With the 2024 NFL season now in the books, it got us thinking: Which other ring-less star quarterbacks are bound to eventually join the championship club? And which ones will go down as all-time greats like Dan Marino and Philip Rivers — guys who never won the Super Bowl?
Here are five star NFL quarterbacks who will win a Super Bowl in the next 10 years and five who won’t.
Which star quarterbacks will win the Super Bowl soon, and which ones will come up short?
Will Win: Joe Burrow
We know, we know. The Cincinnati Bengals followed up consecutive AFC Championship Game appearances with two straight non-playoff seasons.
But are we really gonna sleep on the guy with winning head-to-head records against both Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen? The only active quarterback to beat Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC title game? ‘Course not.
Burrow is a top-five quarterback in the NFL, but we’ll happily argue that Patrick Mahomes is the only QB with a greater clutch gene in big-game moments. Dude only has two fewer playoff wins than Josh Allen in six fewer postseason games played, by the way.
You just can’t teach the “it” factor. You either have the ice in the veins, or you don’t. Burrow knows a thing or two about winning in big games, with a national championship in his final year at LSU and a trip to Super Bowl 56 in his first healthy NFL season.
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The Chiefs are still the kings of the AFC, but the Bengals are the one team that plays them without any fear. We’d argue that they’re more likely to win multiple Super Bowls than to win none at all.
Burrow’s time is coming. Eventually, the Bengals will finally break through with the franchise’s first championship.
Won’t Win: Dak Prescott
We know loyal Dallas Cowboys fans are tired of being reminded of the cold hard truth, but it remains just that — the cold hard truth. As long as Jerry Jones keeps calling the shots, Dallas won’t win another Super Bowl.
You can feel sorry for Prescott, who probably deserves better after being stuck with Jason Garrett and Mike McCarthy, of all guys, as his head coaches. Did we mention Jerry is a terrible GM, too?
Then again, nobody told Dak he had to sign two long-term contract extensions with Dallas over a three-year period. If only he could put loyalty aside and realize Jones would unintentionally do everything in his power to prevent Dallas from winning it all.
Love or hate Dak, this much is clear: He plays like a top-five NFL quarterback when he’s on his game. On other days, he’s this era’s Tony Romo — the very man he succeeded in Big D nearly a decade ago.
Prescott’s underwhelming postseason appearances aren’t the only issue, though. The Cowboys’ defense has always had a bad habit of choking in the postseason.
The offensive line has been shaky for a while now. The ground game isn’t what it used to be, and we’re still waiting for Jones to find a capable No. 2 receiver to help CeeDee Lamb. If only they ever had a guy like Amari Cooper, huh?
I’m Sorry, Dak, but signing that four-year extension worth $240 million meant giving up your chance at winning a Super Bowl—at least in Dallas.
Will Win: Jared Goff
Goff’s best chance at a Super Bowl thus far came in his third NFL season, when the Los Angeles Rams fell to Tom Brady’s dynastic New England Patriots in Super Bowl 53.
That was supposed to be a big learning experience for the No. 1 pick of 2016, but Sean McVay and the Rams would swap him out for Matthew Stafford in an all-time blockbuster deal just two seasons later.
Stafford completed the Rams’ Super Bowl mission in his first year on the West Coast. Goff has enjoyed his best football for Dan Campbell’s squad and helped turn Detroit into an NFC heavyweight. So far, no cigar.
The Lions lost to the San Francisco 49ers in the 2023 NFC Championship Game after coughing up a 17-point lead. A year later, they finished as the NFC’s No. 1 seed but were crushed by the Washington Commanders in the Divisional Round.
But let’s not put the “choker” label on Goff and the Lions just yet. Remember, they were decimated by injuries on the defensive side of the ball in 2024. This is still an elite roster with great mix of young and veteran talents as well as a top-tier head coach.
Goff still has plenty of good football left in him. Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta, David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs, Penei Sewell, Aidan Hutchinson, and Brian Branch are also in the midst of or just entering their prime years.
