Quarterback is the most important position in the NFL and football. It moves the needle more than just about any other position in another given sport.
Naturally, it’s easy for folks to overhype and overrate quarterbacks who put up above-average numbers. But truth be told, there are too many notable NFL QBs who get far more recognition and credit than they deserve.
Let’s dive into the 10 most overrated quarterbacks in the NFL right now heading into the 2024 season.
Which NFL quarterbacks are now considered overrated heading into the 2024 season?
Dak Prescott
If Dak Prescott wasn’t the quarterback of America’s Team, perhaps he’d be rated rationally. Imagine if No. 4 was on a small-market team like the Carolina Panthers, Jacksonville Jaguars or Atlanta Falcons instead?
But when you’re the quarterback of the Dallas Cowboys, you’re always going to receive far more hype, media coverage, and attention than others. Just ask Prescott and the guys before him — Roger Staubach, Troy Aikman, and Tony Romo.
Because Prescott puts up Pro Bowl numbers every year on a big-market team like Dallas, he’s developed a reputation as an MVP-caliber and superstar-level quarterback.
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Fair or not, star quarterbacks are always judged by their performances in the postseason. And to be perfectly blunt, Prescott has been mostly unwatchable in the playoffs despite being blessed with a star-studded supporting cast.
Prescott is 2-and-5 in the postseason for his career, with 14 touchdowns against seven interceptions. His quarterback rating drops from a superb 99.0 in the regular season to 91.8 in the playoffs.
Last season, Patrick Mahomes lifted the Kansas City Chiefs to a Super Bowl championship with a very lackluster set of wide receivers. Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Aaron Rodgers, and Matthew Stafford have put up all-world numbers and fared better in the playoffs than Prescott.
With a top-five offense and top-10 defense every year, Prescott has two wins in eight seasons as Dallas’ starting QB. He’s great for you if you want to win fantasy leagues, but this is not a guy who can push his team over the top.
That, folks, is what we call an overrated quarterback.
Jalen Hurts
Is Hurts a good NFL quarterback? Yes. Is he rated too highly compared to the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson? Absolutely.
Before AJ Brown’s arrival in 2022, Hurts was a “meh” quarterback at best. In 2021 — his first full year as a starter — Hurts had 3,144 yards and 16 touchdowns against nine interceptions.
Those Eagles had the league’s best o-line by far and the NFL’s No. 1 rushing offense, and yet Hurts was absolutely annihilated by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Wild Card Round.
Hurts had an MVP-like season in 2022 and would have likely led the Eagles to a Super Bowl 57 championship if not for the tacky holding call against James Bradberry.
But wait. Didn’t Hurts have the league’s best receiving duo that year in Devonta Smith and AJ Brown? Not to mention 1,000-yard rusher Miles Sanders, standout tight end Dallas Goedert, the league’s best o-line and the NFL’s eighth-best scoring defense.
When the Eagles were hit by the injury bug in 2023, Hurts was nowhere close to his MVP form. He suddenly became a turnover machine and failed to elevate his team during a miserable second-half collapse that culminated with an embarrassing Wild Card Round loss to Tampa Bay.
If you take away all of Hurts’ short-yardage rushing scores through the “tush push”, his stats would look a lot less MVP-caliber. Now that Jason Kelce’s gone, just how effective will that tush push be?
Also, let us remind you that Hurts’ two playoff wins to date are against Daniel Jones’ New York Giants and a San Francisco 49ers team that was forced to put in running back Christian McCaffrey at QB. Wow!
We’d like to see Hurts carry the team on his back for once to reconsider his place here. So far, he just looks like an above-average guy who’s benefitting from an elite supporting cast across the board.
Trevor Lawrence
T-Law was regarded as a generational QB prospect when he went first overall to the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2021. If he’s indeed “generational”, well, we’re still waiting for him to show it.
We’re going to excuse his 2021 rookie year because Urban Meyer single-handedly ruined everything that year. If you focus on what Lawrence has done since Doug Pederson became head coach in 2022, however, the results are merely average.
17 wins, 16 losses. 46 touchdown passes and 22 interceptions.
