We know NOTHING is guaranteed in the NFL, but this year’s draft features several marquee talents who almost feel like sure-bets to succeed.
Caleb Williams, Marvin Harrison Jr., Rome Odunze and Brock Bowers are just several grade-A prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft class who are virtual locks to emerge as superstars in the NFL.
On the flip side, however, several highly-touted prospects and early-round picks carry too much bust potential. And whichever teams take the chances on these guys better be prepared for the strong possibility of failure.
So with that, let’s dive into the top 10 2024 NFL draft prospects that are likely to go down as busts.
Which 2024 NFL Draft prospects have the highest probability of becoming future busts?
Michael Penix Jr.
The Washington Huskies product is considered in the third “tier” of quarterback prospects for the 2024 NFL Draft.
Caleb Williams is alone in tier one, with Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, and JJ McCarthy in tier two. Barring any epic surprises, all of those guys are top-10 picks.
Click on ‘Follow Us’ and get notified of the most viral NFL stories via Google! Follow Us
But Penix Jr. is a tougher projection here. Will a desperate team reach for him? Will he unexpectedly fall like Will Levis last year? Or will a club trade up late in round one to get their guy?
Regardless, Penix Jr. carries a giant “bust” potential that should have teams staying away — at least in round one.
For starters: The injury history. Penix Jr. had season-ending injuries in each of his four years at Indiana, including two ACL tears. A player with that much damage to his body before he turns pro will always be worrisome, fair or not.
Secondly, Penix Jr. plays an ultra-aggressive style of play that may not translate over at the NFL level. He had 36 touchdowns and 11 picks last year, and Penix Jr. doesn’t exactly have the mobility and rushing skills to avoid trouble like most young QBs.
Penix’s best weapon is his deep arm. But you can’t just air it out video-game style and expect consistent success. Penix Jr. still has accuracy issues and often struggles when opposing defenses force him to settle on the short passes.
Add it all up, and Penix just feels like a big-time NFL draft bust waiting to happen.
Xavier Worthy
Worthy turned heads when he ran a 40-yard dash time of 4.21 seconds, breaking the record set by John Ross back in 2017.
But speed alone does not guarantee success at the NFL level. I mean, just look at John Ross himself. Or Marquise Goodwin. Or Rondel Menendez.
Worthy’s main concern is his lighter 5-11, 165-pound frame. With limited size, he’s going to struggle with contested catches. This isn’t Madden, where you can just run straight vertical routes and blast by defenders.
Bigger and more physical corners will be able to jam him at the line of scrimmage and disrupt Worthy’s timing. And if his speed becomes too much of an issue for opposing defenses, they’ll just play a safety over the top.
Worthy’s Texas teammate, Adonai Mitchell, has the ideal size at 6-foot-4 and 196 pounds to destroy opposing defenders — especially in the red zone. Mitchell is a MUCH SAFER pick than Worthy, who feels like too much of a bust risk for NFL teams to draft early.
Chop Robinson
Robinson will most certainly be a first-round pick thanks to his incredible athleticism. But take a deeper dive into the player, you’ll see why he seems too risky for a team to select in round one.
For those who think sacks tell the story, consider that Robinson only had four over his two years at Penn State, and all four came last season alone.
Though he’s listed at 6-foot-3 and 250 pounds, Robinson isn’t as powerful a rusher as you might think.
He struggled to win his one-on-one matchups against considerably bigger offensive linemen on pass-rushing snaps. And that’s going to be a problem at the NFL, where the competition is miles harder.
For Robinson, it’s pivotal that he lands in the right system on a team with several elite pass-rushers. For example, the Pittsburgh Steelers, San Francisco 49ers, Dallas Cowboys or Kansas City Chiefs.
But Robinson is not built to be a one-man wrecking crew in the NFL. The size and strength issues are too difficult to overlook, and teams looking to bolster their pass rush would be better off taking a more polished prospect that doesn’t carry the “boom-or-bust” label.
