In football, there are three key ingredients to building up a tasteful Super Bowl recipe: A steady front office, a superstar-level quarterback and of course an innovative mastermind head coach.
The best NFL teams have all three of those. And the worst teams always lack a qualified head coach. No matter who they hire, they just can’t seem to get it right picking the right head boss.
Before we start, we want to clarify that for “worst” coaching changes, we’re focusing on instances where a team fired a good coach and replaced him with a terrible one. You won’t see Urban Meyer on here, because his predecessor, Doug Marrone, had to be replaced.
So without further ado, let’s reflect on the five best NFL head coaching changes of the last 10 years, along with the five worst.
Best: Andy Reid – Kansas City Chiefs (2013)
There’s a good possibility that when Reid’s tenure with the Chiefs ends, this will be the second-best NFL head coaching change in history…behind only Bill Belichick with the New England Patriots.
The Chiefs finished as football’s worst team in 2012 with a 2-14 record, and the Hunt family decided to clean house. Head coach Romeo Crennel and GM Scott Piolo were fired and replaced by Andy Reid and John Dorsey, respectively.
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Reid had just been let go by the Philadelphia Eagles following a 14-year tenure, and KC wasted no time scooping him back up. They also traded for ex-San Francisco 49ers’ starter Alex Smith after he lost his job to Colin Kaepernick — and so began the greatest stretch run in Chiefs’ franchise history.
Since Reid’s arrival, the Chiefs have only had winning seasons. They only missed the playoffs once in 2014. They’ve won every AFC West division crown since 2016, too.
The golden era officially began to peak in 2018 when Patrick Mahomes became the Chiefs’ new starting QB. Together, Reid and Mahomes led KC to five straight AFC title games — all played at home. The Chiefs won the 2019, 2020 and 2022 AFC Championship banners and of course Super Bowls 54 and 57. Mahomes won 2018 and 2022 MVP honors, too.
Reid has been everything the Chiefs could have wanted and then some. With the Patriots’ dynasty long in the rearview mirror, the new NFL golden standard resides in KC — with Reid and Mahomes guiding the ship.
Worst: Matt Patricia – Detroit Lions (2018)
Jim Caldwell led the Detroit Lions to the postseason in 2014 and 2016, not to mention a 9-7 record in 2017.
His .563 winning percentage is tops among all Lions coaches in the Super Bowl era — and only three full-time head coaches in Lions history had a better winning percentage than Caldwell.
But GM Bob Quinn fired Caldwell after four seasons anyway — notably stating that eight to nine wins wasn’t good enough. The Lions then hired longtime Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia as their new head coach.
The move was a disaster from the get-go. Patricia tried running a Belichick-type ship. He ripped a reporter during a presser for “slouching” and needing to show more respect. He infamously showed up to late meetings with players, too.
According to ex-Lions Pro Bowl corner Darius Slay, Patricia also scolded him for working out with other star cornerbacks — telling Slay that he apparently wasn’t on the same level of them.
Incredibly, Patricia got a third season as head coach in 2020 despite recording back-to-back losing seasons. Finally, the Ford family used common sense — a rarity from them, we know — and fired Patricia and Quinn following a 4-7 start.
Patricia’s tenure as Lions head coach ended at 13-29-1. Only the Lions could fire Caldwell and his .563 winning percentage and decide 9-22-1 was good enough for Patricia to get a third year.
Best: Sean McVay – Los Angeles Rams (2017)
The Rams fired head coach Jeff Fisher after losing nine of their first 13 games, and John Fassel finished out the season in Fisher’s place. Fassel went 0-3 in those contests, confirming that the Rams desperately had to look outside for their new head coach.
In 2017, the Rams hired 31-year-old Sean McVay as their new head coach following a seven-year stint as an assistant with Washington. McVay was a little-known commodity at the time, but it didn’t take the guy long to leave his mark.
McVay led the Rams to an NFC West division title with an 11-5 record, ending a 13-year playoff drought in the process. A year later, the 2017 Coach of the Year led the Rams to 13 wins and a trip to Super Bowl 53 — where they fell to the dynastic Patriots.