There’s too much talent on the Lions. They’re too well-coached to disappoint again and again and again in the playoffs. We know Lions fans are sick of “waiting” after nearly 70 years of misery. But believe us — a Super Bowl is within their grasp.
Only a matter of time until Goff leads the Lions to their first Super Bowl championship.
Won’t Win: Baker Mayfield
Mayfield has been a feel-good story during his tenure with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Nobody paid much attention when he signed a one-year deal in 2023 free agency following Tom Brady’s retirement.
Mayfield shredded the bust label by enjoying a career year in 2023 and by helping the Bucs to a surprise NFC South division crown. Proving it was no fluke, Mayfield was even better in 2024 by setting career highs with 4,500 passing yards and 41 touchdowns.
But unfortunately for Mayfield, the long-term outlook in Tampa Bay isn’t exactly promising. And as nice as those NFC South division title banners look at Raymond James Stadium, winning the NFC South these days isn’t exactly an accomplishment.
The problem for Mayfield is that the Bucs don’t have many long-term cornerstone players. Mike Evans will be 32 next year. Todd Bowles’ defense has been getting worse and worse each year since their Super Bowl 55 championship run, too.
Mayfield, Evans, and running back Bucky Irving can’t carry out this operation on their own. And eventually, their NFC South foes will catch up if they keep compiling early selections in the first round.
It’s just hard to trust a mediocre Bucs team to win the NFC over the likes of the Lions, Philadelphia Eagles, Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers, Minnesota Vikings, and Washington Commanders.
Add it all up, and the obstacles in the NFC for Mayfield and the Bucs are just too much to overcome.
Will Win: Jordan Love
The Packers failed to take a step forward in 2024 after a surprise run to the Elite Eight a year ago, but let’s not throw in the towel on Jordan Love already. Please.
There was no shame in losing to the superior Eagles in the Wild Card Round. And do you really think the Lions and Vikings will finish with 15 and 14 wins in the same year again? Absolutely not.
The Packers were a great team in a historically great division in 2024. They had a top-10 scoring offense and defense. Love, Josh Jacobs, Jayden Reed, Rashan Gary, Devonte Wyatt, and Edgerrin Cooper are a tremendous foundation to build around – with plenty of room for GM Brian Gutekunst to add more talent.
Love has displayed a remarkable ability to handle the pressure, as evidenced by his masterfully succeeding Aaron Rodgers in Titletown. As long as Love and the Packers’ core players continue to improve, the long-awaited fifth Lombardi Trophy will come to Green Bay within the next decade.
Won’t Win: Tua Tagovailoa
The No. 5 pick of 2020 deserves plenty of credit for making the Dolphins relevant after a mostly uneventful 2010s decade for the franchise. Four winning seasons and two playoff appearances to begin your career is no joke.
But Tagovailoa is not at all set up nicely to compete for a Super Bowl in the short term or in the long term. For starters, we all have serious questions about his long-term playing future and durability due to the concerning amount of concussions he has suffered in his young career.
It feels like Tagovailoa is one more concussion away from retiring, and nobody would be able to blame him for that. Even if he stays healthy for the next 5-10 years, we’re still not optimistic about Miami’s Super Bowl chances.
Tyreek Hill relies too much on his speed, and he showed signs of decline in 2024. The Dolphins’ o-line is still shaky, and the defense lacks elite young talent outside of Jaelan Phillips and Chop Robinson.
Playing in the AFC East with Josh Allen’s Buffalo Bills will always be a problem. And to say nothing about other top conference contenders like the Chiefs, Bengals, Baltimore Ravens, Houston Texans, or Los Angeles Chargers.
Add it all up, and it’s just practically impossible to envision a Super Bowl celebration for Tua and the Dolphins.
Will Win: Jayden Daniels
Do we need to say much more?
Daniels had, in our eyes, the greatest rookie season in NFL history if you take the postseason into account. The No. 2 pick of 2024 single-handedly saved the long-suffering Washington Commanders franchise in year one, leading them to 12 wins and the franchise’s first NFC Championship Game appearance since 1991.
