As every football fan, player and coach knows, it’s largely a game of inches. Sometimes, it’s better to be lucky than good.
And while five of the NFL’s all-time great quarterbacks were always the beneficiary of lady luck, five other former star signal-callers just never ever seemed to get the bounces. Their team always suffered the worst misfortunes at the worst possible times.
With that said, let’s dive into the five luckiest NFL quarterbacks of all time…as well as the five unluckiest.
Luckiest: Tom Brady
And as a wise person once said, “The better you are, the luckier you get.”
Brady more than earned his seven Super Bowl championship rings. But you gotta remember how much luck he had during his playing career. For starters, he became the New England Patriots starting QB after a vicious hit from Mo Lewis on Drew Bledsoe in a 2001 game.
Then you had the Tuck Rule Game against the Oakland Raiders that started the dynasty. You had John Kasay kicking the ball out of bounds late in Super Bowl 38, giving Brady a short field to set up Adam Vinatieri as the hero.
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You had Russell Wilson throwing it from the one-yard line in Super Bowl 49, gift-wrapping Brady and the Pats ring No. 4. You also had the Atlanta Falcons blowing a 25-point lead in Super Bowl 51 that was an even bigger Christmas present than what Seattle gave New England two years earlier.
You had the Dee Ford offside penalty that wiped out Brady’s game-sealing pick in the 2018 AFC title game.
And things completely went Brady’s way during his 2020 Super Bowl run with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He got to face backup QB Taylor Heinicke in the wild-card round instead of Alex Smith.
His Bucs snuck by the New Orleans Saints in the Divisional Round with Drew Brees basically playing at 30 percent. And in Super Bowl 55, how fortunate Brady was to watch Patrick Mahomes run for his life all day long behind an offensive line full of backups.
Brady is the GOAT, but he’s also the luckiest player in NFL history. Both are allowed to be true.
Unluckiest: Jim Kelly
You oughta be the epitome of unlucky to lose in four straight Super Bowls.
I mean, who knows how much history NFL history would have been if Scott Norwood hadn’t missed the game-winning field goal in Super Bowl 25? If he makes that, maybe the Bills form a dynasty and win three or four Super Bowls. At the very least, they’re not 0-and-4.
And call it bad timing that Kelly’s star-studded Bills just had to meet Troy Aikman’s dynastic Dallas Cowboys in back-to-back Super Bowls in the 1992 and ‘93 seasons. It’s like when the Karl Malone and John Stockton-led Utah Jazz had to face MJ’s Chicago Bulls in back-to-back NBA Finals.
Any other team and the Bills could have been a dynasty like those late ‘90s Jazz. Of course, you just had to meet the one team that was better than you in back-to-back years.
But Kelly’s unbelievable career misfortunes didn’t only happen four times on the grand stage. Don’t forget that a wide-open Ronnie Harmon dropped a game-winning TD pass in the waning seconds against the Cleveland Browns in the 1989 Divisional Round.
And don’t forget that in his final NFL game — a 3-point loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars in the Wild Card Round — Kelly was knocked out with a concussion. Backup Todd Collins was unable to play hero for Kelly, who wound up retiring after the season.
Once the postseason rolled around, a series of unfortunate events unfolded for Kelly’s snake-bitten Bills.
Luckiest: Eli Manning
Remember what we said about Brady being lucky? Well, none other than Eli Manning built his legacy on the very few unfortunate bounces of Brady’s near-flawless career.
I mean, just think about the New York Giants’ game-winning drive in Super Bowl 42 against the previously undefeated Patriots. In the play before David Tyree’s iconic “Helmet Catch”, Patriots cornerback Asante Samuel dropped a game-sealing interception with nobody near him.
And then the Helmet Catch happened. As jaw-dropping as it was, let’s be real…it was incredibly lucky at the same time.
And then what about four years later when the Giants went for a second Super Bowl ring with Eli and Tom Coughlin? Well, you had Kyle Williams of the San Francisco 49ers fumble a punt in overtime of the 2011 NFC Championship Game — allowing Lawrence Tynes to kick an easy game-winning field goal.
In Super Bowl 46, you had Wes Welker drop an easy first-down pass that would have likely iced the game. A few plays later, Manning completed the miraculous, one-in-a-million throw to Mario Manningham that set up Ahmad Bradshaw’s game-winning touchdown.