After two more “meh” seasons from Jared Goff, McVay and the Rams front office went bold by trading for longtime Lions starter Matthew Stafford. Together, McVay, Stafford and Cooper Kupp fronted an offensive juggernaut that led the Lions to a Super Bowl 56 championship — inside their home venue of SoFi Stadium no less.
McVay didn’t suffer his first losing season until 2022 — his sixth year on the job. The Rams have been a steady playoff contender since his arrival — with two NFC championship banners and one Super Bowl to show for it.
Yeah, we’d say this was a successful head coaching change for an organization that had spent more than a decade in irrelevance and mediocrity.
Worst: Adam Gase – New York Jets (2019)
In his first year as New York Jets head coach in 2015, Todd Bowles guided the club to a 10-6 record — but they just narrowly missed out on ending a five-year playoff drought.
The talent on the Jets’ roster shrunk quickly, and the Jets went just 14-34 over the next three years. Bowles was fired and replaced by Adam Gase, who was just coming off a mediocre stint of his own as the Miami Dolphins’ head coach.
The Jets had to fire Bowles after three straight losing seasons, yes, but replacing him with Gase would only set this franchise back even further. Boy did they miss out on this one.
Gang Green had hoped that Gase would help unlock the potential of 2018 third-overall pick Sam Darnold. So what happened?
Well, Gase quickly clashed with GM Mike Maccagnan over his decision to sign running back Le’Veon Bell to a lucrative deal. That led to the Jets firing Maccagnan AFTER the 2019 draft. Classic Jets, we know.
The Jets finished a respectable 7-9 under Gase in 2019 following a 1-7 start. But in 2020, the Jets cratered to a 2-14 record and finished with the league’s worst-scoring offense — averaging only 15.2 points per game. This was a year after they finished as the league’s second-worst scoring offense.
Gase was fired after the season and replaced by Robert Saleh, who’s only done marginally better in Gotham. Like Gase with Darnold, Saleh has failed to develop 2021 second-overall pick Zach Wilson, setting the Jets back even further.
Best: Doug Pederson – Philadelphia Eagles (2016)
In a move that stunned many, the Eagles named Doug Pederson their new head coach following the dismissal of Chip Kelly; with Pat Shurmur finishing out the final game of 2015 as Philly’s interim HC.
Pederson was an Eagles assistant under Andy Reid from 2009 to 2012 and served as KC’s offensive coordinator from 2013 to 2015. That was enough for Philadelphia to go with the route of familiarity by bringing in Pederson to coach Carson Wentz — the No. 2 pick of 2016.
After leading Philly to a solid 7-9 finish in 2016, Pederson cemented his legacy by helping the Eagles to their first-ever Super Bowl championship in the 2017 season over the mighty Patriots.
The Eagles won it all with backup QB Nick Foles following a season-ending injury to Wentz — thanks to Pederson’s gutsy play-calling in the big game — see the “Philly special.” He additionally led the Eagles to a wild card berth in 2018 and to an NFC East division crown in 2019.
Pederson was fired after an ugly 4-11-1 season, but the divorce wound up working for all parties. The Eagles hired Nick Sirianni to replace Pederson, and the former has done wonders working with Jalen Hurts. After one year off, Pederson took the Jacksonville Jaguars’ head coaching position in 2022 and led them to the AFC South division crown.
Bottom line: Three winning seasons, two division titles and a Lombardi Trophy? The Eagles aced it with Coach P, alright.
Worst: Matt Rhule – Carolina Panthers (2020)
The Panthers fired two-time Coach of the Year Ron Rivera after a 5-7 start. Interim Perry Fewell fared even worse with an 0-and-4 finish — prompting owner David Tepper to go big-game hunting for his next head coach.
After quickly rebuilding the struggling Temple and Baylor NCAA programs into winners, Matt Rhule made the jump to the NFL and signed a seven-year deal with the Panthers worth a hefty $62 million.
The Panthers never got anything going under Rhule. They were in the bottom half of scoring offense and defense during his two-years-and-a-bit there. Rhule’s main problem was failing to find a solid QB, as he recycled through Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Darnold, PJ Walker, Cam Newton and Baker Mayfield.
Rhule was fired after a 1-4 start in 2022, ending his tenure with the Panthers at 11-and-27. Interim HC Steve Wilks led Carolina to a 6-6 finish, just narrowly missing out on the NFC South division crown — also an indictment of Rhule’s awful coaching job with the Panthers.
