With the 2023 NFL Draft drawing closer, we’re on the verge of welcoming a whole new crop of rookies into the league.
But before we get to that, now seems like a good time to look back at this past season’s rookie class, to try and figure out which of these players will have long-lasting impacts on their teams, and which are bound to disappoint.
Obviously, one season doesn’t dictate an entire career. All of those rookies who got off to slow starts still have plenty of time to turn things around, while those who impressed in year one still have a lot to prove if they want to be regular contributors at the NFL level…
That being said, we’re still taking our shot at choosing which five 2022 NFL rookies are already look like massive draft steals, and which five are looking more like busts.
Massive Steal: Brock Purdy
Purdy was the final selection of the 2022 NFL draft… a.k.a. Mr. Irrelevant.
Nobody thought much of it at the time, of course. The 49ers already had two quality signal-callers in 2021 third-overall pick Trey Lance and veteran Jimmy Garoppolo. No way Purdy was going to see any meaningful action…right?
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Well, Lance unfortunately suffered a season-ending ankle injury in Week 2 against the Seattle Seahawks. Then, 10 weeks later, Garoppolo injured his foot and was also done for the season.
So San Fran’s Super Bowl hopes fell squarely on the 262nd overall pick. And Purdy had to make his first career start against Tom Brady, no less.
Piece of cake, though. Purdy’s 49ers made easy work of the GOAT and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 35-7. San Fran won each of Purdy’s five regular season starts, as he tossed 13 touchdowns against only four interceptions.
Purdy continued his red-hot play in the postseason, helping the 49ers past the Seahawks and then the Dallas Cowboys en route to an NFC Championship Game appearance. Unfortunately, Purdy suffered a UCL injury in the big game and was replaced by backup Josh Johnson, only to be forced to return in a very limited fashion when Johnson left due to a concussion.
With no healthy quarterbacks, the 49ers were no match for the Philadelphia Eagles. But there was A LOT for San Fran to build off of from their 2022 season. They now have a new quarterback controversy with Purdy vs. Lance. But it’s hard to imagine Brock not getting first dibs in 2023 after that impressive rookie performance.
Bust: Treylon Burks
Fair or not, Burks is going to be compared to ex-Tennessee Titan and current Eagles superstar AJ Brown for potentially the remainder of his career.
The Titans acquired the No. 18 selection from Philadelphia as part of the package which sent Brown to the Eagles. And with that pick, the Titans selected the Arkansas wideout.
To call it a calculated risk would be an understatement. The Titans could have just paid a borderline top-10 receiver what he’s worth, rather than hope an unproven rookie could fill that void completely. This probably explains why Jon Robinson isn’t the Titans’ GM anymore.
Burks missed six games in his rookie year but still wasn’t that productive when on the field. He caught 33 passes for 444 yards and a touchdown.
The Titans needed more from Burks, plain and simple. They took the risk by dealing away a superstar wideout with the hope of finding a cheaper and better replacement. Surely, if they had Brown, Tennessee wouldn’t have lost its final seven games and missed out on the postseason altogether.
Year one was a giant disappointment for Burks. Let’s see how he rebounds in year two.
Massive Steal: Tariq Woolen
There’s just something about the Seahawks finding stud defensive backs in the later rounds that’s like clockwork. Previously, it was Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor…and then, in 2022, they scooped up Coby Bryant and Tariq Woolen with the 109th and 153rd overall picks, respectively.
Bryant stood out as a rookie, but Woolen was a bonafide star in year one. Could the Legion of Boom 2.0 be brewing in Emerald City? Don’t bet against it.
Woolen tied Minkah Fitzpatrick, Justin Simmons and CJ Gardner-Johnson for the league lead in interceptions with six apiece to go along with a whopping 16 passes defended. Per Pro Football Reference, opposing QBs completed just 51.5 percent of their passes in his direction — and they combined for a woeful passer rating of 48.7.
In other words, it was a horrible idea to throw in Woolen’s direction. No reason to think it was beginner’s luck, either. The big 6-foot-4 corner has all the pieces to be a perennial All-Pro in this league.
Expect Woolen to be in the conversation for the NFL’s top corner within the next couple of years.
Bust: Devonte Wyatt
The Packers had two first-round picks in 2022, with one of them coming via the Las Vegas Raiders in the Davante Adams trade.
Surprisingly, however, the Packers decided to double down on defense instead of taking a receiver in round one. They used the No. 22 pick on Georgia linebacker Quay Walker and the No. 28 selection on his college teammate, Devonte Wyatt.
While Walker showed moments of brilliance as a rookie, Wyatt failed to make much of an impact in his brief action. Not ideal for a team that was in win-now mode — and not ideal for a team that underachieved enough to the point where Aaron Rodgers decided it was time to move on.
Wyatt played 23 percent of the Packers’ defensive snaps and had 1.5 sacks and 15 combined tackles.
Will he become an impact player with more playing time? Hopefully. But the fact the Packers went from 13 wins in 2021, to just eight last year while missing out on the playoffs is inexcusable. This team should have drafted Wyatt with the intention of making him a starter.
Making him a bench player did nothing to help them win in 2022. And now Rodgers is gone…
So, yeah, Wyatt better be a multi-time Pro Bowler for the Pack to justify this move.
Massive Steal: Malcolm Rodriguez
After one year, Brad Holmes’ second draft as the Detroit Lions’ GM looks very, very promising.
Aidan Hutchinson was a superstar in year one. Wideout Jameson Williams should be a difference-maker once he’s healthy. Safety Kerby Joseph and defensive end Josh Pascal showed some promise, too.
And then there was Malcolm Rodriguez, the overlooked Oklahoma State product who fell to the sixth round and landed right in the Lions’ laps at No. 188 overall.