Tyler Guyton
The 2024 NFL Draft is loaded with elite offensive line prospects — namely Joe Alt, Olu Fashanu, Troy Fautanu and Taliese Fuaga, among others.
Oklahoma’s Tyler Guyton is also widely projected to be a first-round pick—and for good reason: He was phenomenal in the passing game for the Sooners and has a hulking 6-foot-8, 322-pound frame.
But Guyton’s struggles in the run-blocking department certainly aren’t being overlooked by scouts. For a man of his size, Guyton struggles considerably in run-blocking, and his unusually large frame has made it hard for him to handle smaller, quicker and more athletic pass-rushers.
And the sample size is small. Guyton only started 14 games for Oklahoma. There’s limited tape to go off of, so you can’t read too much into his dominance as a pass-blocker.
Guyton is fine as a second-round pick, but a team who takes a chance on him in round one will be setting themselves up for drastic disappointment. Don’t say we didn’t warn you.
Also read: Re-Drafting The First-Round Of The Stacked 2021 NFL Draft
Joe Milton III
Milton put together a career year in his final collegiate season with the Tennessee Volunteers.
The 6-foot-5, 235-pound Milton completed 64.7 percent of his pass attempts for 2,813 yards and 20 touchdowns against only five interceptions. The dual-threat QB also rushed for 2999 yards and seven touchdowns.
It’s oh too easy for teams to become enamored with big, athletic two-way QBs like Milton. But for every Cam Newton, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, there’s a guy like Marcus Mariota, Tim Tebow or Robert Griffin III.
The issue is that Milton has major accuracy problems, especially with deep balls. He struggles with his reads and oftentimes tries to get too cute instead of throwing the ball away or taking the short passes the defense are giving him.
Milton just doesn’t have the football IQ or accuracy down — at least not yet — to shine in the professionals. He might be a decent backup in this league, but his build and athleticism should not fool QB-needy teams at the NFL draft.
He’ll be drafted way earlier than he should, because QB is the most important position in the game. But Milton offers a very limited ceiling with too many question marks that lead us to believe he won’t flourish as a starter in the NFL.
Xavier Legette
Legette burst onto the scene in his fifth and final season at South Carolina, racking up 71 receptions for 1,255 yards and seven touchdowns.
Spencer Rattler essentially lived and died by his connection with Legette, though. After the big-bodied receiver, the Gamecocks’ next leading pass-catcher was Trey Knox with only 37 receptions for 312 yards and two touchdowns.
So for starters, Legette wasn’t really competing with anybody else for targets. Make of that as you will.
The main issue with Legette, though, is his lack of burst at the line of scrimmage and his limited route tree. He can run the verticals and use his big frame to win contested catches, but he doesn’t work the middle of the field and the sidelines as well as other top receivers in this class.
Teams always need receiving help, so Legette’s limited skill set is going to be overlooked.
His eye-popping numbers with Rattler will also jump out to starters, but whoever drafts Worthy better view him as a decent No. 2 NFL receiver AT BEST. He simply doesn’t have enough in his route tree to be a true No. 1 receiver.
So allow us to conclude our Legette entry with these two words: Buyer beware.
Bralen Trice
Michael Penix Jr. isn’t the only Washington product who has plenty of hype but also…a very high probability of flopping at the NFL level.
As everyone saw in the Huskies’ national championship game loss to the Michigan Wolverines, the defense was not Washington’s strength. But Bralen Trice was an exception, having tallied 17 sacks over the 2022 and 2023 seasons.
As we saw with his 4.72 40-yard dash time at the combine, Trice is limited in speed and quickness. He’s not like TJ Watt, Von Miller or Nick Bosa where he can immediately burst off the edge and get to the QB within a matter of seconds.
Trice is also one-dimensional as an edge rusher because his run defense leaves a lot to be desired. That’s not ideal for his stock when you consider how many other linebackers are more well-rounded than the 245-pound Trice.