Carolina also struck out on Wilks’ replacement in Frank Reich, who was fired after losing 10 of his first 11 games. Hindsight is 20/20, but what if Carolina gave Riverboat Ron one more year instead of wasting money and time on Rhule… and later on Reich?
Best: Sean McDermott – Buffalo Bills (2017)
McDermott was the Panthers’ defensive coordinator from 2011 to 2016 under Ron Rivera before being hired as the Bills’ new head coach. McDermott replaced Rex Ryan, who was let go late in the 2016 season after going 15-and-16.
McDermott’s Bills were supposed to be rebuilding in 2017, but they instead finished 9-and-7 to end an 18-year playoff drought. After an actual rebuilding year with rookie QB Josh Allen in 2018, McDermott guided Buffalo to a 10-win season and another wild-card berth.
Finally, the Bills kicked it into another gear in 2020. Allen had an MVP-like year and led Buffalo to 13 wins and their first division crown since 1995. The Bills also went to the AFC Championship Game — their first since 1993 — where they fell to the Chiefs.
The Bills have retained their status as an AFC heavyweight, dethroning the Patriots as the new bullies in the AFC East. They again won the division crown in 2021 and 2022, only to suffer heartbreaking Divisional Round losses.
Hey, you know McDermott has done well when the expectations are Super Bowl or bust in Buffalo every year now. Don’t forget where this longtime dysfunctional franchise was before his arrival.
Worst: Josh McDaniels – Las Vegas Raiders (2022)
Jon Gruden resigned from the Raiders in 2021 after a 3-2 start following his disgraceful email scandal. The club decided to promote special teams coordinator Rich Bisaccia to the interim HC position to finish out the year, and the move did wonders alright.
Bisaccia regrouped the Raiders’ locker room amid a dramatic and controversial-filled year, leading the Silver and Black to a 7-5 finish — and to an AFC Wild card berth. After losing to the Cincinnati Bengals in the wild-card round, the Raiders decided to part ways with both Bisaccia and GM Mike Mayock.
Mark Davis’ solution? The good ol’ plucking from the Bill Belichick Patriot Way tree. Longtime New England OC Josh McDaniels was hired as the Raiders’ new head coach, with Patriots executive Dave Ziegler taking on the head coaching position.
McDaniels and Ziegler didn’t even make it to two years. They were fired after a 3-5 start in 2023, finishing their short-lived Raiders tenure with 9-16-0 records. Sure enough, the Raiders came together and started playing much better under interim head coach Antonio Pierce in 2023 — thus highlighting McDaniel’s failures as a head coach.
Best: Kyle Shanahan – San Francisco 49ers (2017)
After failed one-year stints with Jim Tomsula and Chip Kelly, the 49ers finally got it right by hiring Kyle Shanahan. The latter had just helped Matt Ryan win 2016 MVP honors while guiding Atlanta to a Super Bowl 51 appearance…where they infamously choked against the Patriots.
Shanahan needed time to implement his program and get the 49ers going. After consecutive losing seasons in 2017 and 2018, Shanny’s 49ers finally broke out with a 13-win season and trip to Super Bowl 54, where they lost to the Chiefs.
After a lost 2020 season marred by injuries, Shanahan’s 49ers bounced back with consecutive NFC title game appearances in 2021 and 2022. Along with unlocking George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel into all-world stars, Shanahan developed 2022 Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy into the new franchise QB.
The fact they’re an annual title contender again is a testament to Shanahan’s world-class performance as a head coach.
Worst: Jim Tomsula – San Francisco 49ers (2015)
Jim Harbaugh led the 49ers to three straight NFC title game appearances and a trip to Super Bowl 47 over his first three years as head coach. Despite a rash of injuries to key players in 2014, Harbaugh’s squad managed to salvage an 8-8 record.
Unfortunately, the accomplished Harbaugh lost a power struggle to GM Trent Baalke and was let go after the 2014 season. They called it a parting of ways, but it was obviously a firing.
Big-time mistake by the York ownership family to side with Baalke. They wound up replacing Harbaugh with Jim Tomsula, who went 5-11 as their head coach in 2015 before getting canned himself.
‘Least the 49ers hit the jackpot with the Shanahan hire just over a year later…