His lone playoff win, that epic 27-point comeback against the Los Angeles Chargers? Let’s be real, the Bolts handed that on a silver platter. Lawrence through four interceptions in that game for crying out loud.
Tough to ignore also that with the AFC South crown almost locked up last year, Lawrence lost his final five starts — with seven picks in that span. Dude couldn’t even beat a weak Titans team in a must-win Week 18 game.
Lawrence has been solid at his peak but nothing close to MVP caliber. He’s been maddeningly inconsistent in beginning his career, so it’s time to remove the “superstar” label from him until/unless he proves he actually is one.
Derek Carr
It’s pretty amazing to think that Carr has signed three separate deals worth over $100 million in his NFL career despite zero playoff wins and only two winning seasons as a quarterback.
After a nine-year run with the Oakland/Las Vegas Raiders, Carr signed a massive four-year deal with the New Orleans Saints worth $150 million.
Carr is up a stellar number on a Raiders team that never gave him a top-10 scoring defense, not to mention that he had to work with six different head coaches there.
But 2023 was a frustrating reminder that Carr isn’t the needle-moving QB that so many people seem to think. He joined a New Orleans team with a top-10 defense, an elite offensive line, and a dynamic set of weapons — in football’s worst division, no less.
Yet Carr could only 3,878 passing yards and 25 touchdowns against eight interceptions. And there were numerous instances where Jameis Winston had to come in for an injured Carr. Lo and behold, the Saints offense usually functioned better when Winston was throwing the ball.
Carr just keeps scoring the big contracts even though he’s probably not a top-20 QB in the NFL anymore. If he doesn’t cut it as New Orleans’ starter in 2024, don’t be surprised if Carr has to finish his career out as a backup.
Sure, he’s closing in on 40,000 career passing yards and 250 passing TDs. But a 72-87-0 record with zero playoff victories speaks for itself. Overrated much?
Kyler Murray
The first overall pick of 2019 is being paid like a superstar by the Arizona Cardinals, who handed Murray a $230.5 million extension in the 2022 offseason.
It’s easy to get caught up in the excitement that Murray brings, because he does look like a superstar when he’s on his game. He’s got elite athleticism and oftentimes looks like a video game character with his slick mobility and ability to extend plays.
But we’re talking about a guy here with a 28-36-1 record. He has yet to throw for 4,000 yards or 30 TDs in a season. His career interception percentage of 2.05 is even worse than Carson Wentz of all people…and other turnover-prone QBs like Jared Goff, Dak Prescott and Derek Carr.
And one needn’t be a reminder of how much Murray’s stats dropped off in 2021 following DeAndre Hopkins’ injury. It’s almost as if Murray can’t play like a Pro Bowler without a top-five wide receiver to throw to?
And yes, it’d be nice if the $230.5 million man could win his first career playoff game if he wants to shed the “overrated” label.
Geno Smith
Smith was a feel-good story in 2022, winning Comeback Player of the Year honors after setting career highs across the board. That included a league-best 69.8 completion percentage and 30 touchdown passes for the NFL quarterback.
Smith led the Seattle Seahawks to nine wins and a surprise return to the postseason in year one of the post-Russell Wilson era. That led to Seattle giving Smith a three-year contract extension worth $105 million.
But let’s not give the two-time Pro Bowler more credit than he deserves. I mean, we’re talking about a supporting cast of DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Kenneth Walker, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Zach Charbonnett.
Even Drew Lock looked good in the two starts he made for Seattle last year. Such is life, again, when you have a deep set of weapons and can lean on your running game to win ball games.
Kirk Cousins
To be honest, Cousins is hardly different than Dak Prescott.
They’re nice stats machines who consistently put up 4K passing yards and 30-TD seasons. Within the next couple of years, Cousins should hit 45,000 career passing yards and 300 touchdowns.
But like Prescott, Cousins hasn’t been able to carry the team on his back when it matters most. He’s 1-and-3 as a starter in the postseason, with two of those losses coming as a favorite at home.