If Trice is a round-two NFL draft pick, then we get it. After round one, you gotta take some gambles and bet on a player’s upside. But if he goes on day one, it’ll just be a giant mistake.
The physical tools and athleticism are limited, so NFL GMs need to look at pass-rushers in round one. By taking Trice too early, they’ll just be placing themselves in a place of future regret.
Amarius Mims
Remember what we said about Michael Penix Jr. being a concern because of his injury history in college? It’s a similar deal here with Georgia offensive tackle Amarius Mims.
On one hand, it’s easy to fall in love with a 6-foot-8, 340-pound offensive tackle. And when you consider that Mims didn’t give up a single sack in 364 offensive snaps over the 2022 and 2023 seasons, per Pro Football Focus, it’s easy to see why Mims is a likely first-round pick.
Mims, however, only started eight games during his tenure at Georgia. He battled ankle injuries in 2023 and saw just 297 offensive snaps. So the “no sacks allowed” should be mentioned in air quotation marks since it’s a small sample size.
Mims also has plenty of work for improvement in run-blocking, which is also concerning when you consider that the Bulldogs featured a rush-heavy offense.
And we’d like to point out that Mims had the luxury of playing on one of football’s best offensive lines. Yanno, a unit that featured 2023 first-round pick Broderick Jones and Sedrick Van Pran-Granger — one of the top center prospects in this class.
So yeah, take Mims’ production in college with a grain of salt. We wish the best of luck to whichever team takes the calculated risk in betting on his upside when the bust potential is all too high for our liking.
Cooper DeJean
DeJean has the physical tools you look for in a pure shutdown cornerback. He’s got the size at just over 6 feet and 203 pounds. DeJean had seven interceptions over the 2022 and 2023 seasons, securing his reputation as a dangerous ball-hawker.
But context also matters here. DeJean’s Iowa Hawkeyes had a relatively easy schedule, and he really didn’t have to face too much elite competition. Iowa was outscored 92-0 in games against ranked teams last year — including the Citrus Bowl vs. Tennessee.
So we don’t really know how DeJean will hold up against the best receivers in the world. Also, his aggressive ball-hawking skills might not translate well over to the NFL level. I mean, Trevon Diggs racks up the picks and pass breakups for the Dallas Cowboys, but he also gets burned aplenty in coverage.
DeJean will most likely be a first-round NFL draft pick, but the risks and red flags are too great here. Whoever takes DeJean better be prepared for the strong possibility that he’ll go down as a massive bust, similar to recent former first-round picks like Jeff Okudah and CJ Henderson.
Keon Coleman
Coleman went off after transferring over to Florida State University, posting 50 receptions for 658 yards and 11 touchdowns.
But here’s a case of stats not telling the whole story…
He has a reputation as a deep threat, but Coleman doesn’t have the game-changing speed you look for in today’s wide receivers. His 4.61 40-yard dash time wasn’t exactly inspiring, for starters.
Secondly, Coleman is basically an all-or-nothing guy. He makes highlight-reel contested catches, but the consistent week-to-week production isn’t there. Consider him like the 2022 and 2023 versions of Pittsburgh Steelers star George Pickens.
Also, Coleman’s production took a considerable dip after the Seminoles lost starting QB Jordan Travis late in the year with a gruesome leg fracture.
The ceiling is high, sure. But it feels like Coleman won’t be that productive in the NFL unless he’s paired with an elite QB like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow or Justin Herbert.
And given Coleman’s limitations, why would a team with an elite QB take a chance on a risky prospect like the FSU standout when there are so many other polished receivers to choose from?
We advise all 32 GMs to stay away from Coleman until the mid or late-part of the second round. But you just know somebody is going to reach for him. All it takes is one.
Also read: 2024 NFL First-Round Mock Draft For All 32 Picks: 11.0! (With Blockbuster Trades)
