The 2023 MLB Season was full of surprises. The Diamondbacks and Marlins took wildcard slots with no pre-season playoff hopes. Arizona was able to parlay that ticket to the post-season into a World Series run where they were defeated by the Rangers. On the other side of the coin, New York baseball took a nosedive in 2023. The Mets finished twenty six games below their 2022 record, and sold at the deadline, trading away future Hall Of Famers Scherzer and Verlander. Up in the Bronx, the Yankees missed the playoffs for the first time in seven years, and only the third time in the last 10 years.
A new year brings a new season. And the fortunes of franchises are always rising and falling in baseball. Here are a few teams we think will fare better than last year, and some we think may finish worse.
New York Yankees – Will Improve
As we mentioned, the Yanks did not have a great 2023. The lone bright spot was Gerrit Cole’s first Cy Young win. With Judge and Stanton dealing with injuries, the lineup lacked the power to get the job done. Fortunately for the Evil Empire, Brian Cashman has taken steps to rectify this issue. He made a splash acquiring superstar Juan Soto.
The Yankees added much-needed depth by signing Marcus Stroman for the rotation and trading for Alex Verdugo. Stanton has also come out and stated he is committed to doing whatever he can to stay on the field this season. With Stanton and Judge healthy, they will form a three-headed monster with their new teammate Soto. The reloaded Yankees are a force to be feared in the AL East.
Los Angeles Dodgers – Will Decline
We’ll preface here that we are not saying we think the Dodgers will have a bad year. However, it is hard to repeat 100-win seasons several years in a row, even with the nuclear firepower added in Ohtani, Yamamoto and Glasnow. Expectations also become an issue here. The Dodgers could quite easily get off to a slow start with all the pressure surrounding the organization. A mid-90s win total with a more narrow NL West win is our prediction for the Dodgers, a minor regression, but a decline nonetheless.
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San Francisco Giants – Will Improve
After a 107-win 2021, the Giants have underperformed the past two seasons, failing to reach the playoffs both years. The Giants missed out on Harper, Judge, Ohtani and Yamamoto in the last several rounds of free agency, but have not rolled over and begun to rebuild in spite of this. In fact, they made a huge international signing that went overlooked due to Ohtani and Yamamoto. The Giants signed Korean player Jung-Hoo Lee to a 6-year, $113 million deal. Lee hit .340 in his KBO career and is looking to bring that hit tool to the USA.
They further bolstered the lineup by adding power-hitter and two-time World Series champ Jorge Soler. Hitting wasn’t the only area that improved either. The Giants added former AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray in a trade with the Mariners. They also avoided arbitration with key bullpen piece Tyler Rogers to the tune of $3.2 million. With the stacked Dodgers and reigning NL Champ D-Backs in the division, the Giants will have a tough road but are in a much better position than they were last year.
Miami Marlins – Will Decline
The Marlins stunned the league with a trip to the playoffs in 2023. However, there is a much more grim outlook for 2024. First, their management has completely changed. Mattingly departed “mutually” from the team, despite routinely over-performing to a weak roster. Kim Ng, the first female GM in MLB history did not pick up her option to return.
Next, the roster is weakened. Ace pitcher and former Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara is out for the year with an elbow injury and Tommy John recovery, Jorge Soler and Yuli Gurriel are gone. They did add Tim Anderson and hope to have Jazz Chisolm play a full year, but overall, it is not looking too good for a playoff repeat down in Miami.
St. Louis Cardinals – Will Improve
The Cards had their worst season in decades last year with a 71-91 finish. Goldschmidt and Arenado had down years, and their pitching was abysmal with a 5.08 ERA out of their starters. To fix this, the Cardinals have signed three starters in the form of Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn. Hopefully, this will repair their brutal rotation. They also added Andrew Kittredge and Nick Robertson to improve the bullpen. With these new pitchers and a return to the mean for the future Hall of Fame corner infielders, the Cards will do a good bit better than 20 games under .500.
Los Angeles Angels – Will Decline
The Angels are in trouble. With no Ohtani, the team is pretty much shot. Rendon doesn’t even want to play. Trout can’t stay on the field. None of their prospects have panned out since Trout. They have no pitching whatsoever. They’ve made no moves to improve the team. It seems unlikely they’ll win 73 games again this year.
New York Mets – Will Improve
Much like their crosstown foes, the Mets should be in a better place than last year. Jeff McNeil and Pete Alonso had the worst years of their careers respectively, and stud closer Edwin Diaz missed the entire season due to a brutal celebration-related injury in the World Baseball Classic. Starling Marte also struggled to stay on the field and struggled even worse at the plate when he was able to play. With these four players at full tilt, the Mets will improve dramatically.
The Mets also retained Adam Ottavino, and added Jake Diekman to ensure Diaz isn’t going it alone in the bullpen. The only question mark is the rotation. With Senga already shut down with a shoulder strain and questionable pitchers like Severino and Manea filling out the ranks, a lot is to be desired. However, even if they don’t make the playoffs in a loaded National League, the Mets still should see some improvement over their tough 2024.
Baltimore Orioles – Will Decline
Much like the Dodgers, we do not think the Orioles will have a bad year, just a worse one than 2023. Last year, they won 101 games on the back of up-and-coming young players like Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rustchman. However, as expectations mount and the league gets a book on these young hitters, the team may stumble a bit. The reloaded Yankees will also make the division a tougher one to succeed in. We think the Orioles and Yanks will duke it out for the AL East title, with both winding up in the playoffs one way or another.
Kansas City Royals – Will Improve
The Royals had a miserable 2023 with 56 wins. They’ve made this list on the basis that it cannot get worse at this point. Advanced metrics said that 2023 shouldn’t have been quite as bad as it was. Their Pythagorean win/loss, a metric that uses run differential to determine record, said they should have won 64 games. The Royals have not laid down to die either. They added pitchers Wacha and Lugo, and signed Hunter Renfroe for the outfield. If Witt Jr. grows into the MVP-caliber player they believe he can be, it’s not hard to see the Royals pushing .500 in a weak AL Central.
Tampa Bay Rays – Will Decline
Once again we have a team that we don’t think will be bad, just worse than last year. Let’s get the elephant in the room out of the way first, the Rays’ best all-around player Wander Franco will never play in the Major Leagues again due to his abhorrent actions with an underage girl. Now that we’ve cleared that up, the rest of the lineup is solid as long as Josh Lowe and Isaac Parades can continue to improve.
However, the Rays will not have Shane Mclanahan due to Tommy John surgery and have lost Tyler Glasnow to the Dodgers in free agency, so the rotation is severely weakened. All of these things considered, it’s unlikely the Rays win 99 games again, especially with strong Orioles and Yankees teams in the division. They’ll be fighting for a Wild Card slot and a return to the playoffs.
