When you look at some of the top selections of the 2023 draft, it doesn’t take long to pick out the best fits. Bryce Young in Carolina, Christian Gonzalez in New England, Jaden Carter in Philadelphia, Quentin Johnston with the Bolts, and so on.
But there are a handful of big-named prospects who, despite their ultra-high ceilings, aren’t in a good spot to produce right away. A variety of factors are working against them. And because of that, we shouldn’t expect much in year one.
Here are 10 NFL rookies who are caught in horrible situations heading into their first professional season.
Hendon Hooker
This enticing prospect was widely expected to be a late first or early-to-mid second-round pick. But surprisingly, the dual-threat sensation out of Tennessee wasn’t taken until round three – 68th overall – by the Detroit Lions.
For Hooker’s sake, we were hoping he’d go to a team with a lame-duck QB…where he could sit for a year and then take over the offense. Think of Kirk Cousins in Minnesota or Ryan Tannehill in Tennessee — two ageing QBs with limited ceilings who are entering their contract years.
Even a QB-needy team like the Atlanta Falcons, Washington Commanders or Tampa Bay Buccaneers would have been perfect for the Volunteers product.
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Instead, Hooker lands with a Detroit team that seems committed to Jared Goff — and understandably so. With a top-tier offensive line and playmaking weapons Jameson Williams, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery in the fold, Goff is in a great position to have his best season yet with Detroit.
If Goff continues to play well, the Lions won’t be in a rush to turn to Hooker.
Let’s face it. There’s a real high chance Hooker will never get his chance to shine in Motor City. Not if Goff continues to excel in Dan Campbell’s system.
Zay Flowers
The Ravens had no choice. They HAD to take a wide receiver in round one after finally agreeing to a long-term contract extension with Lamar Jackson. But by no means does it mean Flowers is in a good position to shine in Baltimore.
For one, the Ravens are a rush-first offense. Even if they try to pass more in order to keep Jackson healthy, a strong ground game has always been in their DNA – plain and simple.
Secondly, star tight end Mark Andrews is the go-to pass-catcher in this offense. Thirdly, the Ravens signed former Pro Bowler Odell Beckham Jr. — who should have some quality football left in the tank.
And fourthly, 2021 first-rounder Rashod Bateman may finally break out if he too can stay healthy.
So Flowers stands a high chance of being the team’s No. 4 pass-catcher in year one. Throw in Baltimore’s deep set of running backs, and there simply won’t be room for the speedy Flowers to get many touches in this offense.
If he landed in a pass-happy offense with a need for a true number two wideout, like the Minnesota Vikings, Buffalo Bills or Los Angeles Chargers? Then Flowers would be in a greater position to succeed right away.
This is nothing against Flowers, the player. The concern is the fact that he landed in an offense that isn’t quite built to allow their wide receivers to flourish — as evidenced by the Ravens’ inability to develop their other first-round wideouts from recent years.
Will Flowers be the outlier? Or will he follow in the footsteps of guys like Bateman, Marquise “Hollywood” Brown and Breshad Periman, all of whom failed to live up to those high, round-one expectations in Baltimore?
Paris Johnson Jr.
Truth be told, whoever was taken by the Arizona Cardinals in round one would not be in a favorable position. To be perfectly frank, this is the worst roster from top to bottom in terms of talent.
So, no offense to Paris Johnson Jr., but being Arizona’s top pick automatically puts him on this list. There’s no concern about his talent level and the impact he can make in the trenches, but he’s not at all in a favorable position to succeed at the start of his career.
Arizona has one of the NFL’s worst offensive lines, with zero starters close to Pro Bowl caliber. Yes, Kyler Murray has the ability to scramble away from pressure and mask some of the pass protection issues in Arizona.
But he’s going to miss a large portion of 2023 recovering from surgery on his torn ACL. Now what? Johnson Jr. has to block for Colt McCoy? With zero true studs supporting him on that o-line? … On a team that figures to be trailing often, thus allowing opposing defenses to send all sorts of exotic blitzes Johnson’s way once Arizona is in obvious passing situations?
What can we say? Johnson Jr. is going to have a long and frustrating rookie year. He better be ready for it.
Marvin Mims
Oklahoma wideout Marvin Mims was a good value pick for the Denver Broncos at No. 63 overall…but fans in Mile High City should hold their horses. He’s unlikely to be much of a factor in year one.
Denver already has two star wideouts in Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton. After back-to-back 700-yard seasons in 2020 and 2021, Tim Patrick unfortunately suffered a season-ending ACL tear before the 2022 campaign started. If healthy, Patrick will also be a candidate for a top two role in Denver.
Javonte Williams and free agent pickup Samaje Perine are also sure to see plenty of carries in Sean Payton’s offense. And even at tight end, Denver has three productive guys in Greg Dulcich, Adam Trautman and Albert Okwuegbunam.
Mims was a good long-term pick for Denver. But the kid will be anxious to get on the field and produce right away. And it’s going to be tough to win those targets away from Jeudy, Sutton and Patrick. Not to mention the three tight ends and two running backs atop the Broncos’ depth chart.
Tucker Kraft
The Green Bay Packers made the curious choice to take tight ends Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft with the No. 42 and No. 78 picks, respectively. In between those two selections, Green Bay took Michigan State wideout Jayden Reed 50th overall.
So Kraft is joining a Green Bay offense that no longer has Aaron Rodgers, for starters. He’s simply the second tight end now in a Matt LaFleur offense that RARELY features tight ends in the passing game.
The Packers are sure to run the ball a lot more with the duo of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. They also have a pair of promising young wideouts in Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs.
