ESPN analyst Mel Kiper Jr. is one of the most respected sports personalities in the United States. People go gaga over his NFL draft analysis, insights, predictions and so on.
But because Kiper is so knowledgeable and recognized as one of the elite NFL draft gurus, fans can’t help but scoff any time he’s wrong. It’s really a compliment to Kiper if nothing else. But there have been a few instances where he was WAY OFF in his predictions and insight.
10. Seattle Seahawks in 2011, 2012
The Seahawks hit some home runs in the later rounds of the 2011 and ‘12 drafts, propelling them to NFC powerhouse status. Of course, this core wound up winning two NFC Championships and Super Bowl 48.
But at the time, Mr. Mel Kiper was not a fan of how the Seahawks were going about business on draft day. At the 2011 draft, Kiper called the Richard Sherman selection “an average fifth-round pick.” The future Pro Bowl cornerback was taken 154th overall, so we can’t blame Kiper for being wrong here.
All 31 other teams had their doubts about Sherman too, after all.
And no Seattle fan will forget how much he ripped on them for their 2012 draft picks. He gave them a C-minus for their selections.
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Those selections, of course, included talented pass rusher Bruce Irvin, Pro Bowl linebacker Bobby Wagner and future face of the franchise, Russell Wilson. Here’s what Kiper said before Seattle took Wilson in the third round, 75th overall:
“I think he’ll have a Seneca Wallace-type career where you can bring him off the bench and he’ll add a spark.”
Oh, and he ranked Kirk Cousins, Brock Osweiler and Nick Foles ahead of Wilson.
In the end, Seattle saw something in all these hidden gems, and 31 other teams were left looking plain silly.
Mr. Kiper wasn’t alone here. But he was certainly more critical on these selections than just about everybody else.
9. Rob Gronkowski
The stud tight end probably could have gone early in the first round, but a back injury forced “Gronk” to miss his junior year at Arizona. That obviously scared some teams off, but Bill Belichick nabbed Gronk with the 42nd pick…because, of course, he did. And of course, Belichick made 31 other teams pay for passing up on Gronkowski.
Thing is, Mel Kiper wasn’t only critical of this pick because Gronkowski was coming off a serious injury. He just didn’t think the future Pro Bowler was THAT great of a player.
Kiper said they should have gone with Oregon tight end Ed Dickson or Texas linebacker Sergio Kindle. Kiper also cited concerns about Gronk’s injuries here, which have obviously plagued No. 87 throughout his career.
But still, this is the best weapon Tom Brady has ever had, and the pick produced three Super Bowls in Foxborough.
8. David Carr and Joey Harrington
Two of the top three picks in the 2002 NFL Draft were quarterbacks; David Carr went first to the Houston Texans, and Joey Harrington to the Detroit Lions. For what it’s worth, the Carolina Panthers drafted perennial Pro Bowler and future Hall of Famer Julius Peppers with the second pick.
The expansion Texans franchise thought they had a franchise QB to build around, while the Lions were optimistic that Harrington was going to turn their fortunes around quickly. Kiper was fully on board with the picks as well.
Carr can’t be blamed entirely, but he wound up being one of the bigger draft busts in recent memory. It didn’t help that Houston built a horrible team around him; this guy was sacked 76 times in his rookie year!
Carr went 22 and 53 as a starter in Houston, with 59 touchdowns against 65 interceptions. The Texans eventually moved on from Carr after the 2006 season, and he’d finish out his career as a backup.
As for Harrington, same thing. The Lions never put him in a situation to succeed. He went a ghastly 18 and 37 as Detroit’s quarterback with 60 touchdowns against 62 interceptions. He last played in the NFL in 2007.
Well Mr. Kiper, sir, I think when people looked back three or four years after these draft picks, they were already calling them busts and disappointments.
Moving on…
7. Andre Wadsworth
The 1998 NFL Draft was highlighted by two CAN’T-MISS quarterback prospects in Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf. Of course, one guy became a five-time MVP and two-time Super Bowl champion with the Indianapolis Colts. The other was taken by the San Diego Chargers and became the biggest draft bust ever.
Oh, and Michigan cornerback Charles Woodson was taken fourth overall by the Oakland Raiders. He was only the 2009 Defensive Player of the Year and a four-time First-Team All-Pro.
But Mel Kiper wasn’t looking at any of these guys as the top prospect in the ‘98 NFL draft. He thought that label belonged to Florida State defensive end Andre Wadsworth. In fact, Kiper was comparing him to the NFL’s all-time sacks leader, Bruce Smith.
“I compare Andre Wadsworth to Bruce Smith in terms of his natural instincts and athleticism, getting after the quarterback.”
The Arizona Cardinals took Wadsworth third overall, but boy was he ever a disappointment. Wadsworth lasted just three years in the NFL, finishing with eight sacks in his career.
Good thing the Colts and Raiders ignored Kiper here…
6. Johnny Manziel
Back in 2014, there were two types of people in this world: Those who thought Johnny Manziel would be a big-time bust and those who thought Johnny Manziel was the NFL’s next great quarterback.
The Texas A&M product and Heisman Trophy winner had a tremendous skill set; but there were concerns about A) his off-the-field antics and B) his ability to translate those skills over to the NFL level.
Whatever the case, Kiper was certain that Johnny Football was going to be a top-five pick in 2014, even projecting that the Houston Texans would take him first overall.
