As the MLB season draws nearer and nearer, teams are starting to shape up their rosters and get in a good position for the year. This off-season has been a crazy one, with some of the biggest contracts in the history of the sport being signed. So naturally, that kind of craziness can shake up division races. Here’s how we see all six divisions coming up at the top and at the bottom.
NL East Winner: Atlanta Braves
This one should surprise no one. Outside of the Mets making a run that fell flat at the end of September in 2022, there really has been no challenger to the Braves dominance of the Division in the last few years. The acquisition of Chris Sale makes the Braves even more formidable than their 104-win team was last year, and we wouldn’t be surprised if they crack the 110-win mark this year. The Phillies have a strong side too, but the Braves should still win the division 10+ games up.
NL East Basement: Washington Nationals
The Nationals are one of the worst teams in the sport. Unfortunately, there’s some stiff competition for that title this year, but the Nats certainly have it locked up in the NL East. After a failed move to sell the team, and the marquee signing of the off-season being Eddie Rosario, the Nats are not in a position to go .500, much less compete. Corbin has been the most hittable pitcher in baseball the last two seasons, and the rotation only gets worse from there. Perhaps if CJ Abrams and Keibert Ruiz have breakout seasons the lineup might get a bit better, but without any protection for these guys, how does anyone expect that to happen?
NL Central Winner: St. Louis Cardinals
The Cards had their worst season in decades last year and are looking to bounce back. Their terrible rotation was their ultimate downfall so they went out and got Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and Kyle Hendricks to fix the problem. Another huge part of their struggle was the sub-par play of Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. Unless they both are completely cooked, they will come back and put up numbers that reflect their Hall of Fame status again this year. With those two holes filled, the Cardinals should be back on top of a fairly weak NL Central.
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NL Central Basement: Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates finally were not in last place in 2023, thanks to the Cardinals having such a bad year. However, they still weren’t particularly good, despite a strong start. In fact, after going 20-8, the Pirates went 56-78 for the rest of the year, a brutal .417 winning percentage and a disappointing 76-86 record. Not much has been done to improve the team, and starting pitching still remains a huge hole. Unless Mitch Keller takes a big step forward after his extension, and 2023 number one overall pick Paul Skenes can charge onto the scene and dominate, the Pirates are probably going to play closer to that .417 win percentage than even their ten games-under finish from last year.
NL West Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers
This is about as obvious as the Braves in the NL East. The Dodgers dropped a billion dollars on Ohtani and Yamamoto, they better win the west. We think it’s possible they actually win fewer games than the 100 they won last year, mostly due to some early jitters, but in the end, they will win the division. The most loaded on-paper roster ever constructed, we’re not going to pick against them.
NL West Basement: Colorado Rockies
This is actually even more certain than the Dodgers winning. The Rockies are brutally bad. Kris Bryant has played less than 130 games in his two seasons as a Rockie and the rest of the team hasn’t been able to pick up the slack. Combine that with German Marquez and Anthony Senzatela starting the year on the IL, the Rockies are in big trouble. Frankly, this team could put the Mets’ all-time loss record in its sights.
AL East Winner: Baltimore Orioles
The O’s shocked the league with a 101-win season last year and are in an even better position this year after bringing in Corbin Burnes to lead the rotation. The Yankees will be a tough challenge after acquiring Juan Soto, but the Orioles can take it head-on. We think the O’s also have fewer health question marks than the Yankees which will make them stand the test of the 162-game season in a way that has them on top.
AL East Basement: Boston Red Sox
The BoSox are not in a good position this year. They dealt Chris Sale and Alex Verdugo away, arguably their best player in Sale and a starting position player with a solid career .765 OPS, which means they certainly will not improve. Since they were last in the division in 2023, have only gotten worse while the rest of the division, save perhaps the Rays, has gotten better, they are poised to repeat that last-place finish.
AL Central Winner: Cleveland Guardians
The AL Central is pretty wide open, and we’re picking a dark horse. The Guardians have one of the strongest young rotations in the sport with Bibee, Allen and Williams putting up great rookie campaigns. Then they’ve got former Cy Young winner Shane Beiber looking to bounce back from a season not quite up to his standards. With this powerful front four and the Naylor brothers ready to do some damage at the plate along with stud third baseman Jose Ramirez, the Guardians are looking like they could take a weak division up for grabs.
AL Central Basement: Chicago White Sox
The White Sox are lost organizationally. The team had a brutal year in 2023 and has not covered any of the gaps in the roster in the off-season. They lost Tim Anderson to free agency which means their lineup will only get worse, and they’re looking to get rid of Dylan Cease, who is at this point by far their best player. It could get ugly on the South Side this year.
AL West Winner: Houston Astros
The AL West is going to be a tough division this year. The reigning World Series champion Rangers are not going anywhere, the Mariners are lurking with a side that could surprise the league, but the juggernaut Astros are still the team to beat. With Verlander at the top of the rotation and an absolutely stacked lineup, this team is in great shape to do all the damage they did last year, and maybe more. Adding Josh Hader to lock down the 9th inning certainly won’t hurt either.
AL West Basement: Oakland Athletics
Deja vu all over again, the last-place team in the west is more certain than the first. The Athletics are definitively the worst team in the AL. The team is mired in controversy as the ownership attempts to uproot to Las Vegas, but they are doing such a poor job that their TV deal will actually be in jeopardy after 2024. The roster is constructed of below-replacement-level players with Zach Gelof being the only real bright spot. If this is the Athletics’ last year in Oakland, it will be a very sad one.