Oh, and you also had Rob Gronkowski JUST-BARELY-MISS Brady’s Hail Mary heave on the final play of Super Bowl 46.
So think about that: If Samuel doesn’t drop the pick, and if Welker doesn’t drop the easiest catch of his life, Brady could have nine rings. Eli would be 0-and-2 in Super Bowls and wouldn’t be known as the GOAT’s Kryptonite.
Unluckiest: Matt Ryan
If there was a QB in the 21st century who closely mirrored Dan Marino, it was Matt Ryan.
Think about it. Both have one NFL MVP award to their names. Both are in the top 10 all-time in career passing yards and passing touchdowns, with the two legends each hitting the 60 K passing yards mark.
And despite their all-world numbers, both Marino and Ryan each only played in one Super Bowl. And of course, both men lost their only Super Bowl appearances.
As you know, neither man got the bounces when it mattered most.
A week after torching the Seattle Seahawks’ Legion of Boom for 250 yards and three touchdowns in a thrilling 2012 NFC Divisional Round victory, Matty Ice fared even better against a superior San Francisco 49ers team in the NFC Championship Game.
In that game, Matty Ice had 390 passing yards, three touchdowns and one interception. But his Falcons’ defense choked mightily in that game, blowing a 17-0 lead and allowing 149 rushing yards in a 28-24 loss.
Four years later, Ryan won 2016 league MVP honors and led Atlanta to Super Bowl 51. Folks love to blame Ryan for blowing that infamous 28-3 lead to the New England Patriots, but last time we checked, Ryan had 284 passing yards, two touchdowns and no picks despite being under duress all game long.
It’s not Ryan’s fault that Kyle Shanahan got reckless with his play-calling in the second half. Or that the defense couldn’t stop a nosebleed. Or that Robert Alford dropped a game-sealing interception that fell into Julian Edelman’s hands for an all-time circus catch.
Also, not Ryan’s fault that the Falcons lost the coin toss…and that the NFL waited five years to change its playoff OT rules.
Oh, and how about the usually-reliable Julio Jones letting a late go-ahead touchdown against the Philadelphia Eagles go right through his hands in the 2017 Divisional Round?
Ryan always did his part for Atlanta in the postseason. Sadly, his defense and coaching staff never held up their ends of the bargain. Nor did the bounces.
Luckiest: Ben Roethlisberger
Where to start? Roethlisberger’s first Super Bowl-winning season as a sophomore in 2005 was an all-time luck fest. In the Wild Card round against the Cincinnati Bengals, Carson Palmer was knocked out of the game early — allowing Roethlisberger and company to cruise by a team with a backup QB.
In their Divisional Round tilt against the heavily-favored Indianapolis Colts, the Steelers emerged victorious when Pro Bowl kicker Mike Vanderjagt missed a game-tying field goal in the waning seconds.
Super Bowl 40? Don’t get us started. The refs absolutely handed that game to the Steelers. Roethlisberger, by the way, completed nine passes for 123 yards, no touchdowns and two picks.
In Super Bowl 43 against the Arizona Cardinals, Roethlisberger was saved by James Hairrison’s game-changing 100-yard pick six, and Santonio Holmes’ once-in-a-lifetime game-winning TD reception.
Having two Hall of Fame coaches in Bill Cowher and Mike Tomlin, an elite defense and all the luck in the world ensured that Roethlisberger retired as a two-time Super Bowl champion.
Unluckiest: Alex Smith
Porous coaching and injuries held back Smith over his first six NFL seasons. Then it all came together when Jim Harbaugh arrived as the 49ers’ new head coach in 2011.
Smith helped the 49ers to 13 wins and a memorable Divisional Round win over the Saints, outdueling Drew Brees in an all-time classic. Smith’s quest for a Super Bowl, however, ended in heartbreaking fashion when Kyle Williams fumbled his punt return in overtime of the 2011 NFC Championship against the Giants.
Smith got off to another strong start in 2012, only to suffer a concussion that opened the door for Colin Kaepernick to take over as the starting QB. The 49ers went on to reach Super Bowl 47, narrowly falling to the Baltimore Ravens.
Smith was then traded to Kansas City, where he spent five years. Despite leading the club to five straight winning seasons and four playoff appearances, the Chiefs decided to draft Texas Tech QB Patrick Mahomes as an eventual replacement.