Daniels completed 69 percent of pass attempts for 3,568 yards, 25 touchdowns, and just nine interceptions to go along with 891 rushing yards and six rushing scores.
Daniels led Washington to a thrilling win over Baker’s Bucs in the Wild Card Round, then embarrassed the top-seeded Lions on their home turf to set up the NFC title game showdown with the Eagles.
No, Washington wasn’t much of a challenge as the Eagles cruised to a 55-23 victory. But the Eagles are a battle-tested team full of veteran stars in win-now mode. The Commanders had no big-game experience and are just entering their window of opportunity now.
Daniels is the real deal, who only gets better when the pressure grows. Dan Quinn is a top-tier head coach. Adam Peters is already 10 times better than any GM Washington employed in the Dan Snyder era.
Since Snyder isn’t here to ruin the party anymore, Commanders fans needn’t worry about 2024 being a flash-in-the-pan year. This team will be a juggernaut for years to come, and you can bank on Daniels leading this team to at least one Super Bowl championship.
Won’t Win: Kyler Murray
As hard as it is to believe, Murray has now completed six seasons in the NFL. And truth be told, the Cardinals aren’t much closer to a Super Bowl now than when they drafted him first overall in 2019.
You can blame former head coach Kliff Kingsbury and a lackluster Arizona defense for wasting Murray’s early years all you want. But Murray has never been a consistently great quarterback. Look up “Hot and cold” in a sports dictionary, and you’ll see his picture.
Fans know all about the Cardinals’ ugly habit of unraveling in the second half. It hasn’t changed since Kingsbury’s firing, as Arizona dropped five of their final games in 2024 under Jonathan Gannon to miss the playoffs for a third straight year.
The Bidwill family ownership seems to be content with mediocrity. Arizona will always be in that seven-to-10-win range with Murray. Their o-line stinks, and the defense is always a mess. Murray’s limitations as a passer mean he can’t elevate his team the way guys like Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, and Patrick Mahomes can.
So yeah, Murray’s not the guy who’s bringing Arizona its first Super Bowl championship. We’ve seen enough to confidently make that statement. Carry on…
Will Win: Josh Allen
Most of us can agree that Josh Allen is the best ACTIVE ringless quarterback. It’s unbelievable how much bad luck he’s experienced in the postseason: The 13-second game…Wide Right II…the 4th-and-inches QB sneak that wasn’t in the 2024 AFC title game…you name it.
The Bills’ constant postseason shortcomings in the Allen-Sean McDermott era have drawn comparisons to Jim Kelly’s 90s Bills. That squad went to four straight Super Bowls and lost them all, never tasting championship glory despite constant regular-season success.
But we have the more optimistic view: Allen is too freaking good, and McDermott is too damn good of a coach, for Buffalo to keep going home empty-handed. His last three playoff losses against Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs were decided by a single score.
The law of averages means he’s due to get the big bounces eventually. Allen is a warrior who just needs a bit of extra luck from his defense or special teams to conquer Mahomes and any other Super Bowl obstacle.
Hang in there, Bills fans.
Won’t Win: Lamar Jackson
One reason Philip Rivers never reached a Super Bowl with the Chargers? The AFC had three better quarterbacks in Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Ben Roethlisberger. Even Joe Flacco’s Ravens were a problem for Rivers.
Well, Jackson is in a similar situation as Rivers here. His team is great in the regular season, but the playoffs have been another story. Such is life when Mahomes’ Chiefs, Burrow’s Bengals, and Allen’s Bills are in your way.
The math says between these four quarterbacks in each other’s way each year, one of them won’t ever touch the Super Bowl. We’d wager Jackson, given his concerning habit of underperforming in the playoffs each year.
Derrick Henry, this team’s second-most important player, isn’t getting any younger. And if you wanna ask Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, and Michael Vick, dual-threat QBs like Jackson wear down much earlier than pocket passers.
Love ya, Lamar. But you’ve already blown the best chances you’ll ever have at a Super Bowl.
