Patrick Mahomes vs. Brock Purdy… Super Bowl 58 is here and it’s going to be a good one!
At this point, it is nearly undeniable that the Kansa City Chiefs are this generation’s New England Patriots. Reid / Mahomes has usurped Belichick / Brady and time will tell if they can dislodge their legacy as the top coaching quarterback combo to grace an NFL field.
That said, football is the ultimate team sport and a lot more will go into this year’s Super Bowl than just those two men. Let’s check out five reasons that the Chiefs should win the Super Bowl and five that they no shot.
WIN – Championship Pedigree
At this point, the Chiefs ability to win championships is more than just a fluke, it is a full blown pedigree. That organization has built a culture on the foundation of hard work, strategic acumen, and mental toughness.
This culture has been fostered further and nurtured by their beloved Head Coach Andy Reid and epitomized by players like Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Chris Jones. At this point, the Chiefs have a deep-seated belief in their ability to overcome any challenge, as evidenced by the way they turned this season reason around when al lseemed lost. The experience of winning a Super Bowl has provided the Chiefs with invaluable lessons in the level of play required to succeed at the highest level and these lessons that have become part of the team’s DNA and may well result in them winning the Super Bowl this year.
LOSE – Weak Against the Run
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San Francisco’s rushing attack is renowned for its complex scheme and impressive play-calling. Furthermore, the 49ers possess serious depth in the backfield, which presents a unique challenge. Oh, and they have Christian McCaffrey who can be a one man band at the NFL level, which is preposterous.
The 49ers have excelled at using misdirection, zone schemes, and pre-snap motion to create advantageous matchups and open running lanes. Their ability to rotate fresh legs into the game can wear down defenses over four quarters and if the Chiefs defense has had any weakness so far this year, that has been it.
The Chiefs will need to adapt, remain disciplined, and rise to the challenge if they want to secure a Super Bowl win.
WIN – The Chiefs Defense is Legit
As the Chiefs advance through the final round of the NFL playoff gauntlet, the importance of their improved defensive unit cannot be overstated. In a league where offense often grabs the headlines, Kansas City’s defense has proven that it can be just as critical to the team’s success. After all, it was the defense that kept the team afloat all season long—and, frankly, it was the defense that helped seal the deal against the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game.
Everyone knows Chris Jones, but there have been a number of players that have emerged as stars in that group, namely L’Jarius Sneed, who was able to essentially single-handedly deliver a knockout punch against the Ravens.
What used to be a liability for Kansas City is now, arguably, its greatest asset and may very well be the reason they win the Big Game.
LOSE – Pressure of Expectations
The Kansas City Chiefs set out on a mission to repeat as Super Bowl champions in the 2023-2024 NFL season and the media and fans alike seemed to think that they had the chops to do it, as many pegged them as the favorites to win it all. After all, their roster was loaded with talent and they had the right coaching staff to scheme them into high-success scenarios. And of course, last year’s Super Bowl victory loomed large, so needless to say the expectations were sky-high heading into the year.
Throughout the early phases of the season, it looked like that pressure might be getting to Kansas City, as their performance was somewhat inconsistent. They have largely righted the ship in recent weeks, but there is still work to be done—and there is legitimate reason for concern that the pressure to repeat may bubble over just as they are on the precipice of achieving their goal.
WIN – Patrick Mahomes' Elite Playmaking
Let’s start off with an obvious one. Patrick Mahomes is undisputedly the best quarterback in the game today and as mentioned before, he may very well go down as the best to ever do it one day. The quarterback’s skillset has extensibility that spans far beyond dual-threat, as his unique blend of arm strength, accuracy, and improvisational skills, is a game-changer.
Mahomes cannot only sling it with the best of them, but also, he has the rare ability to extend plays and turn potential losses into huge chunk plays, which can turn the momentum of a game on a dime. And if the physical skillset wasn’t enough, Mahomes’ leadership and performance in clutch moments have consistently propelled the Chiefs to success, making them a daunting challenger as long as number 15 is on the field.
LOSE – Offensive Line Breaks Down
While the Kansas City Chiefs may have made it to the Super Bowl again, this year’s path was far more up-and-down than years past. And, shockingly, the obvious was a significant reason why—specifically the offensive line.
If things go awry on Super Bowl Sunday, don’t be shocked if the o-line is to blame, similar to what we saw play out back in 2021 when the Chiefs were unseated by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers nasty defensive front. Kansas City’s offensive line has faced challenges this year in protecting Mahomes, especially against the better pass-rushing teams in the league, which the 49ers happen to be. Injuries and lapses in pass protection could expose Mahomes to pressure, disrupting the Chiefs’ offensive rhythm, and putting the Super Bowl victory at risk.
WIN – Steve Spagnuolo
Steve Spagnuolo has reestablished himself this year as one of the preeminent defensive minds in the game. Spagnuolo’s greatest strengths is his adaptability. He shows a rare willingness to make in-game adjustments, whether it’s shifting coverages or altering pass-rush strategies, he is always re-strategizing to ensure that the Chiefs’ defense remains one step ahead of the opposition. This flexibility could pay off in spades during the Super Bowl, as Kyle Shanahan will be playing a chess game of his own.
LOSE – Slow Start
Throughout the season and in previous year’s playoff games, the Chiefs have shown a tendency for slow starts, even in big games. Obviously, they have all the firepower they need to orchestrate a comeback—and, well, they’ve proven they can do that effectively time and time again…
But falling behind early against a team like the 49ers, who excel at dominating the flow with their rushing attack and controlling the game tempo, could place Kansas City in a difficult position where a comeback might be too tall of a task. Getting off to a fast start on Super Bowl Sunday will be critical.
WIN – Major Advantage in Special Teams
While much has been made about the disparity between Kansas City’s quarterback compared to the 49ers, it may ultimately come down to a battle of the two teams’ special team units. The margin in games like this can be that thin. The Chiefs’ special teams, under the guidance of Dave Toub, have shown marked improvement, especially down the stretch of the year.
The Chiefs ace in the hole may be Harrison Butker, who is a pro’s pro—and is extremely accurate, even from long range, which will likely be crucial in what many expect to be a close game. And when you factor in the inconsistencies in San Fran with Jake Moody kicking, well, that could be a major advantage for Kansas City.
Additionally, their punt and kickoff coverage teams have done well all season to limit their opponents’ return yards, which may go underappreciated, but is absolutely critical in winning the field position battle and ultimately the game.
LOSE – The Wide Receivers Strike Again
Throughout the 2023-2024 season, the Chiefs’ wideouts have been a massive subject of discussion. In recent weeks, they have experienced moments of brilliance, albeit with periods of drop-offs in performance, but this season was far from simple for that group. Issues with dropped passes in crucial situations have emerged as a concerning pattern. These drops not only stifle drives but also squander opportunities to capitalize on Mahomes’ playmaking abilities, putting additional pressure on the offense to overcome self-inflicted setbacks.
Luckily for Kansas City they’ve finally rid themselves of the disease that is Kadarius Toney, so at least they have that going for them… But I don’t think that anyone will be shocked if that when push comes to shove, a mistake from the KC receiving corps ends up costing them the big game.
