NFL free agency is in full swing, and this year is one of the most wild in recent memory. Teams like the Steelers, Bears and Raiders have completely shaken up their rosters and will enter the 2024 season with new hopes and dreams. Players have found new homes and big money and fans hope their team makes out with a new superstar. In that token, we’re listing five moves that will be celebrated and five that will haunt their respective teams.
Help: Chris Jones, Kansas City Chiefs
Jones has been the engine of the Chiefs’ defense for years. In 2023, the Chiefs and Jones could not work out a long-term deal and agreed to a one-year contract worth about $25 MM. Many speculated that Jones would not return to the Chiefs due to their inability to make a long-term commitment. However, Jones and the Chiefs agreed to a five-year, $159MM deal at the start of the free agency period. This is absolutely huge for the modern Chiefs dynasty that is looking for a three-peat. Jones will continue to wreck offensive game plans from the defensive line and help keep the Chiefs as perennial Super Bowl favorites.
Disaster: Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles
Saquon Barkley is a good player, however, he has not been the same player he was his first two seasons before his 2020 ACL tear. He failed to average four yards per rushing attempt in two of his last three years and has not averaged five yards per touch since his sophomore season. While still under thirty, Barkley should hit the mythical 1800 carry wall sometime during this contract. If the Eagles manage his snaps well, he may be alright, but if they plan to drive him into the ground, he may be useless in the middle of his three-year $37.75MM deal.
Help: Xavier McKinney, Green Bay Packers
McKinney was among the youngest players in this free agency class and was able to secure a four-year, $68MM deal from the Packers. The safety is a tackle machine, racking up 117 last year after playing every defensive snap. McKinney is also no slouch in coverage with three picks in 2023. The Packers got a defensive lynch-pin in his prime, for a team ready to take back over in the NFC North.
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Disaster: Tyron Smith, New York Jets
The Jets desperately needed offensive line help, and Smith is indeed among the most talented linemen in the class. However, Smith has not played a full season since 2015 and averaged just 7.5 games played in the past 4 years. The Jets cannot afford to have one of their highest-value signings of the year (one year, $20MM) sit on the sidelines injured. Unfortunately, Smith has not been able to string together consecutive double-digit start seasons for a while, and he just had one last year. For New York’s sake, we hope we’re wrong.
Help: Marquise Brown, Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs truly seem to do everything right. In desperate need of a deep ball threat and a legitimate WR1 to get the defense off of Travis Kelce’s back, they get one of the better wide-outs in the free agent class. Brown and the Chiefs agreed to a one-year $11 MM deal. Brown’s numbers declined a bit the past two seasons with the QB situation in Arizona dicey, to say the least, but with Mahomes and Reid’s offense, Brown is poised to explode beyond even his great 2021 Baltimore year.
Disaster: Leonard Williams, Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks had a massive number of defensive players enter free agency this season, including Williams as well as perennial All-Pro Bobby Wagner. The Hawks were able to bring back Williams on a three-year, $64.5 MM contract. However, they may have signed the wrong guy. Williams has not been the sack machine he once was. In the past three seasons, he’s only put up 14.5 sacks, compared to the 11.5 he put up in 2020. His QB hits have also declined, he averaged 21.8 in his first six years in the NFL, but only 14 in the past three years. Sure, Williams has picked up a more run-stopping role, but spending big money on the defensive line is typically reserved for players who get after the QB. With Williams heading over the age of 30 hills as well, this contract is not entirely thrilling for the Seahawks.
Help: Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons
Cousins got his massive payday, a four-year, $180 MM deal, to head down to Atlanta. Kirk has been a stalwart QB, putting up 4,000+ years in seven of his last eight seasons before the injury-shortened 2023. The Falcons dealt with QB issues the past two years but seemed to have the team to compete with a better QB. With strong skilled players and a good defense, Cousins immediately makes this team a playoff-likely one, especially in that weak division.
Disaster: Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The other massive payday in the NFC South may not work out so well. Mayfield had a tremendous season for the Bucs last year, earning his first Pro Bowl honors. However, Mayfield has never strung together consecutive strong seasons in a row, dating back to his time in Cleveland. Shelling out a three-year $100 MM contract for a player who isn’t consistent is not the most savvy move we’ve seen. The Bucs were desperate, though. Options weren’t particularly attractive beyond Mayfield. We’ll see if the former Heisman can finally get it together in Tampa.
Help: Leonard Floyd, San Francisco 49ers
Floyd is simply one of the best pass rushers in the game. He rarely misses time and gets 10 sacks like it’s his job because it is. The Niners already had a formidable defense, and adding Leonard Floyd for two years to the tune of $20MM will make it even better. The defending NFC champs should be very happy with this one.
Disaster: Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens
Henry is the face of hard-nosed football. He’s led the NFL in carries the past four of five seasons, and would have led all five, if not for missing half the 2021 season due to injury. However, therein lies the problem. How much does Henry have left in the tank? Yes, the man is a physical freak, but we just can’t trust a running back with that much mileage to either not regress massively (as he already had begun to last year), or deal with serious injuries. The two-year $16 MM deal doesn’t put an albatross around the Ravens’ neck, but it may not end up as rosy as some fans have so far pictured it.
