Much to the chagrin of wide receivers, running backs, and defensive ends everywhere… the NFL is, and for the foreseeable future will remain—a quarterback-driven league.
There is no more pivotal position in sports! The top NFL teams win and lose games based on how their signal caller performs, plain and simple.
Needless to say, it is critical to have the right man under center…
But just because a guy delivers one year—doesn’t mean he will the next… and vice versa. What’s the expression—past successes are not indicative of future returns?
In any case, let’s take a look around the league at five quarterbacks that are poised to improve in 2024 and 5 that are on the DECLINE.
Which NFL quarterbacks are going to have a great season, and which ones are bound to falter?
Improve – Justin Herbert
The media narrative around Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers is all about potential and untapped greatness— in some ways, the notion that he has underperformed has been a little bit unfair to be honest… because the former Oregon standout has been one of the most impressive passers in the league ever since he broke into the NFL.
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Think about it… He threw for over 4300 yards and 31 touchdowns as a rookie, then followed that up with a massive 5014 yard and 38 touchdown sophomore season.
That said, he did have a down year in 2023—in part—due to injury and, more broadly, because… well… the Chargers as a whole were a mess.
It was far and away the worst season of his pro career—and even then, he threw for 3134 yards in 13 games and had a 20-touchdown-to-seven interception ratio. It’s not too shabby for a “down year”…
In any case, the expectation is that any of the negative sentiment around the NFL quarterback and the team this will change in a big way this year now that Jim Harbaugh has come to the City of Angels.
Harbaugh is a culture guy through and through. And he will get the Chargers rowing in the same direction!
This is really all that Justin Herbert needs at this point to get back on track and improve his play after his disappointing campaign last year.
Decline – Brock Purdy
Brock Purdy was the Cinderella story of the 2022 season, as he stepped in amid a flurry of injuries and led the 49ers on an unexpected playoff run.
And he followed that up with a 2023 campaign that was good enough to inspire the wider sports media world to debate whether or not he was elite for the entire season…
The media buzz is all about whether Purdy can handle the pressure of lifting this NFL team over the proverbial Super Bowl hump as the starting quarterback, but watch out, Niners fans, because there is a very real chance that Purdy will come crashing back down to earth this season.
As last season wore on, we saw that opposing defenses started to get a better idea of how to prepare for him and neutralize his skill set.
If things start off on the wrong foot for San Francisco this season and they stumble out of the gate, I wouldn’t be shocked to see things start to come apart at the seams for Purdy.
Improve – Justin Fields
Justin Fields’ final season in Chicago was a tough one, especially because of the increased expectations folks had for him after the Bears brought in star wide receiver DJ Moore.
He only played 13 games and his passing numbers were right in line with the mediocre totals he had put up in first two season, whereas folks were really expecting him to take a big step forward.
This was the nail in the coffin for the Justin Fields experiment in Chicago, as the Bears have since elected to use their first overall pick in the draft to bring top prospect Caleb Williams to town—and subsequently shipped Field out of town.
The dual-threat quarterback landed in Pittsburgh where he will be competing with former Super Bowl winner, Russell Wilson for the starting job—but don’t be surprised if we see him end up snagging quarterback duties and having a renaissance under NFL coach Mike Tomlin and his staff.
The Steelers are loaded with talent and have the kind of organizational infrastructure that Fields could thrive in—because it was completely absent in Chicago.
I’m just picturing George Pickens streaking down the sideline for a deep ball and Fields floating one in there… Plus, they can deploy all of the motion and deceiving runs around their rushing attack.
All signs point to major improvement for Justin Fields this year.
Decline – Jared Goff
We have to give credit where credit is due… and when Jared Goff arrived in Detroit after being jettisoned out of Los Angeles in favor of the veteran, now Super Bowl winning, Matt Stafford, he did so largely as an afterthought.
The media pegged Goff as a sitting duck, a bridge NFL quarterback… Someone who was going to take the snaps—and likely the hits—while the Lions continued to flounder about trying to find a true franchise quarterback.
Goff, however, has continued to raise his level each season in Detroit under Dan Campbell, and his Lions have continued to exceed expectations.
This year, unfortunately, will be a different story. We saw something similar playout during Goff’s tenure with the Rams, where once the team started to really gain notoriety around the league and have actual expectations put on them, their signal caller struggled to answer the bell.
Coming off of the NFC Championship Game appearance, the expectations will be sky-high in the motor city—and that could spell doom for Jared Goff and the Lions Faithful!
Improve – Trevor Lawrence
We are now three years removed from the Urban Meyer debacle in Jacksonville, and it is time for Trevor Lawrence to rise to the occasion and meet the admittedly massive expectations that the media and the NFL had for him coming out of Clemson.
Or he will forever go down as a disappointment—at least within the realm of number one overall picks!
After all… This is a guy that people said was supposed to be a generational talent… the most “can’t miss” prospect since Andrew Luck.
Lawrence has looked markedly better since the aforementioned Meyer left Jacksonville—particularly at the beginning of last season.
Jacksonville’s collapse down the stretch of last season was a little bit troublesome, but most folks close to the league believe that Lawrence was suffering silently from ailments to his arm and his back.
Heading into this season, his health should be replenished and his confidence renewed.
Especially now that the Jaguars have added key offensive pieces, with the likes of former Bills deep threat Gabe Davis and rookie speedster out of LSU Brian Thomas Jr. at wide receiver.