Rodriguez made 15 starts on Dan Campbell’s defense and flourished in the front seven. He had one sack, to passes defended, a forced fumble and 87 combined tackles. He also allowed just one touchdown on 44 targets, per Pro Football Reference.
Rodriguez was named to the Pro Football Focus 2022 NFL All-Rookie Team, along with his teammate, Aiden Hutchinson. This 2022 draft class alone might turn the Lions’ defense into one of the NFL’s best in very short time.
Holmes has already been in the GM chair for two years, and yet he’s already way ahead of his predecessors in Motown. A job well done.
Bust: Wan’Dale Robinson
If the New York Giants didn’t exceed expectations in 2022, more would have been made about Robinson’s uninspiring rookie year.
With the No. 43 pick, the Giants took the speedy Kentucky wideout. Robinson missed all but six games due to injury, having suffered a season-ending ACL tear in Week 11 against the Lions.
But even in his six game appearances, Robinson couldn’t get much of anything going offensively. He hauled in just 23 receptions for 227 yards and a touchdown. Given the lack of play-making pass-catchers on the Giants’ roster, Robinson’s inability to make an impact was quite concerning.
Robinson felt like a reach when the Giants took him early in round two last year. George Pickens, for one, would have been a better pick for the G-Men.
Robinson can always turn it around if he stays healthy, but his disappointing rookie year has him in lurking in “bust” territory at the moment.
Massive Steal: Jack Jones
Bill Belichick has a way of turning little-known commodities into stud cornerbacks. Just look at what he did with Malcolm Butler, JC Jackson and Jonathan Jones. And now, the other Jones, Jack Jones, is just his latest example.
The Arizona State corner was taken in the fourth round — 121st overall — by the New England Patriots. Jones joined a deep secondary led by the aforementioned Jonathan Jones, Kyle Duggar and the now-retired Devin McCourty. And it didn’t take the rookie long to stand out.
Jones’ first big moment was a pick-six off of Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau Field in Week 4. That turned out to be just a glimpse of things to come.
Pro Football Focus graded Jones at a very-solid 74.7 on the year. He showed excellent ball skills, recording two interceptions, six passes defended and one forced fumble. And per Pro Football Reference, Jones allowed just a 54.7 completion percentage when targeted and a passer rating of 64.8.
We don’t know what to expect of the Patriots in 2023, but we do know this: They’ll once again field a top tier defense. And Jones is going to be a key reason why. Do not be surprised if he’s an All-Pro in year two.
Bust: Zion Johnson
After striking gold with the Rashawn Slater selection in the first round in 2021, it made perfect sense for GM Tom Telesco to address the interior offensive line in 2022. So with the No 17 selection, the Los Angeles Chargers drafted Boston College star guard Zion Johnson.
Well, 2022 was a trying year for the rookie guard. While fellow rookie Jamaree Salyer and veteran Cory Linsley kept the o-line intact, Johnson struggled to get a hang of things at the professional level.
PFF graded Johnson at 64.8 on the year. And in 1,184 offensive snaps, he committed five penalties and allowed five sacks.
The good news for the Chargers is that Slater looks like a future Pro Bowler. Linsey is still one of the game’s premier centers, and the Salyer pick has the makings to be one of the best draft steals in recent memory.
Now, what if Johnson can rebound from a rough rookie year and hit his ceiling? There’s no telling how great this offensive line could be. But make no mistake, there is a LOT for Johnson to work on if he’s going to go from bust to superstar in year two.
Massive Steal: Dameon Pierce
With the No. 107 selection, the Houston Texans took Florida running back Dameon Pierce. He wasn’t exactly a highly-touted prospect, and not just because Pierce was a fourth-round draft choice.
In college, Pierce never eclipsed 600 rushing yards. He had 23 total rushing touchdowns over four seasons at Florida, with 13 of them coming in his final year. But the Texans’ scouting staff looked beyond the stat sheet, and they clearly saw something the others didn’t.
Pierce was the Texans’ best offensive play-maker by a country mile in 2022, rushing for 939 yards and four touchdowns in 13 games. If he didn’t miss four contests, Pierce would have easily surpassed the 1,000-yard mark.
Pierce also made some plays in the pass-catching game, recording 30 receptions for 165 yards and a touchdown.
It’s early, but 2022 could go down as one of the best running back classes in recent memory: highlighted by names like Breece Hall, Kenneth Walker III, Tyler Allgeir, Brian Robinson Jr., Isaiah Pacheco and, of course, Dameon Pierce,
Bust: Kenyon Green
The Texans spent the No. 3 selection on cornerback Derek Stingley Jr., filling up one major roster weakness. With their second first-round pick at No. 15 overall, Houston took Texas A&M product Kenyon Green.
The pick made sense, because Laremy Tunsil was the only reliable offensive lineman on the Texans’ starting five at the time. And for all we know, Green will still develop into a difference-maker on a unit that has since added another veteran mainstay at guard in Shaq Mason.
Green will obviously need to watch his rookie game film to see what can be fixed. But we also wouldn’t blame him for just smashing those tapes altogether, because there really wasn’t much to like.
Per PFF, Green graded at 37.7 on the year. He took a ridiculous 12 penalties and surrendered four sacks. No sir, that’s just not going to cut it at the NFL level.
Granted, it didn’t help that he was playing on a team with Davis Mills as the quarterback and not much else around him on offense. That should change in 2023, when the Texans add a new franchise quarterback with the second-overall pick…
Maybe that’ll help the former Aggies star get his NFL career back on track.
Which other NFL rookies from 2022 already look like massive steals, and which ones look like busts?
