With December approaching, we now have a firm idea of which teams are legitimate Super Bowl players and which ones aren’t worth trusting when January rolls around.
With that, let’s dive into five legitimate Super Bowl 59 contenders at the midway point of the 2024 season and which ones are pretenders.
Who are this year’s contenders or pretenders for the Super Bowl 59?
Contender: Kansas City Chiefs
Let’s get the obvious out of the way…
Not much more can be said about these guys. They’ve played in six straight AFC Championship Games and four of the last five Super Bowls, winning three of them. They’re aiming to complete the first-ever Super Bowl three-peat.
What’s stopping them? Even without Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and DeAndre Hopkins have been borderline unstoppable together. Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt will be as dangerous of a rushing duo as it gets, too.
To say nothing of Steven Spagnuolo’s defense. They just always make the big plays when it matters most. It’s like Bill Belichick’s old New England Patriots. You just knew the D would make those game-saving stops nine times out of 10. In the Chiefs’ case, it feels like they do it 10 times out of 10.
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And for all those close games that come down to the wire? Let us know if Harrison Butker ever misses a clutch kick. Or if KC’s opponent can make a clutch kick: See Tyler Bass last year or Wil Lutz in Week 10.
The Chiefs don’t always win pretty, but they always find ways to win. Can anyone really be surprised if they pull off the three-peat? Course not!
Pretender: Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings have been one of the league’s biggest surprises this year. Few actually thought they’d compete for a playoff spot, let alone challenge for the NFC’s top seed.
It was hard to envision Sam Darnold becoming a quality starter, given his dismal stints with the New York Jets and Carolina Panthers. We just assumed that rookie JJ McCarthy would eventually replace Darnold behind center and endure some growing pains in a rebuilding year.
When McCarthy had to undergo season-ending knee surgery, it felt like that was it for the Vikings. Of course, Kevin O’Connell’s group had other ideas.
Darnold has put together the best season of his career. Brian Flores’ defense is playing lights-out. Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, TJ Hockenson, and Aaron Jones lead a dynamic set of weapons. What isn’t there to like?
Well for one, we still have issues trusting Darnold. He’s still in the running to finish with the league lead in interceptions. That’s just not gonna cut it in January when the competition gets tougher.
The Vikings also have one of the worst pass defenses in the league. We saw their secondary turn into pumpkins against prolific passing games like the Lions, Packers, and Rams.
And remember the 2022 Vikings, who finished 13-and-4 thanks to a perfect 11-0 record in one-score games? They’re not exactly dominating the competition, either. Five of their first seven wins of 2024 were decided by one possession.
So yeah, pardon us if we’re skeptical about the Vikings. Darnold is still awfully difficult to trust. The defense has to show it can hold its own against elite opponents, and history suggests the luck factor in one-score wins will balance out.
Sorry, Vikings fans, but we don’t buy it.
Contender: Detroit Lions
Allow us to get the second-most obvious entry out of the way while we’re at it…
There’s no question that Dan Campbell’s Lions are the most complete team in the NFC. With statement wins over other playoff contenders in the Packers, Vikings, Texans, and Rams, Detroit is easily the conference’s team to beat.
Regardless of the stats, we’d say they have the best offense in football. Jared Goff is playing like a top-10 QB. They have the best offensive line in football. Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Sam LaPorta, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jameson Williams headline the deepest offensive nucleus in the game, too.
The defense remains a top-10 unit, even without Aidan Hutchinson. You just can’t find a single weakness in this team.
The Lions were a couple of non-self-inflicted mistakes away from upsetting the 49ers in the NFC Championship game and playing in their first Super Bowl. With home-field advantage in their grasp, the Lions are looking at an easy path to the big dance: Two victories at Ford Field against inferior opponents.
It’s all yours if you want it, Lions. Go bite off the kneecaps and get it.
Pretender: Atlanta Falcons
It’s nice to see Kirk Cousins getting a chance to shine with the Falcons. And you gotta be happy for the long-suffering Falcons fans, who finally have a competent quarterback and a playoff-caliber football team.
