Bust or Real Deal? That’s the real question about USC star QB Caleb Williams.
University of Southern California has a history of producing Heisman Trophy winners; and Quarterback Caleb Williams is the most recent USC player to be immortalized in the College football world. Rarely do we see a prospect hyped up as much as Caleb Williams, and we can’t wait to see how his NFL career pans out.
Here are five reasons why Caleb Williams is a future NFL bust, and five reasons why he’s the real deal.
Bust: Heisman Curse
It’s no surprise. That USC has produced their fair share of Heisman winners; Reggie Bush, Matt Leinart, and Carson Palmer to name a few (Reggie’s Heisman totally counts). But Heisman Winners don’t always continue their dominance once they turn pro. Over eighty college athletes have won the Heisman Trophy, but only ten Heisman winners have won a Super Bowl. In fact, fifteen Heisman trophy winners never played in an NFL game.
Real Deal: Passing Stats
All three years that Williams has played in college, he has recorded a completion percentage over 60% and has tossed for 20 or more touchdowns. Throughout his college career, Williams has thrown 91 touchdowns to 13 interceptions in 35 games. This is compared to former Heisman winning quarterback from USC Carson Palmer, who only threw 71 touchdowns to 49 career interceptions. These stats show that Williams had a better college career than Palmer in terms of stats, and this may carry over to the NFL.
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Bust: Crunching the Numbers
Out of the past thirty Heisman winners dating back to 1992, 22 of them were quarterbacks. Of those quarterbacks, eight played five or less years in the NFL (excluding six active players). In addition, Heisman winners like Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, and Tim Tebow have all been labeled “busts” for not living up to the hype they had coming out of college. While this doesn’t apply to every Heisman winner, it is not uncommon for a highly touted college QB to struggle at an NFL level.
Real Deal: Standing out in a PAC-ed conference
Get it? “PAC-ed”, “packed”. In its final season, the PAC-12 conference has been fun to watch, and nearly every quarterback has shown pro potential. Bo Nix, Michael Penix Jr., Shedeur Sanders, and Cam Ward just to name a few are future NFL caliber quarterbacks that play in the same conference as Caleb Williams. Even in a stacked conference, Williams has found a way to stand out, and is second in the conference in passing yards and first in passing touchdowns. Williams also has that big play making ability that again, has helped him to stand out in a crowded QB conference.
Bust: Attitude
Following a loss to the University of Washington on November fourth, Williams was seen crying after the game. In addition, Williams is known for writing “F…” then the opposing team’s name on his fingernails before a big game. This reflects a childish attitude from Williams, who is also notorious for asking for partial ownership in whatever team drafts him. This egocentrism shows red flags similar to those second-overall pick in 1998 Ryan Leaf was marked with upon entering his rookie year in the NFL.
Real Deal: USC Receiving Core
In 2022, Williams did not have a receiver who broke 1,000 yards through the air. Instead, he spread the ball around to eighteen receivers, and helped four of them crack 600 yards receiving. Granted, in 2022 Williams did have Jordan Addison to catch passes, but outside of him, name one person that was a part of the USC receiving core in 2022. Go on, we’ll wait. Now in 2023, there are no receivers from USC on the Biletnikoff watch list, but Williams is still finding ways to put up video game like stats.
Bust: Struggles to Finish Strong
In big games, Williams has struggled to stand tall in the face of adversity. Two of the three losses that USC Suffered in 2022 were against the Utah Utes. In the regular season matchup, Williams had the ball with a chance to win the game in the final minute of the fourth quarter; but he couldn’t get it done. Later that year in the PAC-12 championship, Williams took seven sacks against the Utes, and his frustration was very visible.
In the Cotton Bowl against Tulane, USC’s offense was held to only three points in the fourth quarter, which allowed Tulane to make a comeback and win the game. In 2023, USC has suffered three losses in the first ten games, and in those losses, USC has only managed to score thirteen points in the third quarter. If he is going to make the leap to the NFL, Williams needs to be able to find a way to pu up points in the fourth quarter.
Real Deal: Williams’ Got Wheels
Caleb Williams has shown his ability to escape the pocket and evade tacklers when he needs to, and it is not uncommon to see PAC-12 network brag about the Heisman Winner’s dual threat ability. In 2022, Williams recorded 382 rushing yards, which is typical for a quarterback.
However, the surprising part is the ten touchdowns that Williams recorded on the ground, which was more than any other player on the USC roster in 2022. Williams has continued his dominance in 2023 and recorded ten rushing touchdowns in the first ten games of his final year at USC. While he may not be a Lamar Jackson type dual threat, William’s ability to extend plays and lower his shoulder when he needs to will gain him admiration from his future NFL teammates.
Bust: History of First Round Picks
Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Daniel Jones, Jared Goff, Sam Darnold, and Josh Rosen. What do these players have in common? All of them were quarterbacks taken within the first ten picks of their respective draft class. What else do they have in common? They were all immensely hyped up coming out of college and were thought to be the savior of their franchise. Well, you decide how their careers turned out, but they certainly weren’t the saviors of their franchise. That’s just players within the past five years. Look back throughout history and we see the trend continues. Jamarcus Russell, Ryan Leaf, and David Carr just to name a few. Will Caleb Williams become another name on this list? Because History says yes.
Real Deal: No Defense
In 2022, there were six games where the USC Defense allowed 30 or more points. The following year in 2023, the USC defense allowed opponents to score 30 or more points in six straight games, and five of those games saw the opponents crack 40 on the scoreboard. Opponents of USC have averaged 29 or more points per game in the past two years, which averages 109th out of 133 FBS teams. Not exactly a reliable defense for Caleb Williams to work with.
