When it comes to making strong first impressions, much of the 2024 NFL rookie class has not disappointed. Jayden Daniels, Caleb Williams, Brock Bowers, and Malik Nabers headline the group of newbies who’ve played like stars since stepping onto the field. On the flip side, there also hasn’t been a shortage of first-year players who have struggled mightily during the transition from college to the pros. Do we dare say they look like NFL draft busts?
Before we start, allow us to clarify that we’re not deeming their careers over…But if these players don’t bounce back from an awful rookie campaign over the next two years, they’ll go down as big-time draft NFL busts.
So with that, let’s look at 10 NFL rookies who already look like busts.
Which 10 NFL rookies are already looking like busts this season?
Dallas Turner
The Minnesota Vikings were so high on Turner’s potential that they gutted their 2025 draft capital to move up for him.
For starters, they gave up their 2024 and 2025 second-round picks to land an additional first-round pick from the Houston Texans in 2024. Then they traded up via the Jacksonville Jaguars, giving up their 2024 first and a 2025 third-rounder to snag Turner at No. 17 overall.
As ESPN’s Seth Walder noted at the time, the draft value system shows Minny basically lost a first-round pick with these two trades. And, essentially, it cost them two first-rounders to get Turner.
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Unfortunately for Minnesota, Turner hasn’t done a whole lot of anything in year one to justify the aggressive moves by GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah. Turner has only played about one-fifth of Minnesota’s defensive snaps in a rotational role, and the data at Pro Football Focus doesn’t paint a pretty picture.
Aside from a disappointing stat line, the advanced stats show that he’s barely average as a pass rusher and run defender. Was the trade-up really worth it? Through the halfway point of the 2024 season, it certainly doesn’t look like it.
Folks seem to be overlooking Turner’s disappointing rookie year because the Vikings have been a pleasant surprise — namely, Sam Darnold and Brian Flores’ defense. But it’s safe to say that if Minnesota had a do-over, Adofo-Mensah would sell three valuable day-two picks to get Turner.
Terrion Arnold
Arnold was the consensus top cornerback prospect entering the 2024 NFL Draft. And it just so happened that the NFC runner-up Detroit Lions had a pressing need for cornerback help.
As such, it felt like a match made in Heaven when the Lions drafted the Alabama product 24th overall. The secondary was Detroit’s only pressing need, and Arnold was to join a secondary led by rising star Brian Branch and offseason trade pickup Carlton Davis.
Despite the new faces, however, the Lions’ pass defense remains one of the worst in football. Arnold’s struggles are a key reason why.
Arnold has been terrible in coverage by practically all metrics, thus the NFL bust label. Opposing quarterbacks have combined for a passer rating north of 90 when targeting Arnold, who ranks as below-average at PFF, too.
Arnold was a five-star shutdown cornerback for Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide, but he’s been the weak link in Detroit’s secondary this year. Dan Campbell and company can only hope that it’s nothing more than growing pains and that Arnold will have it figured out in year two.
Xavier Legette
The Carolina Panthers traded up via the Buffalo Bills to take South Carolina wide receiver Xavier Legette with the No. 32 selection, adding another weapon to try and help Bryce Young rebound from a miserable rookie year.
The move seemed genius at the time since the Panthers’ only playmaker a year ago was 33-year-old Adam Thielen. Legette, coupled with the arrival of new Panthers head coach Dave Canales, gave Young hope for a bounce-back season in year two.
But nothing has gone right for the Panthers this season. In fact, it took just two games for Young to get benched in favor of veteran Andy Dalton. No matter who the quarterback has been, Legette just hasn’t been producing for the Panthers.
Take away that 66-yard outing in Week 4 against the Cincinnati Bengals and garbage time stats, and Legette simply hasn’t done enough to show he’s worthy of a first-round pick. Is he an NFL bust? Maybe Carolina’s new starting QB in 2025 will unlock the speedster’s potential.
Ja’Lynn Polk
Too bad the New England Patriots traded down with the Los Angeles Charges from 34 to 37. The Chargers made good use of that pick by taking Georgia wideout Ladd McConkey, who already looks like a future No. 1 receiver.
The Patriots were happy to move down to select Washington wide receiver Ja’Lynn Polk, hoping he could end their never-ending search for a No. 1 receiver. A Polk-Drake Maye pairing gave Pats fans something to be excited about in year one of the post-Bill Belichick era.
Polk hasn’t drawn any separation whatsoever. And his inability to get targets is concerning when you consider that the Pats have, like, the worst set of receivers in the league.
Patriots fans understandably have early concerns about Polk because this team has a terrible history of drafting and developing wide receivers. Guys like Chad Jackson, Aaron Dobson, and N’Keal Harry never panned out. Is Polk the next one to join that list? Only time will tell.
Maye has shown flashes of brilliance in his rookie year, but he won’t hit stardom unless the Patriots put some real weapons around him. Obviously, that “hope” starts with Polk rebounding from a rough rookie year and finally hitting his potential in year two.
Also Read: 5 NFL Rookies From 2024 That Already Look Like STARS… And 5 That Look Like BUSTS
Byron Murphy II
The Seattle Seahawks had the league’s second-worst run defense in 2023, allowing a whopping 138.4 rushing yards per game on the ground. So the solution was rather simple heading into the 2024 NFL Draft: Grab the best available defensive linemen.