But like the 2022 and 2023 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, these Falcons do not scream “contender.” Rather, they’re simply the best team in football’s worst division.
The Falcons proved to be several steps behind other contenders like the Pittsburgh Steelers and Kansas City Chiefs. Truth be told, they had that Week 2 road win against the Philadelphia Eagles handed to them.
Atlanta’s defense is also near the bottom in every major category. They can’t rush the passer — with only NINE sacks on D through their first 10 games. Not even a sack per game? Yikes.
Should we mention Cousins’ awful record against teams with winning records? Do you really see Atlanta getting through the gauntlet that is the NFC? They’ll probably be the underdogs in their Wild Card Game, and we’re not sold on them beating superior teams like Philly or Detroit on the road.
Atlanta’s ceiling is a wild card round win. That’s it. They aren’t close to Super Bowl caliber this year.
Contender: Buffalo Bills
We really had to think about this one, believe us. But maybe, just maybe, this is the year it happens for the Bills?
We know, we know. The whole “Classic Bills” thing. 2021 was supposed to be their year. So was 2022. And 2023. And they lost in the Divisional Round all three years.
BUT it just feels like Sean McDermott’s squad is a bit different than the previous teams. For one, the Stefon Diggs headache is long gone. Josh Allen is still playing like Superman without his former All-Pro receiver.
If anything, the offense is better. Instead of feeding Digg, Allen is spreading the ball out to a deeper set of playmakers featuring Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid, and trade deadline pickup Amari Cooper.
James Cook is still a workhorse in the backfield, with understudy Ray Davis providing sufficient depth behind him. The defense is still a top-10 group despite the major offseason makeovers, and no AFC team is feasting off turnovers more than the Bills this year.
It’s easy to write off the Bills because of their well-documented history of choking. But remember how long guys like John Elway and Peyton Manning had to wait to reach the mountaintop? This Bills team is deeper offensively than any other in the Josh Allen era.
And every game against the Chiefs is essentially a coin flip. Eventually, the luck has to balance out and go Buffalo’s way if they meet again in January…right?
Pretender: Houston Texans
The Texans looked like legitimate contenders early when they won six of their first eight games, highlighted by a statement road win over the powerhouse Bills in Week 5.
But the Texans were exposed as frauds with back-to-back losses against Aaron Rodgers’ hapless New York Jets and the Lions in Weeks 9 and 10, respectively. CJ Stroud was sacked 12 times over those two games for crying out loud.
Houston blew leads in both of those games. They were up 16 at halftime against Detroit and were outscored 19-0 in the second half. Frauds, we tell you. Frauds.
Clearly, this offense isn’t the same without Stefon Diggs – who’s done for the year with a torn ACL. The offensive line is in shambles and can’t be trusted to hold up against top pass-rushing units like those of the Chiefs, Steelers, Ravens, or Bills in the postseason.
And don’t be fooled by their strong defensive stats. The Colts have benefited from a laughably weak schedule courtesy of playing in an AFC South featuring three practically unwatchable teams. Wins over the Chicago Bears and New England Patriots? Whoopdie do!
Houston might follow last year’s story and win a Wild Card Game thanks to home advantage, but make no mistake. They have no shot against actual elite opponents in the AFC, not with that o-line and Diggs-less offense.
Contender: Green Bay Packers
The Packers are being overlooked this season, which makes sense, considering they’re merely the third-best team in the NFC North behind the Lions and Vikings. But do you think Matt LaFleur’s group doesn’t like it that way?
Nobody gave the Packers a chance in year one of the post-Aaron Rodgers era last year. Yet all they did was crush the Dallas Cowboys in the Wild Card Round and scare the living daylights out of the 49ers in the Divisional Round, narrowly losing after an awful late Jordan Love interception.
News flash: This year’s Packers are miles better than last year’s group, which was oh-so-close to a final-four appearance.
With all due respect to Aaron Jones, Josh Jacobs has been a considerable upgrade and a total beast in the backfield. Love doesn’t need a No. 1 playmaker, instead distribute the share t o Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Tucker Kraft, and Christian Watson in the passing game.
