With Opening Day right around the corner, the excitement among baseball fans is through the roof. Lots of things happened during the offseason and some teams are stacking up to the brim while others failed to do so. But at the end of the day, a team’s success – or failure – largely depends on how their stars are going to perform under pressure. Today, we will select 5 MLB Players That Will Have Great Seasons… And 5 That Will Fall Off in 2024.
Great Season: Cody Bellinger
Bellinger is back. After playing to a horrendous .203/.272/.376 slash from 2020-2022, Bellinger returned to form in 2023 putting up a .307/.356/.525 slash is good for a 133 OPS+ (a stat where 100 represents the league average). This earned him a nice contract of three years, $80MM. We think Bellinger will push for another MVP this year, having found his way back to the top of the NL.
Fall Off: J.P. Crawford
Crawford put up a nice season for the Mariners last year, leading the AL in walks and hitting a career-high 19 homers. However, Crawford was a .691 OPS player before last year. It’s hard to imagine that the typically weak-hitting shortstop will be able to repeat this performance, especially in a lineup that has lost some of its pop with Eugenio Suarez shipped off to Arizona. Crawford also benefited from a bit of BABIP (batting average on balls in play) luck with a .314 BABIP compared to a .297 MLB average. Opposing teams will key in on Crawford as one of the more important hitters in the lineup and do their best to shut him down. With that target on his back, we see a regression coming.
Great Season: Nolan Arenado
Arenado had about as bad of a season as the Cardinals last year. He was about 100 points below his career OPS with a .774 last season. This was good for a 109 OPS+, which is obviously not bad in a vacuum, but coming off a 151 OPS+ season the year before makes it look a lot worse. The Cards are reloaded, and Arenado is poised to be a big piece of their hopeful return to the top of the NL Central.
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Fall Off: Matt Olson
Before anyone jumps down our throat, we don’t think Matt Olson will have an outright bad season. However, we think he will come back down to Earth. Olson led MLB in HR and RBI, as well as the NL in SLG. Looking at Olson’s career, he typically has a down season after a very good one, as pitchers likely adjust to his vicious uppercut. While we don’t think Olson will be useless, expect an HR total in the 30s rather than 50s.
Great Season: Pete Alonso
In the reverse of Olson, Alonso is coming off a bad year. Now, a bad year for the Polar Bear is still a 40+ HR season, but nevertheless, Alonso had a .217 BA and .318 OBP last year. Alonso is in a contract year and will be looking to get himself a massive deal in the off-season. Pete will be locked in and ready to do some more damage in the NL East.
Fall Off: Blake Snell
Snell is coming off his second Cy Young, but contract issues kept him out of almost the entirety of Spring Training. He’s finally found a home with the Giants for two years at $32MM. Snell has had a bit of a bizarre career, despite winning two Cy Youngs, Snell also has three seasons with an ERA over four. Between the tumultuous off-season and his inconsistent career, we see Snell has having a rough first half, even if he may find his footing late in the season.
Great Season: Jeff McNeil
McNeil was another Met who had a brutal 2023. After winning the 2022 batting title he posted a pedestrian 96 OPS+ in 2023. However, McNeil came back to life in the second half, putting up a .303 BA from August 1 onward. We think the Flying Squirrel is poised to return to his high-hit tool form, and as Mets broadcaster Gary Cohen says about McNeil’s ability to make contact, “wave his magic wand” back towards the top of the league in average and hits.
Fall Off: Corbin Carroll
Carrol; had a terrific freshman campaign, capturing the NL Rookie Of The Year Award. However, we fear a sophomore slump is coming. The D-Backs had a very long season, with their run to the World Series and may feel a bit of a hangover coming into the season. Carrol also had a significantly worse second half than the first, with his OPS dropping 100 points. He also hit only eight homers in the second half. Carroll’s numbers were significantly worse than his season average against the Dodgers, Padres and Giants, indicating that with some more familiarity, Carroll’s ability to do damage falls off. With the book out, we’ll see what the burgeoning star can do.
Great Season: Giancarlo Stanton
Stanton has been unable to stay healthy for the last two years. However, people are quick to forget that in 2021 Stanton had a 35 HR, 136 OPS+ year. He has dedicated this off-season to fitness, getting lean and developing a routine that should help keep him on the field. With Juan Soto and Aaron Judge sandwiching him in the lineup, Stanton is poised to see every pitch to hit and light up New York once again.
Fall Off: Kyle Bradish
Bradish had a terrific Sophomore season with the O’s helping lead them to their 100+ wins in 2023. However, we think his third year may wind up somewhere closer to his rookie 4.90 season. The expected stats for Bradish were significantly worse than the real ones. His xERA (expected ERA based on hitting stats against) was 3.77 compared to his 2.83 actual ERA. His SIERA (skill interactive ERA, focusing on the factors of pitching a pitcher controls, while still considering balls in play) was 3.76. With this big of a gap between reality and advanced stats, a regression is right around the corner.