The Cleveland Browns took Manziel 22nd overall, but he sadly wasn’t able to escape his problems off the field. Manziel kept partying, broke curfew and didn’t seem to take his job seriously. He started just eight games over two seasons with the Browns, but they ultimately released him in the 2016 offseason.
Manziel went to the CFL in 2018, but after playing one season for Montreal, he was cut after missing mandatory meetings. Manziel then joined the AAF weeks later, landing with the Memphis Express.
Good thing nobody took Manziel in the top five, eh Mel? Yikes.
5. Mike Williams
The Detroit Lions had made plenty of blunders heading into the 2005 draft, but Mel Kiper thought they nailed their first-rounder this year. With the 10th overall selection, Detroit drafted big USC wide receiver Mike Williams.
And why not? He was a consensus All-American and brought excellent size at 6-foot-5, 235 pounds. Kiper was more than positive that the Lions had drafted a franchise star. Fellow analyst Merril Hoge asked Kiper about his thoughts on the selection.
What Kiper said still stings to this day, if you’re a Lions fan:
“I’ll see you at his Hall of Fame induction,” Kiper said to Hoge.
Well, we all know how that panned out. Williams lasted just two seasons with the Lions and totaled 37 receptions for 449 yards and two touchdowns. Williams would later play with the Raiders and Seahawks and was out of the NFL after the 2011 season.
About that whole “Hall of Fame induction” thing…?
4. Jimmy Clausen and Kentwan Balmer
Kiper became close friends with the late Gary Wichard, an NFL player agent whose clients included 2008 and 2010 draft prospects Kentwan Balmer and Jimmy Clausen, respectively.
Balmer, a defensive end out of North Carolina, was taken with the 29th pick by the San Francisco 49ers in 2008. He only spent three seasons in the NFL and didn’t record any sacks. But because Balmer was a client of Kiper’s good friend, the NFL analyst overhyped the defensive end quite a bit. Some wonder if Kiper did this to help out his pal.
Kiper believed Clausen was destined to be a franchise savior, and the Carolina Panthers selected him with the 48th pick in the 2010 Draft. Mel Kiper was SO high on Clausen that he ranked him as the TOP QB in this draft class. Kiper also uttered these now-famous words:
“If Jimmy Clausen is not a successful quarterback in the NFL, I’m done. That’s it. I’m out.”
Kiper also added that he wanted “eight years” on Clausen. Oops.
Clausen’s Panthers finished with the NFL’s worst record in 2010 at 2-and-14, paving the way for them to take Cam Newton first overall in 2011. With that, Clausen was already done as a starter.
Clausen last played in the NFL back in 2015, so we only needed five years to find out he was a bust, not eight. And by the way, Kiper has yet to make good on his promise and retire.
3. Ryan Leaf
As we talked about earlier, Ryan Leaf was taken second overall by the Chargers in 1998, right after the Colts took Peyton Manning. The Chargers actually swung a deal with the Cardinals to move up a spot and take him at No. 2.
San Diego surrendered the No. 3 selection, another first-rounder, a second-round selection and Pro Bowl special teams returner Eric Metcalf to move up and take Leaf. Kiper, of course, thought the Cardinals should have gotten more in the trade.
Well, we all know what happened here. Leaf became an instant locker room problem in San Diego, often clashed with the media, and developed a reputation as a me-first player and a hot-head. The Chargers couldn’t deal with Leaf anymore, and he was released after the 2000 season.
Of course, Mel Kiper was NOT the only one who was wrong here. Everybody expected Leaf to be a perennial Pro Bowler, but his head wasn’t in the game, and a shoulder injury didn’t help.
But uh, it looks like the Chargers actually gave up TOO much for Leaf, eh Mel?
2. JaMarcus Russell
The Oakland Raiders drafted LSU quarterback JaMarcus Russell first overall in 2007, and many of us were all over this pick. Russell displayed a terrific arm and world-class athleticism. It looked like the Raiders had finally found their new franchise star.
Kiper, of course, was fully on board with this pick. He didn’t think Russell would need long to assert himself as one of the NFL’s elite.
Oh, and Kiper compared Russell’s skill level to that of John Elway’s. Except, you know, one of them is a two-time Super Bowl champion and Pro Football Hall of Famer. Russell, on the other hand, went down as one of the biggest all-time draft busts.
Russell only started 25 games over a three-year span and posted a 7 and 18 record. He tossed just 18 touchdowns against 23 interceptions and was out of the NFL after the 2009 season. Russell attempted a comeback in 2013 but to no avail.
1. Calvin Johnson
As you’ve seen on this list so far, the Lions have wasted so many high-end picks throughout the 21st century. But they made a game-changing move by selecting Georgia Tech wideout Calvin Johnson with the No. 2 pick in 2007, right after Russell was taken.
Kiper felt that the Lions messed up the opportunity to address their need for a quarterback with this selection. More specifically, he thought they should have taken Brady Quinn at No. 2.
Quinn wasn’t taken until the 22nd selection by the Cleveland Browns, and like Russell, he would go down as a major draft bust.
As for Megatron? Oh, you know, he only became the best wide receiver for much of his time in the league. Johnson was a six-time Pro Bowler and recorded 731 receptions for 11,619 yards and 83 touchdowns in his career. He helped the long-struggling Lions reach the playoffs in 2011 and 2014.
In other words: Canton-bound.
And that, Mr. Mel Kiper, is why the Lions did NOT take your advice and draft Brady Quinn.
