
Nick Sirianni brought in one of the game’s best offensive-minded coaches, Kellen Moore, to serve as his OC. The Eagles also made a big-time splash by signing former New York Giants superstar and NFL running back Saquon Barkley as if the AJ Brown-DeVonta Smith-Dallas Goedert receiving trio wasn’t scary enough.
Philly still boasts a top-tier offensive line, and their defense should return to its elite 2022 form after an uncharacteristically bad 2023 season.
With a grade-A supporting cast and Moore now running the offense, expect Hurts to jump back into tier one of NFL quarterbacks. Tush push galore!!!
Decline: Stefon Diggs
Deciding they couldn’t deal with Diggs or stomach his hefty contract anymore, the Bills traded Diggs to the Houston Texans — along with 2024 sixth and 2025 fifth-round picks — for a 2025 second-rounder.
Diggs then agreed to a reworked contract that allows him to enter free agency in 2025. All we can say is that it’s a significant risk for a player who figures to endure quite a drop in production this year…
It’s not necessarily because Diggs doesn’t have Josh Allen throwing to him anymore. Diggs is going from one elite QB to another in CJ Stroud, who put up an MVP-caliber season as a rookie last year.
But the reason to believe Diggs will decline this year is obvious. Whereas he was the only true star and game-changing offensive weapon in Buffalo, Diggs now has to vie for targets on a deeper and more well-rounded Houston offense.
The Texans have two rising stars at wideout in Nico Collins and 2023 rookie sensation Tank Dell. They acquired four-time 1,000-yard rusher Joe Mixon to lead the ground game, and veteran tight end Dalton Schultz is no slouch himself with consistent 50-catch, 600-yard seasons.
Diggs will still produce in Houston, make no mistake. Of course, he makes them better. But in terms of individual stats, a considerable drop-off in production awaits. He won’t come close to 100 catches this upcoming season, and even 1,000 yards receiving may be asking for too much.
Bounce Back: Tee Higgins
2023 was a year to forget for Higgins, to say the very least. For starters, the Cincinnati Bengals’ playoff hopes were doomed once they lost star quarterback Joe Burrow for the year with a wrist injury.
And while Ja’Marr Chase turned in another excellent season, Higgins himself struggled with consistency from start to finish. The Clemson product missed five games due to injury and finished with a disappointing stat line of 42 receptions for 656 yards and five touchdowns.
But all signs point to a bounce-back year for Higgins, who’ll play 2024 under the franchise tag before presumably leaving in 2025 free agency. So yes, he will be ultra-motivated to produce like an NFL superstar again this year.
Oh, and having his starting quarterback for a full year will only help matters for Higgins, too. Not to be captain obvious, but having Burrow feeding you the ball is quite the upgrade from Jake Browning.
The departures of Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon will also open up more room for Higgins in the offense. He’s the undisputed No. 2 weapon now for Burrow, so expect the fifth-year wideout to regain his superstar form here in what will likely be his final season with the Bengals.
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Decline: L’Jarius Sneed
Sneed had the best season of his young four-year career in 2023, playing a monumental role in the Chiefs’ securing a second straight Super Bowl championship.
Sneed had two interceptions and 14 pass breakups. He didn’t allow a single TD in coverage during the regular season and yielded only a 56.2 passer rating when targeted, according to Pro Football Reference.
But the cap-strapped Chiefs couldn’t afford to retain Sneed long-term, so he was dealt to the Tennessee Titans in exchange for a third-round pick and a swap of 2024 seventh-rounders. Sneed then signed a four-year extension worth $76.4 million.
As great as Sneed was in Kansas City, you’ll have to mark us down as skeptical that he’ll experience similar success in Music City.
Steve Spagnuolo is one of the all-time great defensive-minded coaches who always got the most out of his cornerbacks. Andy Reid is a future Hall of Famer. Meanwhile, the Titans are rebuilding with a brand new coaching staff led by Brian Callahan and DC Dennard Wilson.
Sneed will work with a fraction of the talent in Tennessee that he had with the Chiefs. There is no Chris Jones, George Karlaftis, Trent McDuffie, Justin Reid or Nick Bolton here. The Titans have one of the worst secondaries in football, with zero proven stars back there.
This isn’t to say that Sneed will never gain that NFL superstar form again in Tennessee. But there will be one tough year of growing pains and adjustments as he goes from the NFL’s model organization to a young team in rebuilding mode.
Bounce Back: Jaire Alexander
The two-time Pro Bowler and two-time Second-Team All-Pro missed the majority of a season because of injuries for the second straight year. Alexander missed 13 games in 2021 and all but seven games in 2023.
Not only did Alexander finish with zero picks in those games, but the 66.7 completion percentage when targeted and the opposing 113.4 passer rating allowed marked career worsts for him, per Pro Football Reference.
But then Alexander regained his superstar form just in time for the NFL postseason. He had a game-changing interception off Dak Prescott in the Green Bay Packers’ blowout win over the Dallas Cowboys and helped keep the dynamic receiving tandem of Brandin Cooks and CeeDee Lamb in check.
