While many recent first-round picks at quarterback have developed into franchise-changing stars, several of them have already gone down as all-time NFL draft busts.
But on the positive side, several of these not-so-highly-touted QBs who were day two or three picks completely exceeded expectations. And looking back now, it’s impossible to comprehend how they were drafted so late.
So with that all said, let’s take a trip down memory lane by reflecting on the five biggest NFL quarterback draft busts of the last 10 years…as well as the five biggest steals.
Which NFL QB draft bust made the list, and which eventually became steals?
Bust: Zach Wilson
Wilson burst onto the scene out of nowhere in his final season at BYU in 2020, throwing for 3,692 yards and 33 touchdowns against only three interceptions to go along with 10 rushing scores.
Trevor Lawrence was an easy pick at No. 1 overall for the Jacksonville Jaguars in the 2021 NFL Draft, but the New York Jets were beyond thrilled to take Wilson right behind T-Law at No. 2 overall.
Well, it only took two seasons for the Jets to give up on Wilson. He went 8-and-14 as a starter, barely completing over half his pass attempts with 15 touchdowns against 18 interceptions.
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In the 2023 offseason, the Jets traded for Green Bay Packers superstar QB Aaron Rodgers — seemingly signaling the end of Wilson time in the Big Apple. Unfortunately, Rodgers tore his Achilles just minutes into his Jets debut in Week 1, forcing the Jets to go back to Wilson.
Learning behind the four-time MVP for an entire offseason did nothing to help Wilson. He lost seven of 11 starts and had just eight touchdowns against seven picks, taking 46 sacks in just 12 games.
Through his first three seasons, the widely perceived NFL draft bust averaged a woeful 185.1 passing yards per game. So much for the BYU kid emerging as the Jets’ franchise savior…
Steal: Dak Prescott
Entering the 2016 NFL Draft, the Dallas Cowboys already had a Pro Bowl signal-caller in Tony Romo on the roster.
So few bothered to pay much attention when Jerry Jones used his fourth-round pick — 135th overall — on Mississippi State QB Dak Prescott. Surely, Prescott was going to be nothing more than a clipboard holder for the rest of Romo’s years in Big D…right?
Well, the Cowboys were forced to use Plan B — in this case, Prescott — after Romo suffered a broken bone in his back during a 2016 preseason game. Dallas had hoped that Romo would be able to return mid-season, so Cowboy fans could only cross their fingers and hope that Prescott would hold the fort down until then.
Except…Dak played so well that Romo would never start for the Cowboys again.
Prescott guided Dallas to the NFC’s top seed with a 13-3 finish, winning Offensive Rookie of the Year honors after throwing 23 touchdowns against only four interceptions. The Cowboys would fall to the Green Bay Packers in the Divisional Round, but America’s Team had just found its new long-term QB in No. 4.
LIke Romo, Prescott has struggled to find any consistent postseason success. But let’s not forget he was a fourth-round pick. Five playoff appearances, nearly 30,000 passing yards and 202 passing TDs over your first eight NFL seasons? That, folks, is how you build yourself a legacy as an all-time draft steal.
Bust: Mitch Trubisky
The Chicago Bears traded up one spot via the San Francisco 49ers to take North Carolina quarterback Mitch Trubisky second overall in 2017.
The 49ers took Stanford defensive end Solomon Thomas with the No. 3 selection. Needless to say, that draft trade would be a giant flop for both teams.
Trubisky went 29-21-0 as a starting QB over his four years with Chicago, throwing 64 touchdowns against 37 interceptions. Those numbers aren’t bad on paper, but Trubisky was carried by an elite defense and offensive weapons David Montgomery and Allen Robinson.
Trubisky never topped 3,223 passing yards or 24 passing touchdowns in a single season. The Bears moved on from “The Truth” and the NFL draft bust after just four seasons, putting them back at square one for a quarterback.
Chicago infamously took Trubisky over the future face of the league in Patrick Mahomes, whom the Kansas City Chiefs selected at No. 10. Jamal Adams, Christian McCaffrey, Marshon Lattimore, Haason Reddick and Marlon Humphrey were among the future superstars drafted in round one that the Bears passed on.
Steal: Jimmy Garoppolo
Few quarterbacks have been more frustrating to watch over the past decade or so than Jimmy Garoppolo.