Looking for Lawrence to take a big leap forward this year down in Duvall.
Decline – Aaron Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers’ move to the New York Jets was one of the biggest stories of 2023.
The blockbuster trade brought immense excitement and high expectations to a franchise that has long been searching for stability at the quarterback position. However, the narrative shifted dramatically following Rodgers’ Achilles tear early in the 2023 season.
And when we say early… for those who don’t remember—it was EARLY. Like just a handful of snaps into the season early—the kind of early that could really only happen to the New York Jets.
In any case…
Heading into this season at 40 years old, Rodgers faces significant challenges in recovering from such a severe injury.
Achilles tears are notoriously difficult to come back from, particularly for older athletes. The rehabilitation process is long and arduous, requiring extensive physical therapy to regain strength and mobility in the affected leg. Even with the best medical care and training, there’s no guarantee that Rodgers will return to his previous level of performance—in fact—it is more likely that he doesn’t than that he does.
Granted, he is an NFL quarterback… not a wide receiver or a running back who needs to make explosive cuts or burn defenders downfield with his speed… So, there is a possibility that he is able to play around the ailing leg, but it is hard to believe that his best days aren’t now officially behind him.
Improve – Will Levis
Will Levis is one of the most intriguing young quarterbacks heading into 2024, even amid the organizational chaos in Tennessee following the surprising firing of long-time head coach Mike Vrabel.
The media narrative around Levis and the Tennessee Titans is one of hope and potential after the first-year quarterback showed some serious promise in limited action during his rookie season prior to getting injured.
Levis, who was originally taken by the Titans in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft, entered the league with mixed expectations, but during those first couple starts in his rookie season, Levis demonstrated all of the attributes that had some scouts extremely bullish on him.
He showed glimpses of his immense, natural throwing talent, showcasing a strong arm, poise in the pocket, and the ability to make plays under pressure.
Although his playing time was limited, he left a lasting impression on both the coaching staff and the fanbase.
There is added optimism surrounding Levis is the Titans’ proactive approach in the offseason to bolster the roster, particularly since the Titans’ front office finally made significant moves to improve the offensive line, addressing one of the team’s most glaring weaknesses and providing Levis with the protection he needs to thrive.
With more time in the pocket, Levis can fully utilize his arm strength and accuracy to dissect defenses—and… well… not get injured. Look for a breakout year from the former Wildcat standout!
Decline – Tua Tagovailoa
Despite showing flashes of brilliance at points in his young career, Tua has been consistently hampered by injuries.
In 2023 he continued to have issues with concussions—and that was coming off the scary one that he endured the year prior, which not only limited his playing time but also raised serious concerns about his long-term durability.
Especially when you consider that the Dolphins’ offensive line, while improved, still has question marks.
Last year, Tua under constant pressure, especially against good competition… Which contributed to his injuries and inconsistent play.
Heading into this season, there will be immense pressure and expectations to deliver in Miami despite the competitive AFC East… Circumstances that Tagovailoa hasn’t typically excelled in throughout his career.
It may be a tough road ahead for the left signal caller down in South Beach.
Improve – Bryce Young
Listen… Honestly, this one may be a little bit of a pity pick. Because, frankly, we feel bad for Bryce Young.
His rookie season could NOT have gone worse. It was hard to watch… And not just because the football that Carolina was playing was so bad and unexciting, but because he was out there taking a pounding every week.
The Panthers did a terrible job of setting him up for success, though… They shipped out a lot of their top players—on the offensive side of the ball too, like when they shipped DJ Moore to Chicago for pennies on the dollar—then they thrust their rookie quarterback, who clearly wasn’t ready for Prime Time into the starting lineup and just let him get pummeled all year.
That said—it isn’t just sympathy selection, though… On some level, Bryce Young can only go up after his abysmal rookie season… I mean, if he doesn’t improve—it may start to look dubious for his prospects to ever establish himself as a legitimate starting quarterback in the NFL.
Plus, the Panthers finally had the good sense to start investing in the offense around Young, particularly on the offensive line, where they added Damien Lewis and Robert Hunt at guard in free agency—plus former Pittsburgh Steeler wide receiver Diontae Johnson to run routes alongside veteran Adam Thielen.
Between the massive room for improvement, the new additions to his squad, and the necessity of getting off the mat and raising his performance, we believe that former number-one overall pick Bryce Young will find a way to step it up this season.
Decline – Kirk Cousins
I’m sorry to say this Falcons fans… as I know you have been through some quarterback pains over the last few years since Matt Ryan officially went over the hill…
But I don’t think that Kirk Cousins is going to be the magic bullet you are looking for to get this team back into true relevancy.
Yes, even if he declines from his level of performance in Minnesota, which we expect him to, he will still likely be a drastic improvement over the two-headed monster that was Taylor Heinicke and Desmond Ridder…
But we have a hard time buying that he will be able to keep par with his own standards now that he is coming off an achilles injury heading into his age-36 season.
Especially with the added pressure and bizarre dynamic of the Falcons having drafted Michael Penix Jr. in the first round shortly after signing Cousins under the pretenses that they would likely not be taking his predecessor in the draft.
All reports suggest that he will be full speed ahead going Week 1, but it is hard to believe that there won’t be any lingering effects from the injury he suffered in Week 8 last year.
Let’s just say—we won’t be expecting serious returns on our Kirk Cousins stock this year.