So, obviously, a healthy Alexander makes all the difference for Green Bay. But the supporting cast around him also improved, with the signing of ex-New York Giants star safety Xavier McKinney and the pickup of Georgia DB Javon Bullard in round two.
Throw in a much-needed change at defensive coordinator, with Jeff Hatley replacing Joe Barry, and the sky’s the limit for this Green Bay group.
A healthy Alexander will re-emerge as a top-five corner in the league and help this talented but underachieving Green Bay unit regain its elite form.
Decline: Najee Harris
Pittsburgh’s 2021 first-round pick crossed 1,000 yards rushing and 1,20 total yards of offense for the third straight year — even posting a career-high eight rushing TDs in 2023.
However, the Steelers are clearly planning on reducing Harris’ workload in 2024; otherwise, they wouldn’t have declined the fifth-year option on his rookie deal. Consider this a good thing for the Steeler offense, though.
Harris won’t hit 1,000 yards again for two simple reasons. For starters, they actually have a decent quarterback room now in Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, who are both upgrades over the Mason Rudolph-Kenny Pickett-Mitch Trubisky trio.
Secondly, the Steelers will lean more on Jaylen Warren — who had 784 rushing yards and 1,154 yards of offense as Harris’ understudy last year. There’s a real chance here that Warren will take over as the lead RB in Pittsburgh.
Harris will still get his touches and make big-time plays, no doubt. But this Pittsburgh offense will transition to a more pass-happy unit with Wilson and/or Fields, and Warren promises to get a bigger slice of the pie this time around.
So Najee Harris fantasy owners, prepare to be a little disappointed this year. Don’t say we didn’t warn you.
Bounce Back: Joey Bosa
Injuries have limited the Los Angeles Chargers’ superstar edge-rusher to just 14 total NFL games over the past two years.
Bosa was the subject of trade and cut rumors, but the Bolts wound up bringing him back on a restructured deal — and smartly so. The success of this defense depends on a healthy and productive Bosa…
New head coach Jim Harbaugh is all about winning in the trenches, which is why the offensive line and running back positions were addressed this offseason. The Bolts didn’t have to adjust the front seven, though, because they know what a healthy Bosa and Khalil Mack can do together.
If Bosa avoids the injury bug this year, the four-time Pro Bowler will regain his elite form and re-assert himself into the tier of top NFL pass-rushers. 67 sacks in 93 career games is nothing to scoff at, folks.
And who knows? Bosa might take his game to another level we have yet to see with Harbaugh running the show over a much less qualified guy like Brandon Staley…
Decline: D.J. Moore
Moore was a godsend of a pickup for the Chicago Bears as part of the return in the Bryce Young trade. He formed immediate chemistry with Justin Fields, tallying 1,364 receiving yards and eight touchdowns.
Only five players finished with more receiving yards than Moore, who has now exceeded 1,000 yards receiving in four of the last five years.
With first-overall pick Caleb Williams taking over as the new starting QB in Windy City…Moore should be even better after posting a career year with a mediocre passer like Justin Fields, right?
Well, no. In fact, you shouldn’t be shocked if Moore actually sets career lows in 2024 — not that it’s a bad thing for the Bears.
They traded for six-time Pro Bowler Keenan Allen in a trade with the Chicago Bears. It’s essentially a coin flip there between who Williams will turn to more in the passing game.
And then, with the No. 9 pick, they drafted five-star wide receiver prospect Rome Odunze out of Washington. Odunze’s skill set is so high that he could easily emerge as Williams’ No. 1 guy over both Moore and Allen.
Not to mention the Bears also have one of football’s top running back tandems in D’Andre Swift and Khalil Herbert.
There’s only one football to go around. Everyone needs their fair share of touches, so expect a considerable statistical decline from Moore here — which again is a good thing for the Chicago Bears. It means everyone else on offense is doing their job.
Bounce Back: Trevor Lawrence
An awful late-season meltdown saw the Jacksonville Jaguars finish 9-and-8 to miss out on the postseason. The AFC South was right in their grasp until they gift-wrapped it to CJ Stroud’s Houston Texans.
After throwing 25 touchdowns against only eight picks last year, T-Law had just 21 TDs against 14 interceptions — three off the league-leading 17 he threw in his 2021 rookie year.
Not to worry, Jaguars fans. Lawrence is bound to bounce back as a superstar following a tremendous NFL offseason performance by general manager Trent Baalke.
The Jaguars signed ex-Bills deep threat Gabe Davis in free agency and picked up star center Mitch Morse to bolster the o-line following his release from Buffalo. They used a first-round pick on explosive LSU wideout Brian Thomas Jr., who should offset the departure of Calvin Ridley.
So, aside from an improved offensive line, Lawrence has five capable 1,000-yard weapons: Thomas Jr., Davis, Evan Engram, Christian Kirk, and Travis Etienne Jr. Add it all up, and Lawrence promises to show that he was worth that $275 million extension.
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