So…Kraft has a lot of guys to jump ahead of in the pass-catching depth chart. Not to mention Green Bay is going from Rodgers to the totally unproven Jordan Love. How is Kraft supposed to make an impact in this offense?
We’re not sure, which is why he landed on this list. Good luck figuring it out, kid.
Lukas Van Ness
Color us surprised when the Green Bay Packers took Van Ness with the No. 13 selection in this year’s draft. They could have taken a top wideout for Jordan Love or a new offensive tackle to take over for the soon-to-be-gone David Bakhtiari.
But nope. They settled on Iowa defensive end slash outside linebacker Lukas Van Ness…even though the front seven is the least of Green Bay’s concerns right now. They already have four stud linebackers in De’Vondre Campbell, Preston Smith, Quay Walker and Rashan Gary.
Veteran Kenny Clark and 2022 first-rounder Devonte Wyatt are also capable playmakers on the defensive line. So our question is this: Whether it’s linebacker or defensive end…where exactly does Van Ness fit on this depth chart?
If Van Ness went to a team with a pressing need for edge rush help like the Falcons, Las Vegas Raiders, Cincinnati Bengals or Minnesota Vikings, he’d be in a tremendous position to succeed right away.
But in Green Bay? Hard to draw a path for Van Ness to get much playing time in Wisconsin.
Kendre Miller
The New Orleans Saints signed 2022 rushing touchdowns leader Jamaal Williams to complement do-it-all star Alvin Kamara. But with Kamara likely to miss games in 2023 to suspension, it made sense for the Saints to take another quality back in the middle rounds.
With the No. 71 selection, they took TCU running back Kendre Miller — who will definitely get his fair share of carries with Kamara out. But once Kamara returns? Miller falls down to No. 3 on the depth chart.
That’s not ideal considering the Saints should be a pass-heavy offense with newcomer Derek Carr now leading the group. And then you throw in Michael Thomas, Chris Olave and Juwuan Johnson in the passing game…and Miller is what? Like their No. 6 option on offense?
There’s no denying Miller’s skill set. And the Saints have a long history of making it work with just about any running back. But as explosive as Miller can be, he’s just not going to move ahead of Williams and Kamara on the depth chart. The workload won’t be there for him to make an impact in year one. So all you fantasy footballers can probably cross him off your boards right about now.
Cam Smith
Considering that Smith was widely projected to be a first-round pick? Yeah, the Miami Dolphins found great value when they landed him in round two at No. 51 overall.
Good for Miami. But for Smith…? Mehhh not great…especially if he was hoping to play early and often as a rookie. The Dolphins already had one of the game’s elite corners in Xavien Howard.
Then, weeks before the draft, they acquired All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey from the Los Angeles Rams in a blockbuster move. Even undrafted rookie Kader Kohou impressed in 2022 and should improve as a sophomore.
So it’s going to be hard for Smith to land himself a starting job right away in South Beach. Miami has two proven superstars in Howard and Ramsey plus a promising youngster in Kohou. If Smith went to a corner-needy team like the Vikings, Raiders, Detroit Lions or Houston Texans, then we’d love the fit for him.
Smith has the physical tools and football IQ to be an impact player right away. But he’s most likely going to have to accept a backup role in year one. Not ideal for a guy who would probably be an immediate starter on most other teams.
Jayden Reed
Sorry to pick on the Packers here, but such is life when you don’t have Aaron Rodgers commanding your offense anymore.
Y’know what we said earlier about Tucker Kraft? Much of it also applies here to Jayden Reed.
In his 2021 season at Michigan State, Reed went off for 1,026 yards and 10 touchdowns. This deep threat specialist averaged a whopping 17.4 yards per reception and also dazzled as a special teams return man.
We’re not deeming Reed a bust by any means. Nope. We know Green Bay’s history of finding stud receivers outside of round one — it’s a long list that includes names like Davante Adams, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and Gregg Jennings, just to name a few.
But Reed is unlikely to overtake Christian Watson or Romeo Doubs as one of Green Bay’s two leading receivers. And we still don’t know what the Pack have in Jordan Love, so let’s hold the phone on the Reed hype.
Let’s give him a year or two to find his footing at the NFL level – and let’s make sure Love is actually the guy first. But as it currently stands, Reed isn’t at all in a spot to produce as a rookie.
Zach Charbonnett
We thought the Seattle Seahawks had one of the best draft hauls this year, but there is one big question mark with GM John Schneider’s decision-making here.
Seattle already found a gem in Kenneth Walker III in the second round a year ago. So why would the ‘Hawks bother to use a second-round pick on 2022 first-team all-American and UCLA running back Zach Charbonnet?
Despite missing two games last year, Walker racked up 1,050 rushing yards and nine touchdowns. And this was in a more pass-heavy Seattle offense that added Jaxon Smith-Njigba to a group that already has Geno Smith, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
So, how exactly is Charbonnett supposed to go off here as a rookie when Seattle is a pass-first offense that already has a potential top-five running back on its roster? Even 2020 fourth-rounder DeeJay Dallas could enjoy a career year if Pete Carroll gives him the ball more.
It’s just hard to understand why Seattle would take another running back so early. If Carroll wanted to use a two-running back system, we’d get it. But drafting Smith-Njigba is a firm indicator they’re going to throw the ball more than ever.
Charbonnet would have been far better off landing with a team that doesn’t have a clear-cut number one running back. Instead, he goes to a star-studded Seattle offense that already has a potantial future rushing champion in Walker.
Not ideal for a guy of Charbonnet’s skill set.