But perspective matters here. Remember, Garoppolo was a second-round pick of the New England Patriots — 62nd overall — in 2014. Many even considered that a reach for the Eastern Illinois QB at the time, not to mention that Tom Brady was still at the top of his game.
But folks, Garoppolo won both his starts in 2016 while Brady was suspended for his alleged involvement in Deflategate. And as much frustration as he caused for 49er fans, the fact remains that Jimmy G played a big hand in their rapid turnaround under Kyle Shanahan after coming to the west coast via trade in 2017..
Garoppolo went 38-17-0 as the 49ers’ starting QB. He helped them to a Super Bowl 54 appearance and to the 2021 NFC Championship Games. Yes, he was largely carried by a great supporting cast, but there’s a long list of all-time great QBs who never got to a Super Bowl — let alone two conference title games.
Jimmy G could have remained San Fran’s long-term QB if he didn’t get hit by the injury bug time and time and time again. But the fact remains that he did his part in helping San Fran reach three NFC title games over a four-year span from 2019 to 2022.
And yes, his one-year stint with the Las Vegas Raiders was a flop. But let’s not take away his winning record or accomplishments. Garoppolo wasn’t at all highly-touted when he came into the league in 2014…
And for the Jimmy G haters, we say this: Kiss those two rings he won as Brady’s understudy in New England.
Also read: 10 NFL Stars Who Were Absolutely Horrible At The Combine
Bust: Josh Rosen
The 2018 NFL Draft was headlined by the “big four” QB prospects in Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen and Josh Rosen.
With Baker, Darnold and Allen off the board, the QB-needy Arizona Cardinals traded up into the No. 10 spot via the Oakland Raiders to select Rosen.
The UCLA product lost 10 of 13 starts and had 11 touchdowns against 14 interceptions in his rookie year. Rosen can’t take all the blame, because Arizona did not put much talent around him whatsoever.
Nonetheless, the Cardinals quickly gave up on Rosen and decided to use the first overall pick of 2019 on Kyler Murray. Rosen was subsequently traded to the Miami Dolphins, but Rosen was unable to revive his career there.
Making matters worse about the failed Rosen pick? They passed on future two-time MVP Lamar Jackson and other stars such as Minkah Fitzpatrick, Vita Vea, Derwin James, Jaire Alexander and Calvin Ridley, among others.
Rosen spent the 2021 season as a backup to Matt Ryan in Atlanta. He was on the Cleveland Browns’ and Minnesota Vikings’ practice squads in 2022 but never saw a snap, further solidfying himself as an NFL draft bust.
Rosen went unsigned for the 2023 season, all but assuring that he’ll go down as one of the all-time quarterback busts — even in a deep 2018 QB draft class.
Steal: Derek Carr
As hard as it is to believe now, there were three quarterbacks taken ahead of Carr in the 2014 NFL Draft. Among all the QBs selected that year, Carr was the only one to carve out a career as a consistent starter.
The QBs taken before Carr were Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel and Teddy Bridgewater. The first two were big-time busts, while Bridgewater was mostly a solid backup during his playing career.
The Oakland Raiders selected Carr 36th overall in 2014, hoping he would end their decade-long search for a new franchise QB. For the most part, Carr delivered.
Carr twice led the club to the postseason — in 2016 and 2021. The four-time Pro Bowler also left the organization in 2023 as the Raiders’ all-time passing yards and passing touchdowns leader before signing with the New Orleans Saints.
Carr didn’t win a postseason game in Las Vegas, but context matters. He never had a top-10 defense, and the Raiders went through a ridiculous six coaches with Carr. That included the failed hirings of Jon Gruden and Josh McDaniels, by the way.
Carr was an above-average QB in his nine years with the Raiders despite being held back by inept management, coaching and a mediocre supporting cast. Not half-bad for a second-round pick who was also the fourth signal-caller taken in his class.
Also read: 5 Players From The 2023 NFL Draft That Already Look Like Busts…And 5 That Look Like Superstars
Bust: Daniel Jones
Going into the 2019 NFL Draft, Daniel Jones was widely projected to be a late-first or 2019 second-round draft pick.
So when the New York Giants reached for Jones at No. 6 overall, everybody’s jaws fell to the floor. Nobody else had Jones being a top-10 pick, and the Giants could have traded down to get their guy later for crying out loud!