Smith was traded to Washington in 2018, and Mahomes went on to craft the next Super Bowl dynasty. Smith had Washington in the playoff race by winning six of his 10 starts…only to suffer a gruesome leg fracture that nearly ended his career.
He returned in 2020 and won Comeback Player of the Year honors after leading Washington to the NFC East division title. But sadly, a calf injury forced him to miss the team’s wild-card round game against Tom Brady’s Buccaneers, and Washington fell 31-23 with backup Taylor Heinicke putting up a spirited effort.
Smith retired after the 2020 season, putting an end to a very stellar career that was also filled with incredibly bad luck.
Luckiest: Terry Bradshaw
When you have a 51.9 career completion percentage, 212 touchdowns, 210 interceptions, a career QB rating of 70.9 and four Super Bowl rings…you’re the golden standard of pure football luck.
The Steelers loaded with Hall of Famers and fielded the best defense of all-time — “the Steel Curtain” – during Bradshaw’s prime years. Plus he had Lynn Swann, Franco Harris, Mike Webster and John Stallworth on offense.
As for the whole “luck” aspect? How about the infamous “Immaculate Reception” play? Or Jackie Smith’s drop in Super Bowl 13 that handed the Steelers the Lombardi Trophy on a gold platter against the Cowboys? Or Mike Renfro’s TD that was ruled a “no-catch” in the 1979 AFC Championship Game that propelled Pittsburgh to a win?
Unluckiest: Bernie Kosar
For starters, there was “The Drive” in the 1986 AFC Championship — when John Elway silenced all of Cleveland with a surgical 98-yard TD drive late in the game to force overtime. And of course, the Broncos went on to win that game.
A year later, Earnest Byner’s “fumble” near the goal line cost the Browns the chance to force OT against the Broncos in the AFC Championship Game rematch one year later. I mean, what more did Kosar need to do — considering he threw for 356 yards and three touchdowns in the game known as “The Fumble?”
The only saving grace for Kosar? He won a Super Bowl ring as a backup to Troy Aiman with the Dallas Cowboys in 1993. So there’s that?
Luckiest: Patrick Mahomes
If you wanna go back to Mahomes’ first Super Bowl championship-winning season in 2019…How about the Texans blowing a 24-point lead in the divisional round thanks to Bill O’Brien’s stupid fake punt call?
In Super Bowl 54 against the 49ers, how about all the blown calls that went KC’s way…or Jimmy Garoppolo overthrowing a wide-open Emmanuel Sanders for the go-ahead touchdown?
In Super Bowl 57, how about the tacky holding call against James Bradberry that allowed KC to melt the clock for Harrison Butker’s game-winning field goal?
The 2023 Chiefs? How about Tyler Bass missing a game-tying field goal late in the Divisional Round that sealed the Bills’ fate? Or is Mahomes doing very little while his defense held MVP Lamar Jackson to 10 points in KC’s AFC Championship Game win over the top-seeded Ravens?
In Super Bowl 58, how about the fluky-muffed punt off Darrell Luter Jr. that turned the game around — leading to Kansas City eventually winning in overtime?
Make no mistake – Mahomes is the best player in football. But like Tom Brady, he’s come to learn that a historic amount of luck doesn’t hurt either.
Unluckiest: Philip Rivers
The amount of “classic Chargers” losses that Philip Rivers endured in San Diego and Los Angeles could be written into a novel series. But if we’re strictly focusing on the postseason.
The ‘06 Chargers were the best team in football thanks largely to the efforts of MVP LaDainian Tomlinson. But as everyone knows, the Bolts’ Super Bowl run ended when Marlon McCree FUMBLED after a late Tom Brady interception that would have likely sealed the game.
The Pats recovered, scored the game-tying TD and kicked a late go-ahead field goal. Nate Kaeding missed the game-tying attempt for the Bolts because of course he did.
The 2007 AFC Championship Game? Rivers had to play on a torn ACL. Tomlinson barely played because of a bad knee. Superstar tight end Antonio Gates was a non-factor with a toe injury. The Chargers lost 21-12 despite picking off Tom Brady three times.
2009 looked like the year for the Chargers after finishing 13-3…only to lose to Mark Sanchez’s Jets 17-14 in the Divisional Round. The main culprit? Kaeding again. He missed all three of his field goal attempts in that game.
So now throw in the limitless amount of “Classic Chargers” losses during the regular season, and few had more bad luck than Rivers.
