The NFL playoffs have always sparked debate about whether securing a No. 1 seed truly gives a team a leg up. With the shift from a 12-team to a 14-team playoff format in 2020, the stakes have risen significantly.
Let’s break down how this change has impacted the importance of the top seed, whether the first-round bye still holds its weight, and how recent history paints the picture for this year’s contenders.
The Single Bye Week In NFL Playoffs
Before 2020, the top two seeds in each conference enjoyed a first-round bye, but now only the No. 1 seed gets that luxury. This alteration puts even more emphasis on finishing at the very top during the regular season. Home-field advantage remains critical, but the week of rest exclusively for the No. 1 seed has become a massive bonus.
The NFL also continues to reseed for the divisional round, ensuring the No. 1 seed plays the lowest remaining seed. This setup further enhances their advantage, making their path to the Super Bowl as favorable as possible.
The Results Speak: No. 1 Seeds Since 2020
Since the NFL playoff expansion, 50% of No. 1 seeds have reached the Super Bowl. However, only one has emerged victorious. Here’s the breakdown:
| Year | Conference | Team | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | AFC | Chiefs | Lost, Super Bowl |
| 2020 | NFC | Packers | Lost, Conference Round |
| 2021 | AFC | Titans | Lost, Divisional Round |
| 2021 | NFC | Packers | Lost, Divisional Round |
| 2022 | AFC | Chiefs | Won, Super Bowl |
| 2022 | NFC | Eagles | Lost, Super Bowl |
| 2023 | AFC | Ravens | Lost, Conference Round |
| 2023 | NFC | 49ers | Lost, Super Bowl |
Notably, the Chiefs have carried the torch for AFC No. 1 seeds, making the Super Bowl twice and winning one. For the NFC, No. 1 seeds have reached the Super Bowl twice but have come up short both times.
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Also Read: Is The NFL Considering A New Playoff Format For 2025?
Why The No. 1 Seed Holds The Edge
The expanded format has increased the significance of being the top seed. Here are some key reasons:
- Exclusive Bye Week: With no week off for the No. 2 seed anymore, the top-seeded team gets a massive advantage in terms of rest and preparation. This is especially critical in a grueling NFL season.
- Home-Field Advantage: No. 1 seeds get home games throughout the conference playoffs, which historically boosts their chances of winning.
- Path to the Super Bowl: Facing the lowest-seeded opponent in the divisional round further tilts the odds in their favor.
Updated Super Bowl odds for the remaining playoff teams 🏆 pic.twitter.com/HSJ2agf0F9
— PFF (@PFF) January 17, 2025
Historical data supports the dominance of top seeds. Since seeding began in 1975, 26 of the 49 Super Bowl winners (53.1%) have been No. 1 seeds. By contrast, No. 2 seeds have won only 10 times (20.4%), and none have even reached the Super Bowl since the 14-team playoff format began.
No. 2 Seeds Struggle In The New Playoff Format
The removal of a first-round bye for No. 2 seeds has severely diminished their chances. Without the extra week of rest, these teams now face tougher roads, and none have reached the Super Bowl since the format’s introduction. This underscores the gap in advantages between the top two seeds under the 14-team system.
Trends Since 2002: Consistency Despite Change
From 2002 to 2019, during the 12-team playoff era, 50% of No. 1 seeds reached the Super Bowl. Interestingly, this percentage has remained the same under the new format. However, the added exclusivity of the bye week in the 14-team playoffs highlights the growing gap between the top seed and the rest of the field.
The 2025 Outlook: Lions And Chiefs In The Game
As the 2025 NFL playoffs approach, the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs are strong candidates to secure the No. 1 seeds. Both teams have been dominant in the regular season, and history suggests they’re in a prime position to make a deep run. With New Orleans hosting the Super Bowl, there’s a high probability one of these top seeds will play for the championship.
There has never been a team that's won three consecutive Super Bowls 🤯
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) January 16, 2025
Will the Chiefs be the first, or will they come up short? pic.twitter.com/7Js1Anzctq
The expanded playoffs have only amplified the importance of the No. 1 seed. Teams that secure the top spot not only get a crucial week off but also benefit from home-field advantage and a favorable playoff path. While not a guaranteed ticket to a Super Bowl victory, history shows that finishing as the No. 1 seed significantly boosts a team’s chances of success. As the 2025 playoffs unfold, the Lions and Chiefs will look to capitalize on their positions and prove why being the top dog still matters.
Also Read: How Do NFL Playoffs Work? Everything You Need To Know