Anyway, fast forward five years later, and “Danny Dimes” has unfortunately proven to be a massive draft bust. What’s most amazing is how he’s lasted this long with the Giants.
Through his first five NFL seasons, Jones is 22-36-1 as a starter with 62 touchdowns, 40 interceptions and 46 fumbles. He has hit 20 passing TDs in a season once, and that was back in his 2019 rookie year.
After one solid enough year with the G-Men in 2022, Jones was awarded a four-year contract extension worth $160 million. It took just one year for the Giants to be painfully reminded that he’s a mega NFL draft bust who would never hit his ceiling in the Meadowlands.
Steal: Brock Purdy
The 49ers selected Purdy with the final draft pick in 2022 — hence the Mr. Irrelevant nickname.
He was taken in the seventh round with the No. 262 pick. With Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo already on the roster, however, almost nobody bothered to pay much attention to the Purdy pick.
But some strange things transpired that opened the door for Purdy to go from “zero” to “hero” in San Fran. First, Lance suffered an ankle injury in Week 2 that required season-ending surgery, handing the keys back to Garoppolo in the process.
In Week 13, Garoppolo suffered a season-ending foot injury that forced Kyle Shanahan to turn to Purdy. Mr. Irrelevant crushed Tom Brady’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers in his first NFL start and never looked back, finishing the regular season with a perfect 5-and-0 record.
Purdy’s magical run unfortunately ended when he tore his UCL in the 49ers’ NFC Championship Game against the Philadelphia Eagles. With backup QB Josh Johnson also having to leave with a concussion, the 49ers stood no chance.
A year later, Purdy stayed healthy and guided the 49ers to the top record in the NFC after throwing for 4,280 yards and 31 touchdowns. His 49ers went all the way to Super Bowl 58, but they dropped a heartbreaker to the Kansas City Chiefs in overtime.
But the bottom line is that Purdy went from Mr. Irrelevant to…Mr. Totally Relevant. He made the most of his opportunity to shine in the spotlight, already cementing himself as the greatest Mr. Irrelevant in NFL history.
Emerging as a franchise-star level QB after being selected with the very last pick in your class? That’s the ultimate definition of a draft steal, folks.
Bust: Sam Darnold
The Jets traded up from the No. 6 spot via the Indianapolis Colts so they could take Sam Darnold with the No. 3 pick in 2018.
Depending on who you ask, some viewed Darnold as the best all-around prospect in this class — even better than Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. Unfortunately, it just never came together for Darnold, now considered as an NFL draft bust.
In three seasons with the Jets, Darnold went 13-25-0 with a 59.8 completion percentage for 45 touchdowns against 39 interceptions and 20 fumbles. In 2021, he was given a fresh start and traded to the Carolina Panthers with Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore as his go-to weapons.
Darnold was hardly any better in Carolina, though. He was 8-and-9 in 17 starts with a 59.5 completion percentage with 16 touchdowns against as many interceptions with 15 fumbles.
And so…Darnold is basically nothing more than a journeyman backup QB at this phase of his career.
Steal: Jalen Hurts
With Carson Wentz already in place, everyone was shocked when the Eagles used the No. 53 pick on Oklahoma quarterback Jalen Hurts. I mean, why use such an early-round pick on a QB when you already had a $128 million starter in place?
Well, now we see why.
Wentz inexplicably unraveled in his final season with the Eagles in 2020. It got so bad that lame duck head coach Doug Pederson decided to make Hurts his starting QB for Philly’s final four games.
In the offseason, Wentz was traded to the Colts. Hurts, having impressed enough in the short sample size as a rookie, entered 2021 as the Eagles’ starting quarterback.
Hurts had an inconsistent season but did just enough to help the Eagles sneak into the postseason as the No. 7 seed. Fast forward just one year later, and Hurts took his game to a whole new level.
He threw for 3,701 yards and 22 touchdowns against only six interceptions to go along with 760 rushing yards and 13 rushing scores. Hurts finished second in MVP voting behind Patrick Mahomes, whose Chiefs would narrowly defeat Hurts’ Eagles in Super Bowl 57.
Hurts’ career year led to him receiving a mammoth five-year contract extension worth $255 million. Pretty good for a highly-scrutinized second-round draft pick, huh?
Also read: All 32 NFL Teams’ Biggest Draft Bust Who Will Go Down As The Worst Of All-Time