Cousins is 16-and-47 in his career against teams with a winning record. And this is with elite talents like Justin Jefferson, TJ Hockenson, Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs, and Dalvin Cook as his go-to weapons over the years.
Consider that the Minnesota Vikings went to the 2017 NFC Championship Game with Case freaking Keenum. They paid Cousins all that money to…win one playoff game in six years? Okay then.
Good luck to the Atlanta Falcons, who just gave Cousins a four-year deal worth $180 million. That includes $100 million guaranteed.
The Falcons will get nice passing stats out of Cousins and maybe one playoff win. But a Super Bowl run? Dream on.
Brock Purdy
The 2022 Mr. Irrelevant is a feel-good story, no doubt. But let’s not act like Purdy is the reason behind the San Francisco 49ers’ success.
Yes, a 17-4 regular season record with 44 touchdowns and 15 picks through your first two seasons is impressive. Not to mention that Purdy was this-close to leading the 49ers to a Super Bowl 58 victory over the Chiefs.
But let’s keep this one simple: Purdy has the best set of weapons in the NFL: Rushing champion Christian McCaffrey, future Hall of Famer and tight end George Kittle, and two all-world receivers in Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk.
We’ve seen a ton of quarterbacks flourish in Kyle Shanahan’s offense. Even Jimmy Garoppolo went to a Super Bowl and two NFC Championship Games as the 49ers’ starting quarterback — and that guy’s on his third team in as many years.
Purdy doesn’t have to apologize for being in a great system, but you can’t possibly believe he’d be a great QB on the other team. He’s just properly managing the 49ers’ prolific offense as a, well, game manager.
Deshaun Watson
Watson was a bonafide superstar during his run with the Houston Texans. But he last played in H-Town four years ago, and we got to stop thinking about the past.
Watson has been a complete waste of money — and assets — since the Cleveland Browns made a blockbuster trade for him in 2022. The Browns gave up THREE first-round picks as part of the package for Watson before he signed a record-setting fully-guaranteed $230 million deal.
Suspension and injuries have limited Watson to 12 starts over his first two years in Cleveland. He’s completed less than 60 percent of pass attempts for 14 touchdowns and nine interceptions.
Making matters worse for Watson? The Browns offense was better in 2022 with Jacoby Brissett before Watson took over. And their offense peaked with a 38-year-old Joe Flacco in 2023.
So even with a top-five o-line, a top-five running back in Nick Chubb and star wideout Amari Cooper, Watson has put up mediocre numbers…while Brissett and Flacco looked like above-average dudes running the offense?
Verdict: You’re overrated, Watson. Time to start living up to that deal if you want to regain your status as an elite NFL quarterback. Good luck!
Tua Tagovailoa
It’s hard to remember now, but Tagovailoa was once regarded as a can’t-miss QB prospect back in 2019. He was the early and overwhelming favorite to go first overall in the 2020 NFL Draft, but a season-ending injury and the rise of Joe Burrow quickly changed that.
Tagovailoa wound up going fifth overall to the Miami Dolphins in 2020. He was the second QB taken after Burrow, who went first overall to the Cincinnati Bengals.
Tagovailoa has gone 32-19-0 over his first four seasons as a starter, but we’re of the belief that he’s a product of Miami’s system.
Consider his stats before Tyreek Hill arrived in 2022: 27 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. In 2021, he averaged a “meh” 204.1 passing yards per game.
Tua’s first two years with Hill? 54 touchdowns and 22 interceptions. And he averaged at least 272 passing yards per game in each season.
Here’s the deal: Tua looks great NOW because he can just throw a pass to the league’s best deep threat and let Hill do the rest. Oh, not to mention Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane are all-world difference-makers too.
Throw in Tagovailoa’s AWFUL record against teams with winning record for his career, and you have an overrated QB. He can beat up on the bad and mediocre teams with his insane set of weapons, but when it comes to elite competition, Tagovailoa folds.
So maybe let’s top hyping him as a superstar and MVP-level QB. Can he please get at least one playoff win first?
Also Read: 5 Best Journeyman Quarterbacks In NFL History…And The 5 Worst Who Were Major Disappointments