After years as a “middle of the pack” unit, new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley has turned this group into a top-tier unit. They rank at or near the top 10 in most important categories, including yards allowed, points allowed, and takeaways.
What’s funny is that the Packers have been scarier on the road this year than at Lambeau Field. With the Lions or Vikings taking home the NFC North anyway, the Packers can embrace the “road warriors” title they rode to a Super Bowl 45 title 14 years ago.
The Packers have no clear-cut weaknesses on this roster. They can keep up with any other juggernaut in a shootout or slug out a win in a defensive slugfest. And given their embracing of the underdog mentality, we would hate to play against them in the postseason.
They’re legitimate players for the Super Bowl, ladies and gentlemen.
Pretender: Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals have taken advantage of a surprisingly weak NFC West — heading into their Week 11 bye as winners of four straight following a 2-and-4 start. They can best be summed up as a “Jekyll and Hyde” team, which tells us that they’re not exactly Super Bowl contenders.
Kyler Murray is playing the best football of his career, yes. James Conner, Trey McBride, and rookie wideout Marvin Harrison Jr. have given Murray the best set of playmakers in his young career, too.
But we struggle to trust the Cardinals for obvious reasons. For starters, they’re just too maddeningly inconsistent and lost to the Lions, Bills, Packers, and Washington Commanders — four clear-cut NFL heavyweights.
Yes, they beat the Rams and 49ers. But those two clubs were also without key offensive playmakers, so make of that as you will.
Their defense isn’t necessarily terrible, but they aren’t at or near the top in any significant category. Who on their D is keeping opposing coaches up at night for game film study? Budda Baker and…no one else? That’s what we thought.
Arizona is just tough to trust because of their hot-and-cold play and because of their awful performances against elite competition. They might steal the NFC West or even sneak in as a wild card team, but this group has “one-and-done” written all over them.
Contender: Philadelphia Eagles
Like the Packers, it feels like a ton of folks are sleeping on the Eagles. Is it because you don’t like Nick Sirianni? You think Jalen Hurts is overrated? Or you just can’t get last year/s miserable late-season collapse out of your mind?
Whatever it is, the narratives need to go away. Without question, the Eagles are the Lions’ biggest threat in the NFC.
After a down year in 2023, the defense has emerged as a top-tier unit under new DC Vic Fangio. Rookie stalwarts Cooper DeJean and Quinyon Mitchell have been pure shutdown corners, and the Josh Sweat-Jalen Carter-led pass rush is as scary as almost any other group in football.
Jalen Hurts has returned to his 2022 MVP-like form. DeVonta Smith and AJ Brown are still in the top three receiving tandems. And, oh, that Saquon Barkley guy is only the NFL’s second-best running back after Derrick Henry. Barkley is already the best RB this team has had since LeSean McCoy a decade ago, and that’s a big deal for a team with title aspirations.
It’s hard to find a true weakness on this team. They played in the big game two years ago and probably wouldn’t won if not for a tacky holding penalty call against James Bradberry. With a top-five offense AND defense and plenty of star power, these Eagles are a real threat to win it all this year.
Pretender: Baltimore Ravens
Yes, they have Derrick Henry, who’s well on his way to a third career rushing title. The offense has reached a new level with Lamar Jackson, King Henry, Zay Flowers, and Mark Andrews leading the way. Great stuff.
But we can’t trust these guys because of how hapless their defense is. They truly can’t stop anyone through the air, with football’s worst pass defense. How is that gonna hold up in the playoffs again?
Like, it’s pretty bad when Gardner Minshew and Jameis Winston are dicing up your secondary like onions. It’s bad when Jackson has to put up 28-plus points to beat a mediocre team like the Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, or Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
And we all know the formula for beating Baltimore in the potseason: Get ahead early, take away the run, and force Lamar to pass. He hasn’t been able to win that way in the big games, so yeah.
We love the Ravens’ offense with Henry. But this might be the worst defense John Harbaugh has ever had. How can they win a Super Bowl with a unit that can’t stop a damn thing?