So with the No. 16 pick, the ‘Hawks took Texas defensive tackle Byron Murphy II – no relation to Vikings cornerback Byron Murphy, by the way. And with a full season of Leonard Williams in Seattle, it looked like the Hawks had the pieces to field a top-10 run defense.
Or not?
The Hawks’ rushing defense has been even better than last year, and Murphy has not helped matters at all. He’s been used as a rotational piece, playing about half their defensive snaps with the odd workload on special teams.
Murphy’s run defense hardly ranks inside the top half of qualified defensive linemen at Pro Football Focus, too. Again, Seattle’s misery against the run isn’t entirely on Murphy, but he was supposed to do a lot more than what we’ve seen thus far.
Adonai Mitchell
It’s easy to forget now, but Adonai Mitchell was widely projected to be a first-round pick before the draft….or at least an early second-rounder.
The Texas wideout was ranked as the No. 36 prospect by ESPN’s Mel Kiper prior to the draft, so it felt like a steal for the Indianapolis Colts when they got him at No. 52 overall. I mean, how could he not produce in an offense with Anthony Richardson, Michael Pittman Jr., Jonathan Taylor, and Josh Downs?
Olu Fashanu
It was a bit surprising when the New York Jets decided to use the No. 11 pick on Penn State offensive tackle Olu Fashanu. They already had two quality bookends in veterans Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses, not to mention the rock-solid John Simpson and Alijah Vera-Tucker pairing at guard.
It just felt like the Jets needed to address a bigger position of need and take a player who could produce immediately…like Brock Bowers, Jared Verse, or Brian Thomas Jr.
But they rolled the dice on Fashanu, thinking long-term instead of going win-now with Aaron Rodgers at the helm. Sure enough, the move already looks like a mistake, and he looks like an NFL bust.
Amarius Mims
Trent Brown’s season-ending knee injury means the Cincinnati Bengals were smart to use their first-round pick on Amarius Mims in hindsight. But let’s go back to day one of the draft and ask why Cincy had to use a first-round pick when they had Brown and Orlando Brown Jr. as their bookends.
Unfortunately for Cincinnati, Mims has not been up for the challenge of being thrust into a starting role. The Georgia product and No. 18 pick is essentially in the bottom-fourth tier of qualified offensive tackles.
Though he hasn’t struggled as much as other rookie offensive tackles in pass protection, Mims has been practically helpless in run-blocking. And it’s pretty evident when you see the drop-off in the Bengals’ rushing game, going from Joe Mixon to a Chase Brown and Zack Moss tandem.
Joe Burrow is still taking way too many hits, and the Bengals continue to disappoint because of three main factors: The o-line, the lackluster rushing game and a defense that can’t stop a nosebleed.
You just can’t help but wonder what if the Bengals used a pick on someone like Brian Thomas Jr. to form a dynamic trio with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins? Or a shutdown cornerback like Quinyon Mitchell? Or a pass-rushing menace like Jared Verse?
Mims was considered a boom-or-bust prospect heading into the 2024 NFL Draft. Sure enough, he’s been nothing but a “bust” up to this point.
Tyler Guyton
Love or hate Jerry Jones, the Dallas Cowboys owner usually nails his first-round picks. The likes of Zack Martin, Ezekiel Elliott, CeeDee Lamb, and Micah Parsons are among the prime examples of Jerry’s first-round picks who produced immediately.
That has not been the case for Tyler Guyton, however.
Thrust into a starting role after Tyron Smith’s departure, Guyton is in PFF’s bottom-third tier of offensive linemen for both run-blocking and pass-blocking. The Cowboys have the worst rushing offense in the league, and the pass protection in front of Dak Prescott has been the weakest since his arrival in 2016.
It’s not fair to blame Guyton too much on the Cowboys’ struggles in the trenches. But for an owner who claimed his team was “all-in,” it was imperative for Jones to hit on this pick. Not only has Guyton failed to make an impact, but he’s almost doing as much harm as good in both run-blocking and pass-blocking.
Hindsight is 20/20. But seeing how awful Smith has been with the Jets, it’s safe to say that the All-Pro offensive tackle and Dallas were better off continuing their partnership, huh?
Chop Robinson
The Miami Dolphins needed pass-rushing depth, given the injury concerns around stars Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb. So, taking Penn State edge rusher Chop Robinson at No. 21 overall felt like the perfect move at the time.
After all, you can never have too many pass-rushers in today’s NFL…especially when you’re in the same conference as Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Aaron Rodgers, et all…
But this whole pass-rushing situation has been disastrous in Miami. Phillips played four games before requiring season-ending knee surgery. Chubb is still recovering from a torn ACL he suffered a year ago.
Oh, and Robinson has been virtually non-existent for most of his rookie year.
Robinson is getting snaps on both offense and defense, but there’s not much to be impressed by on the game film. His week-to-week stat line is filled with zeroes, and he’s hardly provided any pressure on opposing QBs.
The Dolphins entered this year in win-now mode and needed immediate production from Robinson, especially with Chubb out to start the season. That hasn’t been the case, though, and the Dolphins are royally screwed in the front seven if he doesn’t pick it up in the second half.
